LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

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IndyFrisco wrote:
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If I recall correctly, Utah did all the fuckin' in that game...primarily the buttfuckin' in da mouf kinda fuckin'. :evil:
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Terry in Crapchester »

Te'o was a great pickup for ND, and possibly saved the class. As Killian noted, this is probably the best Signing Day pickup for ND on the defensive side of the ball since Holtz was coach, if not ever. But losing Moore and Starling hurt.

That having been said, recruiting rankings are little more than a guideline. Player development is much more important. Gerry Faust won a ton of recruiting "championships," but unfortunately, that never translated to anything on the field.
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Keep that skanky wench outta Tuscaloosa. BelievetheHeupel/Frozen is there now. No need to possibly cause him nasty leakage.
:shock: I know some things have probably changed since I was in law school, but I thought every law school required first year students to start in the fall semester.

The first year of law school is something of a rite of passage among the legal profession. It's different, and at times terrifying. You're lumped in with a group of 80-90 other law students, and have all of your courses together: Contract, Torts, Property, Civil Procedure, Criminal Law, Criminal Procedure and Legal Research and Writing (some law schools also have Constitutional Law as a first-year course, but I believe most require you to take it after your first year).

There's an adage about law school.

The first year they scare you to death.
The second year they work you to death.
The third year they bore you to death.
And the fourth year they starve you to death.

There really isn't a fourth year of law school. That last part comes from the fact that most employers are at least reluctant to hire a law school grad who hasn't yet been admitted to practice. And it usually takes the better part of a year to get your bar exam results.

Read 1L by Scott Turow (written while he was a first-year law student; this is his only non-fiction work IIRC, although some of the names are fictionalized); and/or see The Paper Chase for a depiction of the first year of law school.

Memorable exchange from that movie:

Prof. Kingsbury (to student): Here is a dime. Go call your mother and tell her there is serious doubt as to your ever becoming a lawyer.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

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Sudden Sam wrote:Bama signed Tana Patrick
"Oooooh! They did? Really?? How yummy! Me, in a locker room full of sweaty frat boys!"

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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

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Laxplayer wrote:I guess some of these kids like going to schools where they get to kick the shit out of the top dog who also happens to be an arrogant fuckstain.

Nicely done.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Van »

The Seer wrote:
Laxplayer wrote:I guess some of these kids like going to schools where they might actually have a chance at getting some playing time right away, rather than finding themselves buried on the depth chart. Some kids like to know they can walk into a starting position right away, rather than have to compete for one against equal or better competition.
Nicely done.
FTFY
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Laxplayer »

OK Van...two posts in a row.....
I like ND's class, however there are questions that I have about it.
They are in desperate need of D-lineman and they only got one in this class. They are loaded at TE with Ragone, Fauria, Rudolph so why sign another one, let alone two of them. Now maybe they plan on turning one of these guys into an O-lineman but I'd rather recruit a legit O-lineman than convert a TE. I don't see the need for having a long snapper, punter, or kicker on schollie. You can find that in many places. I really like their linebackers, however that seems to be a strong point of their team with their young guys. Maybe they stick with a 3-4 and get these guys more playing time, or they move one of them to a SS, or play a 5th LB in certain situations. Obviously Te'O is a huge get because that may lure other top notch defensive recruits to ND.
their offensive line is ok, and I think they addressed that issue. it's been a weakness the last couple of years but IMO that's because of that zone blocking crap. I like the old school way because it's more aggressive and you get a better push upfield which is what ND's offensive line has been missing the last couple of years.
I like the Shaq Evans pick up but they're loaded at WR. It seems like they're more of a flag football team than a D-1 football team with all these WR's.
their DB's need to get bigger, faster and stronger and better in man to man coverage. They need that lock down type of corner to change the offensive mentality of the other team.

How's that Van?
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Van »

How's that, Van?
All I can say is...

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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

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the images don't come through on my work computer.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Van »

It's just a goofy celebration picture, the purpose of which was to demonstrate my unbridled joy over your previous post.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Laxplayer »

Why thank you Van.....I'll try and get more celebrations.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Danimal »

SoCalTrjn wrote:
Danimal wrote:
SoCalTrjn wrote:Losing Burfict and missing Te'o makes gettign Jarvis Jones paramount to saving USCs class
Most would kill for USC's "unsaved" class.
the Trojans managed to bring Jones in to the mix
My point was that even without Jones you'd have a class most would love to have. Congrats on getting him but that doesn't really relate to what I was trying to say.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Terry in Crapchester »

Lax,

I agree with much of your analysis of ND's recruiting class, but just a few points in rebuttal . . .
Laxplayer wrote:They are in desperate need of D-lineman and they only got one in this class. They are loaded at TE with Ragone, Fauria, Rudolph so why sign another one, let alone two of them.
One of the TE's signed this year was Mike Golic's son, and also has an older brother on the team, so essentially a legacy signing. But I disagree with your overall point here. We lost two TE's to transfers in recent years, first Reuland and now Yeatman (Yeatman's loss also hurts from the standpoint that his second sport was lacrosse. Excluding the service academies, there are only nine schools in the country that play both football at the FBS level and lacrosse at the DI level, the others are Duke, Maryland, North Carolina, tOSU, Penn State, Rutgers, Syracuse and Virginia.) Ragone is trying to come back from a number of serious injuries, and has to be considered a question mark, at best, at this point. Rudolph made every all-freshman team in the country, and rightfully so, but did you see how we used him last season? He was basically a slot receiver rather than a true TE. That helped us in the passing game (created matchup problems for opponents in the secondary), but hurt our running game.

