LCS predictions

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

Tigers over Yankees in 6
Giants over Cardinals in 7

[War Wagon]

Cards over Gnats in 6
Tigers over Yanks in 7

[Shoalzie]

I wouldn't have picked the Tigers to beat the Yankees in either of the previous two meetings had they played in 7 games just because the starting pitching had some weak spots. This time around, this is the best 4-man staff the Tigers have had. The rotation sets up well with Verlander going in Game 3 and 7. I like all 4 pitchers but he's the guy you want out there if this goes the distance. Thursday is what he's been expected to do in a big game. I like that Fister and Sanchez open the series in New York since those two give up the fewest home runs of the four starters and Sanchez would start in Game 6 as well. The middle 3 games in Detroit will be Verlander-Scherzer-Fister...all three are strong at home (a combined 22-8 this year at Comerica). It's quite possible the series might not get back to New York because of the pitching advantage. If the Tigers can get a split in New York, they'll have a great chance to finish it in 5. I'll hedge and say it goes 6.


Tigers in 6
Cardinals in 6

Sets up a rematch of '06 with a similar path to the World Series for the Tigers...had to get through the Yanks and A's then.

[Yer a Fuckin Jerkoff]

Giants in 7 over the Cardinals. I see Bochy outmanaging the new guy Matheny, and the Cards will lack clutch knocks this time around.

Tigers in 5 over the Yankees. It's fitting that Fister pitches games 1 and 5 because he's going to fistfuck the Yankees lineup. Leyland owns the Yankees in the playoffs and this series won't even make it back to Yankee Stadium. Sabathia shelled in game 3 in Detroit. Cabrera is going to bat about .450 in this series against the laughable Yankee pitching.

[M Club]

I was going to start this thread just to throw in the towel because I knew YAFJ was going to fuck it up for the D.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

[Shoalzie]

I feel better that I didn't say Tigers in 5...

[MuchoBulls]

Cardinals in 5

Yankees in 6

[Shoalzie]

The worst thing for Leyland to do is give Meltdown Fiesta another chance since they did salvage the game last night. Then again, I don't have a guy I'd trust that much more in that spot unless the starters want to just throw all 9. This is why I wish they kept Villarreal available and didn't carry another utility player they won't be used nearly as much.

I don't think losing Jeter is a death knell for the Yanks. Ichiro is a natural leadoff man and was their best hitter all night (Ibanez theatrics aside). As far as making up for the presence on the team...well, they're not exactly going to win anyway if Cano continues to do nothing. If the lineup comes to life, they can actually survive losing their captain. They've gotten this far without Rivera.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

Then again, I don't have a guy I'd trust that much more in that spot...

Really? Who do you possibly trust less than a guy who has given up 7 runs in .4 IP? He's a complete disaster with zero confidence right now and his best and only pitch is very ordinary. Guys look like they're taking BP off of him, not even needing to work the count. First pitch, crack. Just use any number of your relievers to close it out. Hell, trot Smyly back out there again. Fuck, put Don Kelly on the bump. Anybody but that disgrace.

[Shoalzie]

Don't take me too literally...the bullpen in general has been shaky compared how rock solid the starters have been.

I'd probably take Dotel as the closer at this point...he's got actual closing experience and he does his job without all the theatrics. Keep Benoit in a setup role since he's been dicey but he has devolved into total gas can mode.

[M Club]

Don't take me too literally...the bullpen in general has been shaky compared how rock solid the starters have been.

Jesus, Capt. Generalites. Yes, the bullpen has been shaky compared to the starters, but only because the starter's have been lights out. Doesn't really say anythign about the bullpen as a whole considering one guy is responsible for nearly all the runs they've given up:

Valgreen: 7
Benoit: 2
Everyone else: 0

[Shoalzie]

When the 8th inning guy and closer are getting knocked around...I say the bullpen is getting knocked around. Considering Leyland is a creature of habit...his two favorite toys at end of the game are unreliable. Fortunately, they've been able to salvage 2 out of the 3 games where either of those two have blown leads.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

If you characterize the bullpen as just Valverde and Benoit then you ignore the fact that five other guys have made appearances and pitched well. Bullpen has been good as a whole. I think Benoit will be fine. Two runs in 3 innings isn't good, but, shit happens. You're going against playoff caliber hitters, can't win every battle. Really, it's just Valverde, who's a walking dumpster fire.

[Shoalzie]

Good on Coke and good on Leyland to just let him close it out.

And now Verlander can put this bitch in a choke hold...would the Yanks dare move CC to Tuesday?

[M Club]

When the 8th inning guy and closer are getting knocked around...I say the bullpen is getting knocked around. Considering Leyland is a creature of habit...his two favorite toys at end of the game are unreliable. Fortunately, they've been able to salvage 2 out of the 3 games where either of those two have blown leads.

