helmet's ACC Ratings

[helmet]

Based on a model similar to Sagarin or Pomeroy....here are my ratings, which include conference games only, through 2/6/05:

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 1	North Carolina  95.1
 2	Wake Forest	  86.7
 3	Duke	         84.9
 4	Georgia Tech	 74.3
 5	Miami	        74.2
 6	NC State	     73.5
 7	Maryland	     73.4
 8	Florida State	72.6
 9	Clemson	      71.4
10	Virginia Tech	66.8
11	Virginia	     62.0

Home court advantage is currently 1.2 points. Thus UNC would be favored by about 9 at Duke on Wednesday.
It's "calibrated" to an average rating of 76.9, which is the scoring average for league games.
Look about right to everyone? I ran this as an exercise in linear algebra and excel.
The teams are roughly grouped like this:
UNC
------
Wake, Duke
------
GaTech, Miami, NC State, Maryland, FSU, Clemson
------
VaTech
------
Virginia

This implies that VaTech is worse than their 5-4 record and Clemson is better than their 2-7 record.

Just for the hell of it, here are predictions for the midweek games:
GaTech over Clemson by 2
Maryland over VaTech by 8
FSU over UVa by 10
UNC over Duke by 9
Wake over NC State by 14

[Pablo]

Maryland, NCSU, and Ga. Tech are so erratic it's hard for me to say where to slot any of them. That's what's so great about ACC hoops. Anybody can beat anybody on any given night. Well, except for UVA. P. Gillen needs to update his resume' if he hasn't already.

[helmet]

Big 12:

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 1	Kansas	        82.6
 2	Texas Tech	    76.8
 3	Texas	         74.7
 4	Texas A&M	     74.7
 5	Oklahoma State	71.4
 6	Nebraska	      70.2
 7	Kansas State	  69.8
 8	Oklahoma	      69.6
 9	Iowa State	    68.6
10	Missouri	      62.5
11	Colorado	      58.5
12	Baylor	        53.5

home advantage is 9.1 (!)

Big East:

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 1	Connecticut	   74.5
 2	Boston College	73.7
 3	Villanova	     72.3
 4	Syracuse	      70.4
 5	Notre Dame	    68.7
 6	Georgetown	    68.2
 7	Pittsburgh	    66.4
 8	Providence	    65.1
 9	Seton Hall	    64.2
10	West Virginia	 63.1
11	Rutgers	       61.8
12	St John's	     60.5

home advantage is 1.4
Conference games only, through 2/7/05

[helmet]

Big Ten:

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 1	Illinois	      76.6
 2	Michigan State	72.2 
 3	Wisconsin	     71.6 
 4	Minnesota	     68.5
 5	Ohio State	    68.0
 6	Iowa	          67.9
 7	Indiana	       67.1
 8	Michigan	      61.6
 9	Purdue	        61.6
10	Northwestern	  60.1
11	Penn State       54.1

home advantage is 3.5

[Mook]

Pretty interesting...when you mentioned linear algebra, you lost me! :D :cry:

I can't believe Ok. State is a full tier below the Texas schools...seems strange to me. Otherwise, these rankings actually look pretty good.

[Shine]

ACC:

I'd think Miami would be behind Maryland and NC State. The rest looks about right, though I'd look for UVA to make their typical late push.

Big 12:

No way is ATM ahead of Okie State. No way Texas Tech is that high either. No way Oklahoma is that low. K-St much too high as well. This is the one conference that looks REALLY off to me.

Big East:

Only team that looks really out of place is Pitt being so low. I think Providence might be too high as well.

Big 10:

That looks about dead on to me. Maybe put NW ahead of Purdue though.

[PSUFAN]

wow! excellent analysis. big kudos to 'moot.

[King Crimson]

since Texas lost (by alot) at Colorado, and Oklahoma beat ATM twice....kind of hard to figure those.

Colorado also won AT KSU and AT ISU. also beat Missouri. yet, ranked below all of them. ?

the big 8 was a tough league on the road, doesn't surprise me that much that it's translated into the bXII.

[King Crimson]

Oklahoma is 4-2 against teams ranked ahead of them re: Sagarin.

explain that?

[helmet]

Just for the hell of it, here are predictions for the midweek games: (results in bold)
GaTech over Clemson by 2 GaTech by 8
Maryland over VaTech by 8 MD by 15
FSU over UVa by 10 UVa by 1
UNC over Duke by 9 Duke by 1
Wake over NC State by 14 Wake by 11

I'll run it again on Monday, after the weekend's games. I don't think this will end up being any more useful than the sagarin ratings, which take all games into account, but it's kinda interesting.

[G.O.]

like the game, helmet?

[Jeff 2K5]

G.O. you're from Germantown? Nice to see the 301 reppin.

