Commercial real estate crash and urban flight...

[Left Seater]

I believe we are headed to a huge commercial real estate market glut and an associated urban flight.

Companies across the country have said they plan to allow workers to continue to work remotely even after the Rona flu panic is over. Tech, insurance, consulting firms and accounting firms are leading the way. USAA has announced up to 40% of their work force will not return to the office. PWC has said employees who normally work at their clients office will not return to PWC offices.

These are huge blows to cities where corporations pay a large portion of the tax bill. PWC letting leases expire on close to half a million sq/ft of class A office space is a huge hit to Manhattan. Then add to that the employees who move out of NYC because they no longer need to go to an office in the city. The tax revenue loss is huge.

Then add in the pandemic hitting large cites the hardest and riots recently and you have further urban flight.

Will we see our largest cities struggle financially? Will people return in the next year or so? If not do we see some cities fail? Does this lead to a further division of the haves and have nots?

Here is just one article outlining such issues.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.co ... 1592777032

[Softball Bat]

Will we see our largest cities struggle financially? Will people return in the next year or so? If not do we see some cities fail? Does this lead to a further division of the haves and have nots?

Yes, some will, some will, yes.

These unemployment numbers are not due to market forces. They are due to artificial government ordered shut downs of non-essential businesses hence "short term." Corona virus is a natural disaster not an economic sea change.

The U.S. economic system is now in the process of fundamentally changing -- and not for the good of regular people.

What we had is never coming back, ding dong.

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=50281&start=560

Mvscal is an orange jizz-soaked dope.

I agree with pop that society is about to melt down.
Revolution
Civil War
GD/WW2
Covid

Yep.

Most people have no idea what kind of shitstorm is coming.

Normalcy bias.


People think they are just going to "open up" the country and things will sort of slide back into place after a bit of a rocky period?

LOL



No
Freaking
Way

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=51178&p=1023255&hil ... r#p1023255





Lefty, as you describe, we are in a fundamentally changing society.
That is a gentle way of saying we are in an economic shit storm of truly EPIC proportions.

Bankruptcies out the ass.
It is a meltdown.

Your pension?
You think you're getting that?
lol

pffft...

[L45B]

My office in NYC is opening back up next week but with very specific guidelines yet loose obligations, especially employees with kids.

Only a set amount of employees can be in the office at a time, meaning we will be commuting in shifts (optionally).

One of my recruiting agencies in Chelsea confirmed what you said Lefty, especially accounting firms. Managers are finding that their people can do the job from home, in most cases working more efficiently than in the office.

This to me is overall a good thing especially for the work-life-balance of the average office employee. The need for an office as a captive 8-hour-per-day work environment is simply an outdated concept.

[Innocent Bystander]

This to me is overall a good thing especially for the work-life-balance of the average office employee. The need for an office as a captive 8-hour-per-day work environment is simply an outdated concept.

Flips do office work for a third of the cost. Pajeets and chinks subcontract the virtual jobs they're hired for.

American essential workers (the new blue collar) still need to show up in person.

What happens to all of that unused office space? What happens to the owners of that property?

Those are good questions, Left Seater.
What have your colleagues surmised, L45B?

[Innocent Bystander]

Bankruptcies out the ass.
It is a meltdown.

And then what?

[Derron]

These are no big surprises. The fact that corporations took so long to work remotely is what is amazing. Most of us have been doing it for over 20 years. Fuck the big property management and their screw people in the ass triple net leases. They can suck it.

I manage a couple commercial buildings and we had a prospective tenant for a lease come back to us after we had prepared a contract and want a 50% reduction in our already under market by 20% sf rate. They backed out of the memo of understanding and we told them to go pound sand. They pulled this whole covid bullshit thing with us. We have a couple other tenants ready to look at the property so we should be good in a month.

Here is some videos the CEO of Redfin has done talking about this same thing.

https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=redfin+ceo

[TONTO]

TONTO know cites do fine.

Comeback STRONG and comeback to office.

City people pay big-bucks to live in city.

City people love social interaction and love being around people.

City people HATE lack of intimate social interaction.

City people human beings.

NOT isolation people like suburban Tribe.

[Softball Bat]

Bankruptcies out the ass.
It is a meltdown.

And then what?

We can look at the other events MS listed...


Revolution
Civil War
GD/WW2


A lot of death.
Change to the country.
And in our case now -- an economic change. A lot of people in dire economic straits. There will be a massive *FLUSH* and a digital currency will be put in place.
It is not going to be good, and it will not be liberty friendly, to say the very least.

Amerika is going to get fucked up, and it is already happening.

[Bill in Houston]

WTF?

A complete societal breakdown due to a demand shift for commercial RE?

Quite a jump. I think we’ll see something more moderate in the meantime. Closing venues, repurpose building space.

I’m just not seeing this immediate leap to Armageddon.

[The Big Pickle]

I’m just not seeing this immediate leap to Armageddon.

If Dumbokunts win and defund the police in the big cities the only businesses and people will be the criminals....


You can't see it, because you are a stupid stucknut FAGGOT!

[EAP]

TONTO know cites do fine.