One of the most frustrating things for me last year was just how badly we sucked on third-and-short. At that level, you should convert on third-and-3 or less at least 70% of the time, and at least 80% of the time on third-and-2 or less. If anything, at ND those numbers should be even higher. That, I think, is where the TE position should have come into play, since most teams use a double-tight formation on third-and-short. In that regard, what we had last year is not exactly Fasano and Carlson circa 2005-06.
I don't see the need for having a long snapper, punter, or kicker on schollie. You can find that in many places.
A lot of teams rely on walk-ons to fill these positions. Having said that, however, special teams has been an area of concern for ND especially during the last two years, so recruiting scholarship-worthy candidates for these positions wasn't really a horrible idea. That having been said, filling three scholarships at these positions in a relatively small class to begin with (ND only had 17 scholarship recruits this year) obviously weakens the class somewhat.
I really like their linebackers, however that seems to be a strong point of their team with their young guys. Maybe they stick with a 3-4 and get these guys more playing time, or they move one of them to a SS, or play a 5th LB in certain situations. Obviously Te'O is a huge get because that may lure other top notch defensive recruits to ND.
As long as Brown is the DC, ND will play a 3-4 (although I'm not a fan of the 3-4; in general, I see that as a more passive scheme than the 4-3, although that conclusion might be a lasting side effect of Walt Corey's Buffalo Bills defenses circa early 1990's). So having a number of LB's on scholarship is a must, although you could make a case that ND over-recruited at that position this year. As for Te'o, jmho, but anytime you have a prospect ranked that highly who both qualifies for and is interested in ND, ND has to recruit him regardless of position.
their offensive line is ok, and I think they addressed that issue. it's been a weakness the last couple of years but IMO that's because of that zone blocking crap. I like the old school way because it's more aggressive and you get a better push upfield which is what ND's offensive line has been missing the last couple of years.
I don't see any of the OL recruits this year ready to contribute right away, so to the extent they addressed this issue in recruiting, they didn't address it for at least a few years.

The OL improved in '08 over '07. But in that context, of course, the word "improved" takes on quite a relative meaning. There really was nowhere to go from '07 but up. Hopefully, replacing Latina (ex-OL coach) with Verducci was a move in the right direction.
their DB's need to get bigger, faster and stronger and better in man to man coverage. They need that lock down type of corner to change the offensive mentality of the other team.
This class seemed to be somewhat weak overall as to corners. ND did get a safety but lost the two best ones they were pursuing, both to USC of all places.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Van »

Terry wrote:ND did get a safety but lost the two best ones they were pursuing, both to USC of all places.
Doh!!
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Blueblood »

Time to be realistic...


First of all, recruiting rankings are a joke. Look no further than Notre Dame! Consistently "ranked" with top recruiting classes but a program that's been on the decline for years. Washington had the 14th highest class last year and they didn't win one game last year.

2nd, Cal will never regularly attract the the top tier "prospects" that are also recruited by the USC's, Texas, et al.
Berkeley is still Berkeley and probably will always be Berkeley. To the majority of 17 year old high school seniors apparently Westwood, Compton and Austin look a lot better.

Finally, the Cal community (not just the football community) will always value Nobel Prizes over any possible BCS championships. Football still represents the establishment in one of the most anti-establishment places on earth.






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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Van »

That must be why Jeff Tedford's salary is many times higher than that of any Cal professor. That new stadium they're doing, in order to keep Tedford, it's doubtless due to how much the Cal adminisitration values his prowess in molecular biology.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Killian »

A couple of points:

First, I agree with Lax's overall point re: special teams. Right now, ND has 6 players on their roster that are strictly special teams players. That's 7% of their roster and the special teams still licks angry starfish. If their special teams still suck, it's coaching, not the players.

Second, I think you will see ND go to more of a 4-3 look with Brian Smith in the middle, and Te'o and Flemming on the outside. Ian Williams and Ethan Johnson will play in the middle (with Johnson moving to the SDE position on occasion) with Kapron Lewis-Moore, Hafis Williams, Kerry Neal and Mo Richardson fighting over the two end spots. Williams may slide inside to allow Johnson to play the SDE.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Van »

Are you guys already projecting Te'o to start, as a true freshman? Then, one and gone, for two years?

Hell, I'd redshirt the kid. I wouldn't begin using up his eligibility until he returns from his mission.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Killian »

There's no way that kid will redshirt. I think he will be very similar to Michael Floyd last year. He'll play a little in the first game, much more in the second, and be starting by the third.

And his misson isn't a foregone conclusion. He had his father have both been saying things like "if he takes his mission", etc. I think if he starts early and plays well, he will be less likely to take his mission.

Te'o will be playing the WILL in the 4-3 and be allowed to run and make plays. In the 3-4, he'll line up at the JACK next to Brian Smith.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

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Killian, I'm just surprised you already have him starting. I would think there were other entrenched players in the system, guys who waited their turn and/or are returning starters or whatever.

Not a whole lot of true freshmen start at LB.

Guess we'll see. I'll definitely keep my eye on him whenever I watch ND. When USC plays ND I'll be interested in seeing how that one turns out.

At least he didn't pull some bullshit Dre Kirkpatrick scene when he announced his decision. Gotta admit though that I was surprised to see him grab that ND hat. I was reasonably certain he'd grab the USC hat and if not the USC hat I thought he'd grab the UCLA hat.

Sure didn't see that ND hat coming...

Okay, considering ND's schedule this season what do you think Weis has to do to keep his job? This is his fifth season, so ND will have met their traditional obligation. They can finally shit can him with a completely clear conscience if ND tanks again this season.

Here's their '09 schedule, including my predicted outcome for each game.

Sept. 5 NEVADA (W-If ND loses their season opener at home to this team the conversation ends before it even begins. Weis is gone.)

Sept. 12 at Michigan (L-To me, this is pretty close to being a toss up and it's the make or break game for both these teams this season...especially Michigan. Michigan has to step up in the Big House and show that last year's season long debacle will never be repeated again. The DickRod Era officially begins with this game.)

Sept. 19 MICHIGAN STATE (W-This game determines whether ND will have a real turnaround year. If they're 3-0 following this game, which they very could be considering the key people Michigan St lost this year, Weis could be safe.)

Sept. 26 at Purdue (W-Doesn't matter that it's on the road. ND has to win this game.)

Oct. 3 WASHINGTON (W-Washington will need at least a couple/few years before they return to respectability, plus it's in South Bend. ND should roll here.)

Oct. 17 USC (L-Eventually this streak will end, and this game is in South Bend, so maybe Weis finally earns his first signature win here. Highly doubtful though.)