Gaithersburg here.

[Buried_Nick]

Rankings according to Spartan Model goes:

Wake
UNC
Maryland
Duke

The rest? - Who cares?!
Those are the only four that'll get anywhere.

[helmet]

it was entertaining.....but I pretty much passed out right as the OT was starting. My girlfriend woke me up in the middle of the night to say that Reggie Love got into the game.....I knew right then who won.

[G.O.]

G.O. you're from Germantown? Nice to see the 301 reppin.

Gaithersburg here.

germantown/gaithersburg. graduated seneca valley many moons ago. werent you jeff from poolesville? no- jeff near dc. good to see locals.

by the way- isnt that 3 in a row for the terps over the dookies???

[Mustang]

(Consecutive) wins over Duke is a bit of a backhanded compliment but not really a good standard for your team's success. Wins, ACC crowns, NCAA crowns.....are what people notice more. An terps have all three.

[helmet]

updated ratings, though games of 2/13/05:

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 1	North Carolina	92.6
 2	Wake Forest	   87.5
 3	Duke	          87.5
 4	NC State	      77.5
 5	Maryland	      76.5
 6	Miami	         75.5
 7	Georgia Tech	  73.5
 8	Florida State	 68.6
 9	Clemson 	      66.6
10	Virginia	      65.6
11	Virginia Tech	 64.6

home advantage is 3.0

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 1	Connecticut	   73.5
 2	Boston College	72.5
 3	Villanova	     72.0
 4	Syracuse	      71.0
 5	Notre Dame	    68.8
 6	Georgetown	    67.8
 7	Pittsburgh	    66.1
 8	Providence	    65.3
 9	Seton Hall	    62.7
10	West Virginia	 62.6
11	Rutgers  	     61.3
12	St John's	     60.4

home advantage is 1.8

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 1	Kansas	        81.8
 2	Oklahoma State	78.4
 3	Iowa State	    73.8
 4	Texas A&M	     72.5
 5	Oklahoma	      71.1
 6	Texas Tech	    68.8
 7	Missouri	      68.8
 8	Texas	         68.8
 9	Kansas State	  66.6
10	Colorado	      65.5
11	Nebraska	      64.1
12	Baylor	        55.1

home advantage is 5.3

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 1	Michigan State	77.1
 2	Illinois	      76.4
 3	Wisconsin	     69.3
 4	Iowa	          67.9
 5	Ohio State	    67.0
 6	Indiana       	66.7
 7	Minnesota	     66.0
 8	Michigan	      61.0
 9	Purdue	        61.0
10	Northwestern	  60.5
11	Penn State	    53.1

home advantage is 3.9

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 1	Kentucky	         78.4
 2	Alabama         	 77.3
 3	Florida	          72.3
 4	Mississippi State	70.8
 5	Vanderbilt	       69.9
 6	South Carolina	   69.4
 7	LSU	              69.1
 8	Arkansas	         67.7
 9	Tennessee	        65.3
10	Ole Miss	         62.8
11	Georgia	          55.8
12	Auburn	           54.8

home advantage is 6.5

[helmet]

ACC midweek predictions:

Wake over Miami by 9
NC State over Maryland by 4
UNC over UVA by 30
Duke over VaTech by 21

[helmet]

ACC midweek predictions:

Wake over Miami by 9 Wake by 5
NC State over Maryland by 4 State by 19
UNC over UVA by 30 UNC by 24
Duke over VaTech by 21 VaTech by 2

2 close, 2 not.

[helmet]

through games of 2/20/05:

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 1	North Carolina	94.0
 2	Wake Forest	   84.9
 3	Duke	          84.1
 4	NC State	      74.1
 5	Georgia Tech	  73.8
 6	Miami	         73.4
 7	Maryland	      71.6
 8	Florida State	 71.3
 9	Virginia Tech	 66.0
10	Virginia	      66.0
11	Clemson	       65.7

home ad 1.7

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 1	Villanova	     74.0
 2	Connecticut	   74.0
 3	Boston College	73.0
 4	Syracuse	      71.0
 5	Notre Dame	    70.0
 6	Pittsburgh	    69.8
 7	Georgetown	    68.0
 8	Providence	    66.1
 9	West Virginia	 63.0
10	Seton Hall	    63.0
11	Rutgers	       62.0
12	St John's	     61.0

home ad 2.0

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 1	Kansas	        80.3
 2	Oklahoma State	79.3
 3	Iowa State	    74.8
 4	Texas A&M	     73.3
 5	Oklahoma	      72.3
 6	Texas	         69.8
 7	Texas Tech	    68.3
 8	Kansas State     65.8
 9	Missouri	      65.7
10	Nebraska	      61.8
11	Colorado	      61.7
12	Baylor	        55.8