Comeback STRONG and comeback to office.

City people pay big-bucks to live in city.

City people love social interaction and love being around people.

City people HATE lack of intimate social interaction.

City people human beings.

NOT isolation people like suburban Tribe.

You're getting dumber and dumber. Too much cum.

[L45B]

What have your colleagues surmised, L45B?

Pretty much the same thing, IB. Folks that work for me agree and have been more productive. The guy that runs my company was really anxious the day we have to lock down the office. Now he is considering a long term temporary office situation. Pre-Covid, we were planning on buying out more office space in our building, now I don’t think that will be necessary.

In NYC, this may be catastrophic. Or, it may force these building owners to open up more residential space in the future. As someone who pays an arm and a leg for a postage stamp apartment, I’m all for this.

What I’m even more for is the remote office worker equilibrium, as I call it. The next step is moving far away out of the city, or exiting the cost of living trap that comes with the city commute. I want to live on the cheap in a postage stamp apartment in the middle of Wyoming, and still make the NYC salary. Maybe travel back to the office 2-3x per year. Hell, I’d even pay for the travel out of my own pocket. It’d be worth it.

[Screw_Michigan]

I want to live on the cheap in a postage stamp apartment in the middle of Wyoming, and still make the NYC salary

But you won't. Why would your employer pay you a NYC salary to pay Wyoming rents? It won't work like that.

[L45B]

I want to live on the cheap in a postage stamp apartment in the middle of Wyoming, and still make the NYC salary

But you won't. Why would your employer pay you a NYC salary to pay Wyoming rents? It won't work like that.

It certainly can be negotiated (at some point) in my particular situation. In general, it may be more difficult. Proof of concept has technically already happened during 3-month quarantine. What does it matter if I’m working uptown at home or across country?

If employers are willing to say bye-bye to the captive office working environment, over time they might be more willing to hire remote workers working from anywhere. And might also be cool with current employees living where they want. This is the way it should work.

[Bill in Houston]

But they’ll pay those workers based on individual productivity and marketplace forces, not what their personal lifestyle expenses are

[L45B]

Yes true.

However, today those market forces include the local cost of living and commuting 5 min - 2 hours to an office, since mostly everyone has to do it.

Remove that completely (hypotheticallly), and it would even out some things on both employer and employee side over time.

Nonetheless, to Screwy’s point, proximity to a workforce (even if working remote) probably still has a value over someone new joining a team in a different time zone.

All I’m saying is C19 has proven a long known fact amongst the traveled office worker—permanent corporate offices are a waste of money.

[Kierland]

In NYC, this may be catastrophic. Or, it may force these building owners to open up more residential space in the future. As someone who pays an arm and a leg for a postage stamp apartment, I’m all for this.

If Capitalism worked maybe.

[L45B]

That’s how it should work, no?

Or should every office building owner who lost all its commercial tenants get a bailout check for being inconvenienced by reality?

[Kierland]

If you believe in Capitalism then yes, but to be fair cities don't help with their zoning laws but then a lot of cities are influenced by the real estate and developer lobbies so it's a clusterfuck.

[The Big Pickle]

But they’ll pay those workers based on individual productivity and marketplace forces, not what their personal lifestyle expenses are

When we want an opinion from Wilma in Houston, you can be pretty sure it won't be about economics.....it will be
about FAGGOTS and cats.

[L45B]

If you believe in Capitalism then yes, but to be fair cities don't help with their zoning laws but then a lot of cities are influenced by the real estate and developer lobbies so it's a clusterfuck.

Yes, it's a clusterfuck.

Not changing topics, DeBlasio.

[Left Seater]

I want to live on the cheap in a postage stamp apartment in the middle of Wyoming, and still make the NYC salary

But you won't. Why would your employer pay you a NYC salary to pay Wyoming rents? It won't work like that.

Why won't it work? If the employer no longer has to pay the cost of an office, rent, utilities, taxes, etc, they can pay the employee a portion of what previously went to office expenses.

I am finding that some employees are much more productive when working from home. Others are less productive and can't wait to return to the office. If I can reduce the size of the physical office space we require, I can then pay my employees more. My accounting person and scheduler have already proven they can be very productive at home and want to stay there. My response has been, "Great, more power to you." My office manager wasn't as productive and has returned to the office. But if a decent number of my full time employees want to work from home and are productive, then my office space needs will go down and my ability to pay my employees more goes up.

The only thing I can see that would make this more difficult would be if say my accounting person wanted to move to NY or CA or another state with difficult processes for employers. Some States make it much easier for a small business to operate than do others. Continuing to offer her health insurance where she is the only employee in the State would also be a huge issue.

[Screw_Michigan]

Why won't it work? If the employer no longer has to pay the cost of an office, rent, utilities, taxes, etc, they can pay the employee a portion of what previously went to office expenses.

Because executives and company are going to keep that money, numb nuts. They're not going to, wait for it, trickle those savings down.

Hate to break it to you, but no company is going to pay NYC salaries to guys living in BFE Wyoming. Maybe for a few years for an established employee, but they're not paying a NYC salary to a new hire not living in NYC.

