Timing the Market

[Mikey]

You pretty much have to go with what you feel. I've seen some articles where some large investors are taking money out in anticipation of a huge correction. They could be trying to manipulate the market though. You can't trust anybody when it comes to the stock market. For a small investor, trying to time the market is usually a loser's game.

I'll probably just stick with dollar cost averaging to the maximum match that my employer will make and hope for the best.

I had the chicken little feeling in 2000, when NASDAQ hit 5,000 and I thought things were getting ridiculous. I was heavy into tech stocks and had seen some of them gain 1500% and more in a few years time. Unfortunately I didn't act on it and watched them crash faster than they shot up. Still haven't completely recovered from that debacle, but it was money that I never had in my pocket anyway. I'm a lot more into diversity now, which tends to insulate you to a certain degree from the crashes as well as the big upturns. My $$ is mostly in a variety of stock funds. The wife has had hers mostly in munis for the past 20 years so the stock bubbles and crashes haven't affected her too much. Most of her bonds are old and in the 5% to 7% range so she just sits back and collects the interest free income.

[Wolfman]

I'm sure everyone is aware of the generosity of the tax code when it comes to writing off capital losses on stock sales.

[Wolfman]

I deal with it every year.

[Trampis]

Feds still pumping money into the market till 6.5% employment happens right?

[Left Seater]

Could North Korea launch a nuke and the market drop 50%? Yea, that could happen too

I was unaware that fish and whales in the South China Sea and western Pacific held stocks?

[Go Coogs']

Since we're on the subject, is there a chance of Fannie Mae rebounding to their 2008 value? .86 a share right now and its bouncing. Are FHA loans that much harder to get or are people getting smart and going with conventional and putting some cash down?

[Diego in Seattle]

Maybe my concern about gold shorts is misguided. According to this article, investors are beginning to believe that gold is overvalued.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspecul ... eat-short/

I have no business in the markets.

But...but...but....Glen Beck said it was a great investment!

[Killian]

Since we're on the subject, is there a chance of Fannie Mae rebounding to their 2008 value? .86 a share right now and its bouncing. Are FHA loans that much harder to get or are people getting smart and going with conventional and putting some cash down?

No, not harder to get. But the new regulations placed on FHA loans as of April 1st make FHA loans less attractive than they used to be. The increase in MIP and the fact that it is now for the life of the loan have rightfully turned people off. Even if they pay down the mortgage to 80%, they can’t get rid of the insurance unless they refinance into a conventional mortgage.

[OCmike]

Since we're on the subject, is there a chance of Fannie Mae rebounding to their 2008 value? .86 a share right now and its bouncing. Are FHA loans that much harder to get or are people getting smart and going with conventional and putting some cash down?

In Silicon Valley, virtually all property prices on everything but condos in the ghetto have rebounded to pre-2008 levels. But Fanny Mae and FHA don't factor into it at all. People trying to buy homes with traditional financing methods are being squeezed out of the market. A real estate agent who was interviewed in a recent newspaper story said that of the 79 offers they received on a home she listed, 4 were by buyers with standard FHA loans and the other 75 offers were cash, and mostly by foreign buyers(and mostly from China).

[Mikey]

Dow and NASDAQ both down this morning.

Is this the beginning of the correction? Time to bail?
I have my 401K ready to dump 100% into money market vehicles at the click of a send.

[smackaholic]

Dow and NASDAQ both down this morning.

Is this the beginning of the correction? Time to bail?
I have my 401K ready to dump 100% into money market vehicles at the click of a send.

Why you be talking down the economy, douchebag. Barry is working night and day (between golf rounds) trying to undue the damage done by the shrub. He don't need negative a-holes like you mucking it up.

[Mikey]

Dow and NASDAQ both down this morning.

Is this the beginning of the correction? Time to bail?
I have my 401K ready to dump 100% into money market vehicles at the click of a send.

Why you be talking down the economy, douchebag. Barry is working night and day (between golf rounds) trying to undue the damage done by the shrub. He don't need negative a-holes like you mucking it up.

The markets and "the economy" don't necessarily have a direct connection. More like a CVT with the effective gear ratio controlled by a bunch of rich a-holes who live in CT and work in NY.

[Mikey]

Thought the end was near yesterday for the Dow above 10K.

Glad I didn't bail just yet.

[Derron]

http://moneymorning.com/ob-article/schi ... ?code=3243

This is worrysome. I'm reading David Stockman's new book right now. I might read Peter Schiff's after that. These guys could be loons. But who knows? We are in uncharted waters.

Exactly. When there is no historical precedent, or any kind of or previous market behavior to base a somewhat rational decision on, everything you do is speculation. Do your research and see what alternative media and people are saying.

[Derron]

or you could learn to read charts and put "stop sells" on individual equities

Why sure you could..or your could get out of the market all together and put your money into tangible assets that you completely control. Real estate, gold and silver, land.

[Derron]

Roach if you're looking to redeem your Gold in 38 years (the time of your chart) you may be able to take a longer term view

On the other hand - Gold just blew through 3 year support levels (S2).
Guessing where a bottom may be had destroyed many investors / traders

the real question is what's your redemption time frame? If you were to start $ cost averaging in around $1300 and were patient you may be OK - but will you need that cash in 5+ year window?

You are missing the point as to why people actually own gold, and I would not expect you to understand it. I own some gold and silver, but it is far from my complete investment and never will be. I don't think Roach, or myself or anybody is really expecting to hold gold for 38 fucking years. There are some of us who feel that our fiat currency based economy is going to collapse someday big time, and your fucking paper investments will be completely wiped out.

I recently purchased some more property. Another 5 acres adjacent to my current location. Straight farm ground. can never build on it. But that property should net me about 8K per acre each year over the time frame I will be alive. I own iron also, iron as in tractors, excavator, farming implements. This stuff has a use and barter value that cannot be measured. I can physically put my hands on everything I own and have invested in.

Works for me, you can keep posting a chart that looks like Mace's EKG after seeing the ass shots of those ewes all day long, and never convince me that means jack fucking shit.

[Derron]

Think about this for a minute - let's say your scenario comes to pass. How exactly do you envision your Gold or land or iron having worth?

Do you think you;ll walk over to a dude with a cow and say "here's an once of silver, for your cow?"

Yeah..that is pretty much how barter works.

So if money isn't going to be worth anything - then how does getting $8K a year from it benefit you?

8K is a relative value statement. In a normal economy easily. In a compromised economy, the product of the land still has value, in barter, trade or other types of market situations. When I have tons of food stored, and hundreds of pounds of meat, that is as good as gold or other trade value. Except to dudes like you who will pussy bleed the minute the stores run out of cheese nad wine.

I own iron also, iron as in tractors, excavator, farming implements. This stuff has a use and barter value that cannot be measured. I can physically put my hands on everything I own and have invested in

"Pardon me sir, I'd like to buy that pig over yonder. do you have change for a tractor?"

Seriously?

Only some paper pushing "economist" like yourself could fail to see the idiotic concept you present. But hey, if you want to trade me your tractor for my pig, we can make a deal. You just do not grasp the concept of conversion of inputs at all do you..?

[Left Seater]

If we are in such dire straights that one is considering trading a pig for a tractor it might not be a bad deal. At that point gas is prolly gone so the tractor is of little use any way.