Oct. 24 BOSTON COLLEGE (L-Simply bad timing. Had this game come before the USC game I would be calling for ND's domination at the hands of B.C. to come to an end here. Following a demoralizing, doubt casting loss though? I think the wind is at least temporarily out of ND's sails. Muscle memory kicks in for both teams and ND finds a way to lose this game.)

Oct. 31 Washington State (at San Antonio, TX) (W-How on earth did you guys manage to get both Washington and Washington St in the same season? Wtf??)

Nov. 7 NAVY (W-This time, with a little breathing room.)

Nov. 14 at Pittsburgh (L-Say what you will about the guy but Wanny does seem to find a way lately to win these late season "big game" tilts.)

Nov. 21 CONNECTICUT (W-Maybe not if it were on the road but in South Bend? ND better find a way to win this one. If ND loses this one that's the final death knell for Weis.)

Nov. 28 at Stanford (L-No strong reasons for this pick. Pretty much a toss up game to me. I'm just going with the growing momentum Harbaugh's building there, plus the home field, plus the fact that ND might've already packed it in by the time they get off the plane to head to Palo Alto.)

Still, only four roadies there, plus a neutral site game against one of the worst teams in D1 football. That looks to be one easy fuggen schedule.

I (shakily) have 'em going 7-5. Would that do it? Would 8-4 be good enough to keep his job, if those four losses include more ugly blow outs to the good teams on ND's schedule?

There's no guarantee B.C. and Pitt will be all that good this year so if Michigan sucks again and Michigan St falls back to being a 7-5 team the potential certainly exists for USC to be the only strong team on that entire schedule.

I don't know. I don't think 8-4 does it. I'm not even sure 9-3 does it, not if the three losses are blowout losses to rivals and there's a few scabdick wins mixed in for good measure. Make it that type of 9-3 season and then end the season with another blow out loss to a potentially good bowl team (which is very possible, considering the type of love 9-3 ND teams receive when it's time select bowl matchups) and I don't think Weis survives.

With John Gruden potentially still sitting out there I'm thinking Weis needs a 9-3 season which includes a win against a rival or two, a decent showing against USC, no inexcusable Syracuse type losses and a good bowl game showing.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Terry in Crapchester »

Van wrote:Killian, I'm just surprised you already have him starting. I would think there were other entrenched players in the system, guys who waited their turn and/or are returning starters or whatever.

Not a whole lot of true freshmen start at LB.

Guess we'll see. I'll definitely keep my eye on him whenever I watch ND. When USC plays ND I'll be interested in seeing how that one turns out.
I can't say at this point whether he'll start as a true freshman. But I think that's somewhat a moot point -- it looks like he'll see considerably playing time regardless of whether he starts.

ND's roster (last season)

We lose a lot of linebackers to graduation. Of the returnees, I would expect Harrison Smith to return to his natural position, safety. And maybe Kallen Wade will move back to more action at defensive end.

If I had to guess, the starting linebackers for the Nevada game will be Kerry Neal, Brian Smith, Toryan Smith and John Ryan. I could be wrong about that, though.

Of the rest of the group to push for playing time, the most prominent (Filer, Fleming, McDonald and Posluszny) are only a year ahead of Te'o, so not a huge experience differential there. Even if Te'o doesn't get significant playing time at linebacker, I would expect to see him quite a bit on special teams.
Okay, considering ND's schedule this season what do you think Weis has to do to keep his job? This is his fifth season, so ND will have met their traditional obligation. They can finally shit can him with a completely clear conscience if ND tanks again this season.

Here's their '09 schedule, including my predicted outcome for each game.

Sept. 5 NEVADA (W-If ND loses their season opener at home to this team the conversation ends before it even begins. Weis is gone.)

Sept. 12 at Michigan (L-To me, this is pretty close to being a toss up and it's the make or break game for both these teams this season...especially Michigan. Michigan has to step up in the Big House and show that last year's season long debacle will never be repeated again. The DickRod Era officially begins with this game.)

Sept. 19 MICHIGAN STATE (W-This game determines whether ND will have a real turnaround year. If they're 3-0 following this game, which they very could be considering the key people Michigan St lost this year, Weis could be safe.)

Sept. 26 at Purdue (W-Doesn't matter that it's on the road. ND has to win this game.)

Oct. 3 WASHINGTON (W-Washington will need at least a couple/few years before they return to respectability, plus it's in South Bend. ND should roll here.)

Oct. 17 USC (L-Eventually this streak will end, and this game is in South Bend, so maybe Weis finally earns his first signature win here. Highly doubtful though.)

Oct. 24 BOSTON COLLEGE (L-Simply bad timing. Had this game come before the USC game I would be calling for ND's domination at the hands of B.C. to come to an end here. Following a demoralizing, doubt casting loss though? I think the wind is at least temporarily out of ND's sails. Muscle memory kicks in for both teams and ND finds a way to lose this game.)

Oct. 31 Washington State (at San Antonio, TX) (W-How on earth did you guys manage to get both Washington and Washington St in the same season? Wtf??)

Nov. 7 NAVY (W-This time, with a little breathing room.)

Nov. 14 at Pittsburgh (L-Say what you will about the guy but Wanny does seem to find a way lately to win these late season "big game" tilts.)

Nov. 21 CONNECTICUT (W-Maybe not if it were on the road but in South Bend? ND better find a way to win this one. If ND loses this one that's the final death knell for Weis.)

Nov. 28 at Stanford (L-No strong reasons for this pick. Pretty much a toss up game to me. I'm just going with the growing momentum Harbaugh's building there, plus the home field, plus the fact that ND might've already packed it in by the time they get off the plane to head to Palo Alto.)

Still, only four roadies there, plus a neutral site game against one of the worst teams in D1 football. That looks to be one easy fuggen schedule.

I (shakily) have 'em going 7-5. Would that do it? Would 8-4 be good enough to keep his job, if those four losses include more ugly blow outs to the good teams on ND's schedule?

There's no guarantee B.C. and Pitt will be all that good this year so if Michigan sucks again and Michigan St falls back to being a 7-5 team the potential certainly exists for USC to be the only strong team on that entire schedule.