[Left Seater]

Well if they don't trickle it down to employees then it will end up going to shareholders as dividends. That also helps employees thru their 401Ks and retirement accounts.

But regardless, this ends up hurting NYC. Not having that employee working in NYC and now working in Wyoming, means one less person paying NYC taxes. It also means the employer is likely paying fewer taxes to NYC as well. Empty office space lowers property values which lowers property taxes which means even less tax revenue to NYC.

All of which is a huge issue for the city.

[Bill in Houston]

Well if they don't trickle it down to employees then it will end up going to shareholders as dividends. That also helps employees thru their 401Ks and retirement accounts.

But regardless, this ends up hurting NYC. Not having that employee working in NYC and now working in Wyoming, means one less person paying NYC taxes. It also means the employer is likely paying fewer taxes to NYC as well. Empty office space lowers property values which lowers property taxes which means even less tax revenue to NYC.

All of which is a huge issue for the city.

You have no idea how dividends work.

[Bill in Houston]

Well if they don't trickle it down to employees then it will end up going to shareholders as dividends. That also helps employees thru their 401Ks and retirement accounts.

But regardless, this ends up hurting NYC. Not having that employee working in NYC and now working in Wyoming, means one less person paying NYC taxes. It also means the employer is likely paying fewer taxes to NYC as well. Empty office space lowers property values which lowers property taxes which means even less tax revenue to NYC.

All of which is a huge issue for the city.

NYC could take up that savings through an additional tax assessment. It’s what EverydayAnalPenetration calls being made whole.

[EAP]

Well if they don't trickle it down to employees then it will end up going to shareholders as dividends. That also helps employees thru their 401Ks and retirement accounts.

But regardless, this ends up hurting NYC. Not having that employee working in NYC and now working in Wyoming, means one less person paying NYC taxes. It also means the employer is likely paying fewer taxes to NYC as well. Empty office space lowers property values which lowers property taxes which means even less tax revenue to NYC.

All of which is a huge issue for the city.

NYC could take up that savings through an additional tax assessment. It’s what EverydayAnalPenetration calls being made whole.

hey dumbass southern low IQ boy.

I'm New York City born and raised. We look at southern cocksuckers like you with contempt.
My office was on 59th and Broadway. For you low IQ's, that's Columbus circle. At lunch, we had pastrami, corned beef and tongue sandwiches that were bigger than your head.
Today, you got a communist prick Deblasio ruining a great city. Rudy's turning over in his grave, the motherfucker aint even dead.
Ed koch would be disgusted at this piece of shit mayor as well.
And here's the thing.
Deblasio got 726,000 votes.
The population of NYC is 8.5 million.
So how does this piece of shit communist think he has any kind of mandate whatsoever, with just 8% of the population voting for him?

He's an arrogant top down government control left wing elitist.
He IS the face of your socialist party today.
The American people must overwhelmingly reject this left wing government control.

This November is huge for our liberty and bill of rights.

Bill in Houston is part of the problem. He's the disease. We are the cure.

[Left Seater]

You have no idea how dividends work.

Dividends are deposited into share holder accounts in 401Ks. Those continue to grow untaxed until withdrawal. I get that you have no clue what a 401K is since those turning tricks in Montrose don’t tend to learn about retirement savings.

[Kierland]

Well if they don't trickle it down to employees then it will end up going to shareholders as dividends. That also helps employees thru their 401Ks and retirement accounts.

But regardless, this ends up hurting NYC. Not having that employee working in NYC and now working in Wyoming, means one less person paying NYC taxes. It also means the employer is likely paying fewer taxes to NYC as well. Empty office space lowers property values which lowers property taxes which means even less tax revenue to NYC.

All of which is a huge issue for the city.

Nice to see you out of the bunker and discussing the orange menace you unleashed on us again. Oh wait you are still talking about taxes. Carry on you fat stupid fuck.

[Bill in Houston]

You have no idea how dividends work.

Dividends are deposited into share holder accounts in 401Ks. Those continue to grow untaxed until withdrawal. I get that you have no clue what a 401K is since those turning tricks in Montrose don’t tend to learn about retirement savings.

Very few corps have company stock in their plans anymore. Shareholders who receive dividends are almost all outside of 401ks. The dividends are going to workers.

[Left Seater]

Well if they don't trickle it down to employees then it will end up going to shareholders as dividends. That also helps employees thru their 401Ks and retirement accounts.

You have no idea how dividends work.

Dividends are deposited into share holder accounts in 401Ks. Those continue to grow untaxed until withdrawal.

The dividends are going to workers.

Glad you learned something here. Pay attention and you can learn more.

[EAP]

Well if they don't trickle it down to employees then it will end up going to shareholders as dividends. That also helps employees thru their 401Ks and retirement accounts.

You have no idea how dividends work.

Dividends are deposited into share holder accounts in 401Ks. Those continue to grow untaxed until withdrawal.

The dividends are going to workers.

Glad you learned something here. Pay attention and you can learn more.

No.
Judging from my interactions with Bill from Houston, he ain't learning shit.

He still hasn't learned to wipe shit off a dick before swallowing it.

How the fuck is he gonna learn about finances?