Bowl Pickem Discussion

[Dinsdale]

Since were almost there, and just about everyone has their picks in, I'll fess up:

I logged lots of miles in a vehicle this week, and in my hoopdie truck, I have an AM radio that works when it feels like it, and the display doesn't work, so I keep it on our excellent sports radio station (there's actually 3 in Portland, which is pretty amazing for the market size). Every week during the season, they have numbers guru Dave Bartoo on (cfbmatrix.com). They had him on a couple of days ago, breaking down the bowls.

Bartoo is a trip -- he predicts every CFB game of the season, sometime around April, using some funky datasets. Things like average rank of the recruiting classes from the various services, home and road effect, and coaching home and road effects... goofy stuff. He never changes his predictions, regardless of injuries and whatnot. And he's remarkably accurate, all things considered.

So, I'm driving down an almost-rural road, and I actually took notes (wasn't that easy while driving). For bowls, he uses weird criteria, including Vegas lines and their movement... I think he was over 70% ATS last year, or some shit. But as I got further into the sticks and eventually to my destination, the radio signal faded.

So, in short, for the first 25 games, I went with his picks (although my notes consisted of his winners, since he went thought "mapping out expected points"). Some of them he went into depth about the moving lines, and what were good bets, which was too much writing while driving.

The last 14 games, I went with my gut. So, if my first 25 picks are awesome, I'll be a big believer in The Matrix.



Pretty stoked for tomorrow, let the games begin. Heck, I'll watch any game between two teams that managed to drum up 6 wins, since I know come January 12th (or maybe the 1st, this season), it'll be a long wait until September, so I need to load up as much as possible.

[FLW Buckeye]

You're better off going to the Office wench that owns the March Madness pool every year because she picks her teams based on mascot/colors/unis.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

Bartoo is actually a regular weekly guest on one of the local radio shows here in Grand Rapids, so I've heard him plenty. My impression of him is he sounds like a massive dork. But smart. Although I think he puts a little bit too much stock in recruiting.

I checked out his site one time, but it appears you need to fork over a credit card to access the good stuff. Pass.

[Dinsdale]

I checked out his site one time, but it appears you need to fork over a credit card to access the good stuff. Pass.

Can't blame him for making a buck.

He's a local guy from the western burbs, and he's buddies with the local sports-talk "stars." So he actually comes into the studio for extended segments (I think he works at a local brewery, actually).

Over the years, he came up with a statistical correlation between recruiting ranks and wins 4 years later, and all kinds of crazy shit.

Gotta love a guy who calls his shot on every game in April.

[Carson]

Figured you'd be joining Joey Jones' bandwagon. :?

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

I'm off to a scintillating 1-4 start. Originally had BGSU and Air Force but decided to flip them. :brad:

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

Ive always figured if these insider / betting gurus were so good - why wouldnt they just be raking in Vegas instead of shilling their service on AM sports talk?

Probably because they're full of shit. There is zero chance Bartoo picked at a 70% clip over a full season. Professional bettors who actually make money do so by placing large amounts of money on a small amount of games.

[MiketheangrydrunkenCUfan]

I'm 5-0 and 3-2. There seemed to be a lot of coin flips when I was making my picks, so my two pick sets have quite a bit of divergence. Just hoping to get lucky on one of them.

[Goober McTuber]

Since were almost there, and just about everyone has their picks in, I'll fess up:

I logged lots of miles in a vehicle this week, and in my hoopdie truck, I have an AM radio that works when it feels like it, and the display doesn't work, so I keep it on our excellent sports radio station (there's actually 3 in Portland, which is pretty amazing for the market size). Every week during the season, they have numbers guru Dave Bartoo on (cfbmatrix.com). They had him on a couple of days ago, breaking down the bowls.

Bartoo is a trip -- he predicts every CFB game of the season, sometime around April, using some funky datasets. Things like average rank of the recruiting classes from the various services, home and road effect, and coaching home and road effects... goofy stuff. He never changes his predictions, regardless of injuries and whatnot. And he's remarkably accurate, all things considered.

So, I'm driving down an almost-rural road, and I actually took notes (wasn't that easy while driving). For bowls, he uses weird criteria, including Vegas lines and their movement... I think he was over 70% ATS last year, or some shit. But as I got further into the sticks and eventually to my destination, the radio signal faded.

So, in short, for the first 25 games, I went with his picks (although my notes consisted of his winners, since he went thought "mapping out expected points"). Some of them he went into depth about the moving lines, and what were good bets, which was too much writing while driving.

The last 14 games, I went with my gut. So, if my first 25 picks are awesome, I'll be a big believer in The Matrix.

Looks like you did better without that clown's help.

[Dinsdale]

I think he puts a little bit too much stock in recruiting.

You mean Louisiana Tech QB and former Rivals #1 Jeff Driskel isn't the best player in the country?