I don't know. I don't think 8-4 does it. I'm not even sure 9-3 does it, not if the three losses are blowout losses to rivals and there's a few scabdick wins mixed in for good measure. Make it that type of 9-3 season and then end the season with another blow out loss to a potentially good bowl team (which is very possible, considering the type of love 9-3 ND teams receive when it's time select bowl matchups) and I don't think Weis survives.

With John Gruden potentially still sitting out there I'm thinking Weis needs a 9-3 season which includes a win against a rival or two, a decent showing against USC, no inexcusable Syracuse type losses and a good bowl game showing.
Here's the way I see it:

Sept 5 NEVADA W This actually isn't as bad a team as the San Diego State team that gave us fits in our season opener last season, but it's still a game Weis can't afford to lose.

Sept 12 @ Michigan L I'd actually rate this one in the tossup category, but I'll give Michigan the edge with a home game, and if anything, Rodriguez might need this one worse than Weis does.

Sept 19 MICHIGAN STATE W We haven't beaten Sparty at home since 1993 (series was on hiatus in '95, and we've lost at home every time since), so there's a perfect opportunity here for something of a "statement" game in terms of the program turning the corner under Weis. Don't think that hasn't crossed Weis' mind. And Sparty loses a ton next year.

Sept 26 @ Purdue W Too much of a talent disparity right now to lose this one, even on the road.

Oct 3 WASHINGTON W Again, too much of a talent disparity right now to lose. Only in this case, the talent disparity is even greater than with Purdue, and it's a home game.

Oct 17 USC L We'll end the streak eventually, and we get them at home next season. But playing the percentages, I can't call next season as the one where we end the streak.

Oct 24 BOSTON COLLEGE W Unlike USC, I'll predict the streak ending here. This is also a home game, and unlike in the USC series, we haven't been on the wrong end of a significant talent gap for awhile (in fact, if you look at the recent losses, most have been extremely close games). Clausen's confidence was shaken by the time he got to this game last season. Unless he plays extremely poorly against USC, or the team underachieves big-time up till this point, I don't see it happening two years in a row.

Oct 31 Washington State @ San Antonio W Another relatively easily win (sidenote: WTF was White thinking when he put this game on the schedule?).

Nov 7 NAVY W This should be relatively easy. I don't think Weis will make the same mistake he made last year, i.e., calling off the dogs too soon (lest you forget, with about 5 minutes to play, we had a 20-point lead and the ball in the red zone. Then the reserve offense turned the ball over, the reserve defense game up a few scores, and special teams botched onside kickoffs not once, but twice, making the final outcome relatively close.)

Nov 14 @ Pittsburgh W I don't think Weis loses two in a row to Wanny.

Nov 21 CONNECTICUT W Final home game as well as a talent advantage. We need this one too badly for Weis to blow it, under those circumstances.

Nov 28 @ Stanford W Like USC, this streak will end eventually. And Stanford is improved. But playing the percentages again, I don't see it happening next season.

That's 10-2, although I suppose it could be as high as 11-1 or as low as 7-5. There's still a lot of question marks with this team.

As for Weis, I think 9-3 is the minimum mark he'll need to keep his job, given this schedule. And he may need 10-2.

But it shouldn't be a foregone conclusion that Gruden will replace him.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Van »

Not a foregone conclusion, no, but if Gruden is still available when Weis is shown the door you can be certain his name will be near the top of their shopping list. He'll definitely take the phone call too, assuming he doesn't initiate it himself.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by MgoBlue-LightSpecial »

MSU will be more talented and versatile next year. Albeit younger, but more talented.

I wouldn't be so quick to chalk that up as a W.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Van »

Mgo, won't you be having to break in both a new QB and a replacement for Ringer, your bread and butter?

Seems like Ringer was an awfully large part of the equation there.

But no, I'm certainly not chalking that one up as an automatic win for ND. At this point it's pretty much a toss up pick to me.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Laxplayer »

OK, I'll jump in here. First of all, I'm not a fan of the 4-3. IMO it negates speed. You lose a LB and have to rely on other schemes to cover multiple receiver sets. If you've got speed at the LB position then it's easier to cover the TE and then double other receivers and cover backs out of the backfield. Granted it has a tendency to weaken your run defense somewhat by not having two DT's occupy 3 offensive lineman. I like the 3-4 because with more speed at the LB and DB position you can blitz a lot more and mix up your coverages. In the 3-4 your NG and two ILB's have to be your best players and your corners have to be able to cover man. I'm not sure ND is there yet in the DB category. As far as their season goes I think CW needs 10 wins minimum. Will he get it? Don't ask me.



Sept 5 NEVADA W If they lose this game....shoot me, and Charlie should resign.

Sept 12 @ Michigan W Yes Michigan is at home but it seems ND wins these games when they're not supposed to. Still adjusting to Rich Rod, and another new DC after Scott Schaefer left for Syracuse. Claussen has his second very good game in a row by torching the UM secondary with Floyd, Kumara, Rudolph etc....

Sept 19 MICHIGAN STATE W It also seems that they win this game when they are on the road but at home it's been a thorn in their side. I think they win this one, granted they can come out and lay an egg if they rest on their laurels if they win at UM.

Sept 26 @ Purdue W Can't lose this one. ND's talent is getting better and now with Tiller gone who knows about Purdue?

Oct 3 WASHINGTON W Since Sark has been responsible for a certain team (that I'm not allowed to mention) owning the Irish the last few years, CW and company show him what it's like to be on the other end.

Oct 17 L Home game vs. a team from LA in the ghetto. I can't mention the name of this team, however this may be the year. At home, with long grass a revamped defense for this team and lots of experience on offense. Maybe this one turns into a shoot out. I like the irish if they can get into a scoring fest. The best of what may be two average defenses wins this one. Did I mention the grass will be long.

Oct 24 BOSTON COLLEGE W/L If the Irish lose the game before this I think they throttle the Eagles, however if they beat that intra sectional rival then this may be a letdown game.

Oct 31 Washington State @ San Antonio W This should be a 1-AA team.

Nov 7 NAVY W They are just too talented to lose to the Middies.

Nov 14 @ Pittsburgh W/L You can't lose this one, granted they just may.

Nov 21 CONNECTICUT W Gotta win this one.