Remove Valgreen from the equation and the bullpen has given up 2 runs in 14 innings. It's a single dumpster fire.

[Shoalzie]

When Leyland removes him from the equation, it brings up the class average...but you know he'll go back to him eventually. He's loyal to a fault...that's why he wouldn't say he's outright removing him from the role.

[M Club]

So basically you're saying the bullpen has been stellar. Glad we agree.

[Shoalzie]

You kind of have to look at it from what Leyland's tendencies are. When Benoit and the other guy are his typical 8th and 9th inning guys when there's a lead late, you think the guy is incapable of making adjustments when those two options are failing him.

The bullpen as a whole hasn't been bad...I know that...but the bullpen as Leyland utilizes them is broken. Thankfully, last night he went the unconventional route and just let the hot hand finish it when he even had Benoit warming up. If he can adjust to this...and that's like pulling teeth with him...he won't let a couple of struggling pitchers derail this team's run at a title. He's loyal to his guys to a fault but that's probably why his guys play hard for him.

Benoit hasn't gotten the same heat as the other guy but he had a rotten September and has struggled some in the postseason. I hope he doesn't reach the same flammable level as the disgraced closer. He lead the bullpen in home runs allowed this year...11 more allowed in just 2 more innings pitched than the other guy.

[M Club]

You kind of have to look at it from what Leyland's tendencies are. When Benoit and the other guy are his typical 8th and 9th inning guys when there's a lead late, you think the guy is incapable of making adjustments when those two options are failing him.

Leyland's tendencies come from managing a 162-game schedule. Playoff baseball is a different animal, obvs. There was nothing wrong with running Valgreen (er, you can say his name, you know. You sound 12.) out there in game 1 since closers do occasionally get shelled. We all know the score now, most especially the guy in charge of the team who said Valgreen won't be closing anymore.

Not quite sure if the way Leyland's used the bullpen constitutes "broken." Part of the reason the starters collectively have a point-whatever ERA is that Leyland goes to the bullpen before they get lit up late in the game. All of the guys out of the pen save two are also sub-1.

[Shoalzie]

Leyland does what Leyland does. He's got guys that play specific roles on the team and he's in general got "his guys". Why the hell would Don Kelly be on the postseason roster and not an extra arm like Downs or Villarreal? He doesn't change unless he dragged kicking and screaming. I think two blown leads in inglorious fashion when he's trying to get another contract and another ring before he either retires or dies in the dugout will force a guy to re-evaluate what how he uses the back end of his bullpen.

The frustration with most TigerFan is that he doesn't want to go away from his way. While [cough]Valverde[/cough] blew that lead on Saturday...he's out there because Jimmy wants to stick with his 9th inning guy in a closeout role when anyone who has watched this team knows that guy will not pitch the same way in a non-save situation. The problem is, I don't know who else he trusts in that specific spot when he's already used Coke and Benoit...still had AlAl and Dotel. I hope he continues to do what he did yesterday and just go with the flow.

[M Club]

Leyland does what Leyland does? That's bold. Let me try this:

Dumars does what Dumars does.

LaRussa does what LaRussa does.

Bruce Bochy does what Bruce Bochy does.

If everyone could do it then everyone would do it. Leyland has gotten where he is because, erm, Leyland does what Leyland does.

I can see the frustration with carrying Kelly instead of the extra arm, especially since Coke's regular season inspired zero confidence. But then again, Coke has pitched well in the playoffs before, Villarreal is a meltdown waiting to happen, Downs has a half-season of Major League experience, one of our two catchers is a walking body cast, and one of the most glaring team weaknesses is speed. I can see his reasoning.

And yes, everyone knows Valgreen doesn't pitch well in non-save situations. Then again, the entire playoffs are a save situation. Suppose he should have waited to work him back in during a one-run game, right? That would have gone over well, meaning the only option left you'd have to advocate was to sit him for the rest of the playoffs on the basis of his fifth blown save of the season and first in over two months.

You have this Drew Sharp thing down well. You were probably one of those screaming to bring back Smyly and jettison Sanchez during his shitty transition into the Tigers' rotation. Too bad Leyland did what Leyland does there, right?

[Shoalzie]

Considering the hit-and-miss nature of Dombrowski's success with trade deadline pitcher acquisitions...there was a time where I feared Sanchez was Jarrod Washburn vDos. For every Fister, there's a Washburn. Sanchez really got hot at the end of the season and I'm glad it meant no more Porcello in the playoff rotation.

Leyland pulled the right string last night with Coke in when Verlander burned way too many pitchers on two guys to the 9th. Girardi in his infinite wisdom puts out a handful of lefties at the top of his lineup (yeah, I know it was because he was facing a righthanded starter) so it was the right move to go with Coke to finish it out. Leyland doing the situational thing with the bullpen is working so far...eventually we'll see the Big Potato though.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

Tigers gotta start manufacturing some runs. Not a big deal when you're playing against a team that couldn't hit .200 off a tee, but will be in the WS.