home ad 5.5

Code: Select all

 1	Michigan State	78.1
 2	Illinois	      76.1
 3	Wisconsin	     69.8
 4	Ohio State	    67.6
 5	Iowa	          64.6
 6	Minnesota	     63.8
 7	Indiana      	 63.5
 8	Purdue	        62.3
 9	Northwestern	  59.4
10	Michigan	      58.4
11	Penn State	    51.3

home ad 4.7

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 1	Kentucky	         78.8
 2	Alabama	          76.8
 3	Florida	          72.4
 4	Vanderbilt	       71.5
 5	Arkansas	         70.3
 6	Mississippi State	70.1
 7	South Carolina	   69.4
 8	LSU	              69.1
 9	Tennessee	        63.7
10	Ole Miss	         58.4
11	Georgia	          56.6
12	Auburn	           54.0

home ad 7.3

[helmet]

ACC midweek predictions:

Maryland over Clemson by 8
Miami over Florida State by 0
UNC over NC State by 18
Duke over Georgia Tech by 9

[Pablo]

Wake steps out of conference to go up against 1-27 Longwood. :roll:

[helmet]

That is some questionable scheduling. Even if Wake wins by 500, they still take an RPI hit and risk injury to their players. Prosser should give the starters 10-15 minutes and then play backups the rest of the way.

[Pablo]

Just read R. McCants is out sick for the Tarheels tonight. USA Today has Carolina by 7.

[helmet]

ACC midweek predictions:

Maryland over Clemson by 8 Clemson by 8
Miami over Florida State by 0 Miami by 16
UNC over NC State by 18 UNC by 10
Duke over Georgia Tech by 9 Duke by 4

[KUTTER]

ACC midweek predictions:

Maryland over Clemson by 8 Clemson by 4
Miami over Florida State by 0 Miami by 16
UNC over NC State by 18 UNC by 10
Duke over Georgia Tech by 9 Duke by 4

FTFY

[helmet]

through conference games of 2/27/05:

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 1	North Carolina	92.9
 2	Duke	          86.1
 3	Wake Forest	   82.6
 4	NC State	      76.9
 5	Georgia Tech	  76.5
 6	Maryland	      72.9
 7	Miami	         72.3
 8	Clemson	       68.2
 9	Florida State	 68.0
10	Virginia Tech	 64.5
11	Virginia	      64.2

home ad is 5.3

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 1	Connecticut	   75.1
 2	Villanova	     73.6
 3	Boston College	73.4
 4	Syracuse	      70.6
 5	Notre Dame	    69.8
 6	Georgetown	    67.8
 7	Pittsburgh	    67.6
 8	Providence	    66.5
 9	West Virginia	 64.0
10	Seton Hall	    63.2
11	Rutgers  	     62.1
12	St John's	     61.0

home ad is 2.1

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 1	Oklahoma State	79.8
 2	Kansas	        79.3
 3	Iowa State	    75.4
 4	Texas A&M	     74.4
 5	Oklahoma	      72.9
 6	Texas	         69.9
 7	Texas Tech	    68.3
 8	Kansas State	  65.9
 9	Nebraska	      64.9
10	Missouri	      63.3
11	Colorado	      58.9
12	Baylor	        56.3

home ad is 5.5

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 1	Michigan State	77.4
 2	Illinois	      76.7
 3	Wisconsin	     69.9
 4	Indiana	       68.7
 5	Ohio State	    67.3
 6	Minnesota	     63.9
 7	Iowa	          63.7
 8	Purdue	        61.1
 9	Northwestern	  59.2
10	Michigan	      56.9
11	Penn State	    50.4

home ad is 5.5

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 1	Kentucky	         79.9
 2	Alabama	          76.1
 3	Florida	          72.9
 4	Vanderbilt	       71.8
 5	Mississippi State	70.9
 6	LSU	              70.1
 7	South Carolina	   68.2
 8	Arkansas	         66.1
 9	Tennessee	        66.1
10	Ole Miss	         61.1
11	Georgia	          55.1
12	Auburn	           53.1

home ad is 6.9

[helmet]

ACC midweek predictions:

Clemson over VaTech by 9
Wake over GaTech by 11
NC State over UVa by 7
UNC over FSU by 30
Duke over Miami by 19

[helmet]

ACC midweek predictions:

Clemson over VaTech by 9 Clemson by 2
Wake over GaTech by 11 Wake by 7
NC State over UVa by 7 NC State by 10
UNC over FSU by 30 UNC by 15
Duke over Miami by 19 Duke by 24

weekend predictions:
GaTech over Clemson by 16
Maryland over VaTech by 3
UNC over Duke by 8
FSU over UVa by 7
Wake over State by 2