Nov 28 @ Stanford W I like what Harbaugh is doing at Stanford. Tough to win there but he's doing a hell of a job. Not at the level of ND....YET, could be a trap game for the Irish.


I agree with just about everyone else. They could only lose 1 game, however they could easily lose 4+. Weis needs to win a bunch of games and by a large margain, then win a BCS game. No more Hawaii bowl or games named after yard tools. He needs a signature win this year. Who could that be? That rival game in October? A big bowl win? Who knows, but he needs to win games that he's not supposed to.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Van »

a team from LA in the ghetto
:lol: :lol: :lol:

You guys play Crenshaw this year??
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by MgoBlue-LightSpecial »

Van wrote:Mgo, won't you be having to break in both a new QB and a replacement for Ringer, your bread and butter?
The former is not such a bad thing. Trust me. The latter is a hit, but honestly, not a devastating one. Ringer's truest asset was his ability to tote the rock all game long. From a pure skill and talent perspective, he is replaceable. The offense was so heavily reliant on Ringer, which worked for and against them. The offense should be more versatile next year and much, much less predictable for good defenses to stop (MSU's predictability on offense is how, in large part, they got slaughtered vs OSU and PSU, imo). Especially if they start qb Keith Nichol, who can get it done with his legs and arm. Also the O Line will be assuredly beefed up which will ease the load on whoever's starting at RB next season, which has yet to be named. They fill in some voids nicely on the defensive side of the ball too. Like I said, less experienced but more talented. We'll see how that works out.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Terry in Crapchester »

Van wrote:
a team from LA in the ghetto
:lol: :lol: :lol:

You guys play Crenshaw this year??
No, but during the Tollner years, that probably would've been a more difficult test for ND. :P
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Laxplayer »

I don't know Van...it may be Dorsey.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Killian »

Van wrote:Killian, I'm just surprised you already have him starting. I would think there were other entrenched players in the system, guys who waited their turn and/or are returning starters or whatever.

Not a whole lot of true freshmen start at LB.

Guess we'll see. I'll definitely keep my eye on him whenever I watch ND. When USC plays ND I'll be interested in seeing how that one turns out.

At least he didn't pull some bullshit Dre Kirkpatrick scene when he announced his decision. Gotta admit though that I was surprised to see him grab that ND hat. I was reasonably certain he'd grab the USC hat and if not the USC hat I thought he'd grab the UCLA hat.

Sure didn't see that ND hat coming...

Okay, considering ND's schedule this season what do you think Weis has to do to keep his job? This is his fifth season, so ND will have met their traditional obligation. They can finally shit can him with a completely clear conscience if ND tanks again this season.

Here's their '09 schedule, including my predicted outcome for each game.

Sept. 5 NEVADA (W-If ND loses their season opener at home to this team the conversation ends before it even begins. Weis is gone.)

Sept. 12 at Michigan (L-To me, this is pretty close to being a toss up and it's the make or break game for both these teams this season...especially Michigan. Michigan has to step up in the Big House and show that last year's season long debacle will never be repeated again. The DickRod Era officially begins with this game.)

Sept. 19 MICHIGAN STATE (W-This game determines whether ND will have a real turnaround year. If they're 3-0 following this game, which they very could be considering the key people Michigan St lost this year, Weis could be safe.)

Sept. 26 at Purdue (W-Doesn't matter that it's on the road. ND has to win this game.)

Oct. 3 WASHINGTON (W-Washington will need at least a couple/few years before they return to respectability, plus it's in South Bend. ND should roll here.)

Oct. 17 USC (L-Eventually this streak will end, and this game is in South Bend, so maybe Weis finally earns his first signature win here. Highly doubtful though.)

Oct. 24 BOSTON COLLEGE (L-Simply bad timing. Had this game come before the USC game I would be calling for ND's domination at the hands of B.C. to come to an end here. Following a demoralizing, doubt casting loss though? I think the wind is at least temporarily out of ND's sails. Muscle memory kicks in for both teams and ND finds a way to lose this game.)

Oct. 31 Washington State (at San Antonio, TX) (W-How on earth did you guys manage to get both Washington and Washington St in the same season? Wtf??)

Nov. 7 NAVY (W-This time, with a little breathing room.)

Nov. 14 at Pittsburgh (L-Say what you will about the guy but Wanny does seem to find a way lately to win these late season "big game" tilts.)

Nov. 21 CONNECTICUT (W-Maybe not if it were on the road but in South Bend? ND better find a way to win this one. If ND loses this one that's the final death knell for Weis.)

Nov. 28 at Stanford (L-No strong reasons for this pick. Pretty much a toss up game to me. I'm just going with the growing momentum Harbaugh's building there, plus the home field, plus the fact that ND might've already packed it in by the time they get off the plane to head to Palo Alto.)

Still, only four roadies there, plus a neutral site game against one of the worst teams in D1 football. That looks to be one easy fuggen schedule.

I (shakily) have 'em going 7-5. Would that do it? Would 8-4 be good enough to keep his job, if those four losses include more ugly blow outs to the good teams on ND's schedule?

There's no guarantee B.C. and Pitt will be all that good this year so if Michigan sucks again and Michigan St falls back to being a 7-5 team the potential certainly exists for USC to be the only strong team on that entire schedule.

I don't know. I don't think 8-4 does it. I'm not even sure 9-3 does it, not if the three losses are blowout losses to rivals and there's a few scabdick wins mixed in for good measure. Make it that type of 9-3 season and then end the season with another blow out loss to a potentially good bowl team (which is very possible, considering the type of love 9-3 ND teams receive when it's time select bowl matchups) and I don't think Weis survives.

With John Gruden potentially still sitting out there I'm thinking Weis needs a 9-3 season which includes a win against a rival or two, a decent showing against USC, no inexcusable Syracuse type losses and a good bowl game showing.
Van,

You have to remember, this is the first time ND has gotten a player of this caliber in their front 7 since the late '90's. And as Terry pointed out, if you look at their depth chart at LB, there aren't a whole lot of players on that list that strike fear in opponets. LB is a hard position for a player to come in and start, but if you play the guy at an outside position and put him in a position to run free and make plays, I think a kid like Te'o could walk in and play right away.