[Shoalzie]

Tigers gotta start manufacturing some runs. Not a big deal when you're playing against a team that couldn't hit .200 off a tee, but will be in the WS.

I thought they did some things in attempt to manufacture runs...Berry stealing second/Infante sent in motion on a 2-1 count...but somebody had to be the rally-killer. The Cabrera double play ended what looked like a promising double play after Infante was held at third.

[Van]

Tigers gotta start manufacturing some runs. Not a big deal when you're playing against a team that couldn't hit .200 off a tee

Sin,

[War Wagon]

Leyland does what Leyland does? That's bold.

but I liked "Captain Generalities" even better.

[Jay in Phoenix]

Mace, sorry I got into this little thread so late, but are you still sticking to your prediction?

Cards in 7 bud.

Hey, how about them Cubbies, eh? How about those World Series Champion Cardinals? How about another title?

Enjoy the playoffs my friend.

[Shoalzie]

I'm glad Coke got to wrap it up...that's a guy that really has taken to that spot. If Jimmy wanted to give 46 a shot at getting the last out and give him a little cookie heading into the World Series...that wouldn't have been all that bad either. Just don't come out looking half asleep in Game 1 like they did in '06...that was the worst $200+ I've ever spent watching the Cards crap on them in the opener. Only Verlander, Infante and Santiago remain from that '06 club.

Now the fun starts with dealing with the NL game...the rotation resets for Game 1 which isn't a bad thing. I'm sure Verlander would love to repay the Cards (if they win) for tagging him in Game 1 in '06. With the DH out of play for two games...Delmon off winning the ALCS MVP has to be in the lineup in spite of his glove in LF. His bat has been too good not to put on the bench. Go with either Dirks or Garcia in RF depending on the starting pitcher.


EDIT: It's becoming a tradition...

[War Wagon]

Congrats to the Tigers and the Tiger fan contingent in here. Way to represent the AL Central.

If you play St. Loser... please sweep them as well.

[Mace]

Mace, sorry I got into this little thread so late, but are you still sticking to your prediction?

Cards in 7 bud.

Hey, how about them Cubbies, eh? How about those World Series Champion Cardinals? How about another title?

Enjoy the playoffs my friend.

I didn't make a prediction, Jay. MGO is wearing the beautiful Iowa Hawkeye helmet for two weeks after the Hawks knocked off Sparty last Saturday. The Cubs sucked this year, and they'll suck again next year, but I have to keep the faith that Theo will bring some talent to the clubhouse in the next two years and get them competitive. Just wait 'til next year, asshole. Oh, and fuck the Cardinals.

[Yer a Fuckin Jerkoff]

Yankees suck

[Van]

The Red Sox only wish they could suck enough to make the ALCS, which you guaranteed the Yankees would not do.

[Jay in Phoenix]

Just wait 'til next year, asshole. Oh, and fuck the Cardinals.

Hmm, looks like Zito and Vogelsong did just that. :x Gotta tip the cap to those two for pitching great games. Matt Cain has me a little nervous for tonight, but Lohse has been solid enough in the playoffs so far, so expect a good game 7.

Thanks for the sweet, sweet love there Mace. Between you and War Wagon giving St. Louis such huge respect, the reverse karma should guarantee the NL Championship. :wink:

[Shoalzie]

I think the Tigers match up better with the Giants but I almost want the Cardinals to win just so the Giants are coming in with the emotional high of making a comeback win...plus, the Tigers will have some revenge on their mind from last time. Either way, I love that both teams are burning their top pitchers to finish this series and they'll have to throw their 3rd or 4th guy up against Verlander on Wednesday.

[Mace]

Just wait 'til next year, asshole. Oh, and fuck the Cardinals.

Hmm, looks like Zito and Vogelsong did just that. :x Gotta tip the cap to those two for pitching great games. Matt Cain has me a little nervous for tonight, but Lohse has been solid enough in the playoffs so far, so expect a good game 7.

Thanks for the sweet, sweet love there Mace. Between you and War Wagon giving St. Louis such huge respect, the reverse karma should guarantee the NL Championship. :wink:

I haven't checked the rosters for the Cub factor but know that Theriot is a Giant this year.

[Van]

These Giants sure have proven to be a serious bitch to kill. Looks like St. Louis is about to double down on being the only team ever to blow a 3-1 lead in the NLCS. They did it against the Glavine/Maddux/Smolts Braves by scoring only one run over the final three games and now they look to be doing the same.

Odd factoid: The Giants have never won a Seventh Game in any playoff series. In about two hours that will no longer be true.

[Jay in Phoenix]

Damn, I can't believe the Cards went down like that. Those last three games were brutal.

sin,

Dinsdale