From what I had heard from a few sources, I wasn't that concerned with USC until his official visit. After his visit, some stuff started to come out but I was still pretty confident that he would pick ND. Luckily, that was the first time my gut reaction was right.

As for what Weis has to do to keep his job next year, I really don't know. He was a short hair away from losing it this seasons, but he managed to hold on to it. I think if he goes 9-3 with no blow out losses and then wins the Gator Bowl, he will keep his job. In that example, ND would have a top 3 recruiting class with difference makers at DE, LB, LT and a few other key positions. If you asked me to break down the schedule right now, here's how I would do it:

Nevada - Toss up. Nevada is a better team than most give them credit for and ND will have fits with the pistol formation. It's the first game for both teams, which I think favors Nevada. It's at ND and Clausen will be a junior, which means Weis will have much more confidence in him. Weis will be back to calling the plays, so it will be interesting to see how this game goes. If ND can run the ball, they will win going away. If it turns into a shoot out, I still like their chances but ND will have to make some defensive stops. I'll say W, 1-0.

Michigan (a) - Win. Michigan will be much improved, but it will be only their second game of the season with either a freshman at QB, or a guy that doesn't fit their system. It remains to be seen how Greg Robinson will be as a DC, but I think ND will win a close game in AA. 2-0.

MSU - Toss up. This is never an easy game for ND, no matter the circumstances. MSU has had ND's number since the Davie years, but they will be breaking in a new QB and a new RB. Clausen being a junior and in the system for 3 years will be a huge benefit in this game. I'll say another close win, 3-0.

Purdue (a) - Garbage, 4-0.

Washington - Have fun digging out from Scoarched Earth Ty. 5-0.

USC - This will be the best chance ND has ever had at beating USC under Weis. If you look at the roster, this is the closest ND has been in talent on paper (although there is still a ways to go) and USC will be breaking in a new QB that will be playing for the first time in this rivalry. Add to that the loss of Rey-Rey and Cushing, ND has a shot if they try to ball controll like they did in 2005 and try to see if they can force the new QB into some bad throws. I like their chances, but no ND fan can predict a win here until they see how they play in the first 5 games of 2009. Loss, 5-1

BC - Classic trap game coming off a huge game against SC. BC will have a new coach, which should benefit ND. ND has been incredibly unlucky in their games against BC, and BC has capitalized every time for a win. I think ND will break the streak and beat BC. 6-1.

WSU (n) - Garbage, 7-1

Navy - If they can control the clock and play defense like they did last year (for the first 55 minutes), this should be a cake walk. 8-1

Pitt (a) - ND gifted the game to them last year, and that was when they had McCoy. There is no excuse for ND to lose this game. 9-1.

Conn - Senior day for Weis's first full recruiting class. Expect to see the green jerseys and ND should win this game. 10-1

Stanford - Playing at Stanford is always tricky. Harbaugh has done a lot with that program, but I think he's a year or two away. 11-1.

Bowl - BCS game, likely loss. But it should be close.

So, ND should go 11-2 with that schedule and how they stack up against other teams. My guess is that they will lose one of their first three games, lose to USC, and lose to either Pitt or BC for a 9-3 record. That would put them in a Gator Bowl type game that they should win.

Should Weis falter, I think Swarbrick will make a play for Gruden early and get him locked up. I don't know if that would be the smartest move, but it would be interesting.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Van »

Mgo, I'm never too confident about a CF team's chances when they go into a season having to replace a multi year starter at QB. In MSU's case you can also add the fact that their entire offensive identity centered around a guy who's no longer there.

I also expect better seasons from Michigan and Wisconsin, and possibly Iowa too. (Of course I also obviously expect less from Penn St this season.)

Adding it all up, to me it just has the feeling of a season that will be one continuous growing pain for MSU. I'd expect a lot of fits and starts. A lot of mistakes. A lack of offensive consistency. Shaky results in the red zone. Loads of missed opportunities leading to unfinished drives.

I have a feeling they'll be a very raw, unpolished product; a constant work in progress. Having a firm identity is a huge asset, even if it does make you predictable. Predictably unstoppable is a good thing. They weren't unstoppable with Ringer but they knew who they were and all things being equal their consistency allowed them to line up and out execute other teams. It wasn't until they faced superior talent that they were in trouble and that wasn't going to be the case very often.

Superior talent will always pose problems anyway, even if you're not predictable.

MSU isn't going to suddenly have superior talent so it's still better to have some definite "go to" strengths. Having to search for an identity and consistent execution whle only having equal talent at your disposal is usually not a recipe for sustained success.

I hope I'm wrong about MSU this season. I've always rooted for MSU as the underdog in the Big 10. I've always liked it when on those rare occasions they got over on Michigan.

I'm no fan of DickRod and I don't like his spread offense so I'll continue to root for MSU...
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Van »

Killian, for you to feel pretty good about your chances going into Te'o's announcement you obviously had better knowledge than I did about what was going on with Te'o.

Most of the "experts" had Te'o going to USC, once BYU fell out.

As for USC-ND, so much of what will happen in that game and what we all think will happen in that game will be predicated on what happens when USC takes early season roadies to Columbus and Berkeley.

For the sake of argument let's see USC rolls into The Shoe and flattens Ohio St again. Mustain (or Corp) looks solid and poised, the offense doesn't look tentative and the shackles of the Sarkisian Era are gone, leaving USC's talent the opportuunity to run free and dominate.

They're returning their entire offensive line, their best receivers, their TE and all their running backs. They return the best pair of safeties in the country and while they're young on defense they're also talented as hell, a situation which seemed to serve Florida well this past season.

They're loaded. They play like it. They again make Pryor look primitive and they roll up a comfortable win in one of the most hostile environments in all of CF.

Then, three weeks later, they roll into Berkeley and piss all over m2 again. Jahvid Best carries twelve times for eighteen yards before leaving the game with a sprained yeast infection. The sun is shining this time so the field isn't a mess and USC wins 30-3.

At that point USC likely rolls into South Bend 6-0 and ranked either #1 or #2 in the country, depending on what Florida's done to that point. The Red River Shootout takes place on the same day as the USC-ND game so there's no way Texas or OU will go into that game ranked ahead of USC, not when USC has already chalked up huge road wins in Columbus and Berkeley.

So it's ND vs an undefeated and (at worst) #2 USC team.

Sorry, Charley. You're getting destroyed again. Pete is pissed off this season. He wants back into the crystal football game and he's finally come to accept the reality that killing people and winning with style points not only matters but it's a flat out necessity these days, especially for USC and the Pac 10.

Basically, ND had better hope that USC trips up in Berkeley or Columbus, otherwise USC will lay another thirty point beat down on ND. No way their train gets derailed by Charley Weis. Dude had better hope that train has already left the tracks.

Now, for the sake of argument, let's say the opposite happens. Le'ts say neither Corp nor Mustain prove to be the clear winner for the job. Neither guy stands out. They both just look meh. Also, the new OC turns out to be a dyed in the wool "dazzle and amaze and otherwise try to do too much and just plain handcuff and frustrate your offense" disciple of Steve Sarkisian.

Dude continues Sarkisian's maddening habit of trying to placate too many stars. All the running backs rise up in revolt, like Belushi listening to a folk singer.

USC is making mistakes, left and right. They have fuckall continuity on offense. They have no clue as to whether they want to be a running team, a throwing team, both or neither.

Strictly by dint of talent they're still winning, mostly, but it's always an ugly 24-14 type affair.

In effect they look like Ohio St!

They roll into South Bend a wholly dispirited 4-2. The wheels have fallen off, relatively speaking. All they still have to play for now is a chance at another fucking Rose Bowl, contingent on Cal eventually waking up and remembering who they are and dutifully gagging it away.

There's your huckleberry. There's where Charley Weis has the opportunity to end this thing.

Take it one step further. Holy crap. ND beats Michigan and MSU, then they beat...USC!

There's nothing too shit hot difficult left on their schedule. ND is looking at the possibility of running the table!

Holy crap!





Unfortunately Florida then beats them 49-2 in the title game.

:lol: :lol: :lol:
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Terry in Crapchester »

Van wrote:Killian, for you to feel pretty good about your chances going into Te'o's announcement you obviously had better knowledge than I did about what was going on with Te'o.

Most of the "experts" had Te'o going to USC, once BYU fell out.
Not that I would necessarily call them experts, but the consensus at ND Nation the day before Signing Day was that Te'o was headed to UCLA. I should note, however, that I think there was an ulterior motive for that.

What I think was happening was that they didn't want to predict ND for fear of jinxing us. And they didn't want to predict USC because, well, they just didn't want to see him wind up at USC. That left UCLA as the only alternative, although it would have seemed to me, just from a common-sense perspective, that UCLA probably wasn't more than the third choice, unless there were some very unusual things in play that I didn't know about.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Killian »

Van,

I'm not trying to sound like an ass, but like I told JON, most of my opinions on ND and what is going to happen are more than opinions. Yet, if you read my sig, you can obviously tell that there are two seperate factions within ND. My "opinions" come from one side and it appears that the other side wins more than it loses. That's frustrating. But when it came to Te'o, I didn't know for sure but a lot of the stuff I was hearing led me to believe that ND had a great shot for him. A lot of stuff that family was doing, asking, saying added up to their son going a long way from home.

I agree, in part, of what you said about the season. Maybe Charlie caught Petey by surprise in 2005, but that USC team was one of the most talented college teams I have ever seen. Charlie got ND up to play in that game and they played over their heads and should have won that game. ND's overall talent level from then until now is drasticly higher. The problem is that I don't know if Clausen is the leader that Quinn was, and I don't know if Weis can recapture the playcalling swagger he had in 2005.

USC steps on it's own dick at least once a season. It's usually not against ND, but it does happen, every year. On the flip side of your comments, if ND starts the year by beating Nevada by 17+, dominating a rebuilding UofM team, beating a pesky MSU team, and crushing Purdue and Washington before USC, with Clausen playing well by not turning the ball over and getting it to Floyd, Tate, Rudloph and Allen taking the RB spot and becoming a true all purpose threat, ND will be very hard to stop on offense. This will all be predicated on the offensive line. They will need to find a LT from Paul Duncan, Matt Romine and Trevor Robinson. And the rest of those guys have to stay healthy and start playing like upper classmen. They have a new OL coach in Frank Verducci who is an accomplished OL coach who at least knows the zone scheme.

It is going to be an interesting game, and I don't think it is going to be a blow out.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Van »

Terry, you're talking about people with a rooting interest. I'm not. I'm talking about all the paid recruiting "experts" who feed us all the info we use when we try to sound smart as we talk online about kids we've never seen.

Those experts mostly had Te'o committing to USC, once BYU fell out. ND was supposed to be the least likely, following UCLA.

I couldn't begin to tell you how or why they came up with that consensus opinion but it was the consensus opinion once you got away from everybody's fan boards.

Hell, the USC boards pretty much already had Te'o playing alongside Burfict, creating Maualuga/Cushing, The Sequel. They had Te'o as a done deal.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Van »

Killian wrote:ND's overall talent level from then until now is drasticly higher.
Not sure if you're saying ND's talent level was higher in '05, or now?

I'd definitely say it was higher in '05. With Quinn and Eyechart you were a much more talented and dangerous team than you've been ever since.

Your offense in '09 is coming off an atrocious season. This was the offense that set a two year record for historical futility. This was the offense that didn't manage a single first down against USC until the final play of the third quarter.

This is the offense that you're counting on in '09.

Need I remind you of the definition of insanity?

That '05 team had some players. This current team hasn't demonstrated that they have a single one, and that includes Calvin under center.
The problem is that I don't know if Clausen is the leader that Quinn was, and I don't know if Weis can recapture the playcalling swagger he had in 2005.
In '05 Weis had Ty's players. Now he has his own. That is where you need to begin your questions.
USC steps on it's own dick at least once a season.
It was only a few short years ago that USC ran the table two straight years. It's not a given that they'll step on their dicks during the regular season.

In fact, I'll flat out state for the record that I believe were it not for a fuckload of key injuries USC doesn't step on their dick in '07.

The Oregon loss, maybe they still lose that one if they have their QB and a healthy O line. I don't think so, but maybe. The Stanford loss, minus even more injuries? Not a chance in hell.

The losses in '06, to Oregon St and UCLA, those were inexcusable, especially the UCLA loss.

This year's loss to Oregon St was bad. It was one bad half of football, on the road, in conference, on a Thursday Night ESPN Game. Oregon St turned out to be a pretty good team. They were just as good as the team that beat Florida in The Swamp this season. That was a trap game for USC, big time, but they did allow themselves to fall for the trap.

Yeah, they stepped on their dicks in that one, and in the two losses in '06. They also were within one play of running the table this season.

Just saying, don't consider it gospel that USC will always trip up somewhere during the regular season. '04 and '05 weren't that long ago.

That being said, no, I certainly don't think USC runs the table next season. I gave them a better than decent chance at it before Sanchez bailed, but not now.
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Killian »

The problem that comes up when you reach the talent level that USC has now is that it is at critical mass. There are two fall outs because of this. The first is that the team expects to win every game, even if they just show up. The second is that while you are still getting studs at every position, it starts to thin out and kids realize that they can go to other schools and play right away. It's a gradual thing, but it leaves teams with holes for whole classes or at least certain positions. USC hasn't reached the second fall out, yet, but they have reached the first.

ND has much more talent now, across the board, than they did in 2005 and 2006. What people forget is that Quinn had two very, very average seasons before 2005 and most viewed him (before the season started) as a big kid that had horrible accuracy problems and forced balls into coverage. Samardzija had a grand total of about 30 receptions before 2005, Stovall was a fat, lazy WR who was on his way to oblivion and Walker was coming off a decent freshman year. ND had little depth that year and luckily for them, they didn't suffer many injuries. One key injury was DE Chris Frome blowing out his knee in the USC game. He wasn't a world beater, but he at least held his own. There are still cleat marks on Ronald Talley's back from the Fiesta Bowl.

I think it has been demonstrated that Golden Tate and Michael Floyd are both very good players. Clausen has been streaky, but if he makes the jump from his Soph year to Junior year that many QB's make, he could become an excellent QB next year. If he stays off his ass and stays away from the nagging injuries that have plagued him for two years he has a chance to be very, very good.

On the defensive side of the ball, Darrin Walls, Raeshon McNeil and Robert Blanton are all better than the CB's that ND had in 2005 (Ambrose Wooden, Mike Richardson and Terrail Lambert). The safeties are also better now with Kyle McCarthy and Harrison Smith than in 2005 (Zbikowski and Ndukwe). The LB's may be a wash, but the defensive line isn't on the same level.

The offense would be very close, if they continue to progress. The "Ty's players" doesn't hold water, yet. We'll see how Weis coaches with upper class talent like he had in 2005. If he shits the bed again, I'll buy the "Ty's players" theory. If he produces similar results this year as he did in 2005, that tired argument can be put to bed once and for all.
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Van
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Van »

Killian, the other aspect of this critical mass of talent thing is unrealistic expectations.

USC is now damned by their own success. People constantly talk these days of USC "always stepping on their dick, at least once per season."

Well, they're supposed to do that. They're supposed to lose a game or two every season. Running the table is supposed to be very difficult, and very rare. These days almost nobody runs the table in BCS conferences.

The other guys are trying too, ya' know, and these are merely twenty year old kids we're talking about here, not robots. They're not going to feel and do the efficient, mature thing, every time.

Look, any time USC, Florida or Texas loses a game it's a game they were very likely favored to win. That's why they're called upsets and that's why we still go ahead and play the games. The favorite doesn't win every time, in anything.

For some reason though people don't seem to remember this when they're talking about USC. Other teams of their stature don't seem to be held to the same "no room for error" standard to which USC is now held. Any loss by USC is unforgivable, period. Losses by other BCS teams are easily rationalized away, even if they were home losses or double digit losses.

Conference losses in the Pac 10 indicate a horrible conference. Conference losses in the SEC and Big XII indicate conference depth.

Those SEC and Big XII teams with home losses and double digit losses still get invited to the dance. USC doesn't, despite never suffering such losses.

This has become a fact of life for USC. Pete seems to've finally come to realize it and from all accounts he's both pissed and motivated by it. That's why I really expected USC to run the table next season, had Sanchez returned. By all accounts it looked like Pete was going to try to simply crush people next season; no letting up on the gas, no being content with winning the Pac 10 and going to the Rose Bowl. It seems he finally realizes he has to be perfect if USC is to win the beauty pageant and it seems he's finally decided that winning the beauty pageant is even more important than winning the Rose Bowl.

No losses. None. No close calls. No conservative, strategic defensive battle wins.

Gotta put up big points, and big margins, every time. Win with style points. Perfection, or no invitation to the big dance. '04 and '05, every time, or it's a consolation bowl for you. Be perfect or somebody else who's also imperfect will always get chosen ahead of you.

But hey, at least they're not Utah.
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Van
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Van »

BTH, in this instance the SEC had the home loss team. The Big XII had the double digit loss team.
Joe Satriani is a mime, right? - 88

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Van
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Van »

Exactly. A road loss, by one play, on an ESPN Thursday Night Game. Somehow though that loss was unforgivable while Florida's loss in The Swamp was completely forgotten. Didn't matter that Ole Miss was unranked and ended up with the same record as Oregon St.

The year before LSU's two losses were overlooked, despite the fact that they were to unranked teams and one of 'em was at home and it came on the final weekend of the season.

No matter what a loss in the Pac 10 always gets treated as an indictment of the league while a loss in the SEC always gets treated as proof of the league's toughness.
Joe Satriani is a mime, right? - 88

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Van
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Re: LOI Day, how is your school going to fare?

Post by Van »

The Big XII was the conference with the team who lost by double digits.

One beauty pageant contestant lost a game at home to an unranked team. The other beauty pageant contestant lost a game by double digits.

USC did neither. They lost on the road, by one play, to a team that was every bit as good as the team which beat Florida in The Swamp.
Joe Satriani is a mime, right? - 88

Show me your dicks. - trev
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