Bored at work...here's a realignment prediction...

[War Stoops]

After all the dominoes fall, here's how I see the superconferences shaping up. Tell me where I'm wrong (probably lots of places).

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Pac 16 West:
USC
UCLA
Cal
Stanford
Oregon
Oregon State
Washington
Washington State

Pac 16 East:
Utah
Colorado
Arizona
Arizona State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Texas Tech
Texas

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B1G West:

Nebraska
Missouri
Kansas
Iowa
Wisconsin
Minnesota
Illinois
Northwestern

B1G East:

Michigan
Michigan State
Ohio State
Notre Dame
Indiana
Purdue
Penn State
Pittsburgh

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SEC West:

Texas A&M
Arkansas
LSU
Mississippi
Mississippi State
Alabama
Auburn
Kentucky

SEC East:

Florida
Georgia
South Carolina
Tennessee
Vanderbilt
West Virginia
Virginia Tech
North Carolina State

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ACC North:

Syracuse
Boston College
Rutgers
Virginia
Pittsburgh
Connecticut
Maryland
Louisville

ACC South:

Florida State
Miami
USF
Georgia Tech
North Carolina
Duke
Wake Forest
Clemson

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Fucked:

Kansas State
Iowa State
Baylor
Cincinnati
UCF
TCU

[Roger_the_Shrubber]

I would LOVE to see a sports report on the creation of the Fucked conference.

[Shoalzie]

Interesting list...

Fucked:

Kansas State
Iowa State
Baylor
Cincinnati
UCF
TCU

I have a weird feeling Notre Dame still wouldn't go into a conference with this going down. Kansas State or Cincinnati would be possible fits in the B1G if Notre Dame doesn't move to a conference.

What about the likes of Boise State and BYU? You wonder if there will still be independents and if D-I just goes with 64 teams and the rest are in a separate tier. Basically any team not in a BCS conference (sans Notre Dame) is pretty much treated like their D-II anyway...just end the charade and make the BCS schools their own level.

[Go Coogs']

Fucked:

Kansas State
Iowa State
Baylor
Cincinnati
UCF
TCU
And all the other mid-major schools who were making a little money under the current system

FTFY

[Killian]

Kansas State or Cincinnati would be possible fits in the B1G if Notre Dame doesn't move to a conference.

Not a chance in hell either of those schools would ever be asked.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

Looks pretty good to me, except I doubt TCU would wind up on the "Fucked" list. Somebody would want them.

[Go Coogs']

Boise didn't even make the fucked list.

How can Boise be "fucked" if they were never in a BTPFC to begin with?

[Bizzarofelice]

k st will add "community college" back to their name

[MiketheangrydrunkenCUfan]

I'm guessing Pitt might have a problem with the logistics of this plan...

[Terry in Crapchester]

I think the B1G is way off. First, I don't think the conference has any interest in Mizzou, Kansas or Pitt. Second, on the off chance that I'm wrong, there's simply no chance that ND would be willing to join under those circumstances. There simply is no incentive for ND to join the B1G under this scenario, which would require ND to play a minimum of four road games per season in the midwest. In that case, ND is more likely either to remain independent or join the merged ACC/Big East.

I also think Cincinnati is more likely to wind up on the right side of this equation than Louisville, if only because of the amount of talent in Ohio. Also agree with Mgo on TCU, and possibly Baylor gets in as well (again, if only because of location in Texas).

I don't have time to make full predictions now, I'll try to make them later. But I think the ultimate realignment depends on a few factors:

1. Whether it takes place all at once, or in two more major shifts (either one is possible).

2. ND.

3. Texas.

[Terry in Crapchester]

After giving this some thought, I'm not sure that the 4 x 16 format will ever become a reality. From what I'm hearing ND is a sine qua non of any future B1G expansion, and if that's true, that means that ND could singlehandedly block such a formation . . .

With that having been said, I'll assume that the 4 x 16 format becomes a reality, in which case I would predict it to go down something along the following lines:

SEC
East: Clemson, Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, Vanderbilt.
West: Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, LSU, Mississippi, Mississippi State, Missouri, Texas A&M.

I'm not a fan of ESPN in general or Gottlieb in particular, but I think they might have gotten this one right, but just jumped the gun a little. The Meatgrinder's no vote on aTm sounded to me more like a "not right now" than a "never," and as King Crimson suggested, it's possible they didn't have all their ducks in a row for expansion beyond aTm. That would tend to suggest that the eastern additions are more along the lines of FSU and Clemson than North Carolina (or N.C. State) and Virginia Tech.

B1G

East: Indiana, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan State, Notre Dame, Ohio State, Penn State, Syracuse
West: Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Purdue, Texas, Wisconsin

As I said, the B1G apparently has a ND or bust policy on expansion, and is very interested in Texas as well. If the expansion goals are to get ND onboard and get the BTN on first-tier cable in a significant portion of the country, the expansion plan that makes the most sense is to add Texas and two eastern schools (I'm not necessarily wedded to Maryland and Syracuse here, that's only an educated guess, but the B1G could consider BC, UConn, Rutgers, Virginia and possibly Pitt here as well). I think that's what the B1G ultimately does. Putting tOSU and Michigan in the same division will engender more controversy than adding Texas and two eastern schools, but that probably will be necessary to get both ND and Texas onboard (alternatively, if tOSU and Michigan insist on retaining the Leaders and Legends divisional concept, look for the B1G to drop one existing member -- likely Minnesota or Northwestern -- and add a third eastern school, putting two eastern schools in each division).

Pac-16

East: Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, Colorado, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas Tech, Utah
West: Cal, Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford, UCLA, USC, Washington, Washington State

Why Baylor? With four California schools in the West Division, I don't think the Pac-16 has any choice but to double down on the state of Texas for the East. If Texas winds up in the B1G, that leaves Baylor for the Pac-16 (although TCU or Houston are also potential possibilities).

Big East/ACC

East: Boston College, Connecticut, Duke, Miami/UCF*, North Carolina, Rutgers, South Florida, Virginia
West: Cincinnati, Georgia Tech, Houston, Kansas, Pittsburgh, TCU, Virginia Tech, West Virginia

East/West alignment rather than North/South alignment to get the Florida and Texas schools in separate divisions, and guarantee every member at least one road trip to either state every year. Georgia Tech, in particular, might not be happy about being placed in the West here, but better there than in the "fucked" category.

Fucked:

Iowa State: Tiny media market, no significant tradition of winning, and being a member of a conference that stands to be balkanized severely in this process spells disaster.
Kansas State: See Iowa State. The fact that Kansas apparently is willing to advocate on their behalf probably gives them a slightly (emphasis on that word) better chance than Iowa State.
Wake Forest: IIRC, Wake is the smallest school in terms of enrollment at the BCS level. Media market size isn't an issue for them, but their media market will be represented by other schools that will make the cut. Tobacco Road won't have anywhere near the clout in a superconference setting that it has in the current ACC, and considerably less than it had in the old school ACC. Being a private school won't help them, in that the Big East/ACC superconference will have plenty of other private options -- Duke, Miami (if the program doesn't get dropped as a result of NCAA infractions) and likely at least one school from among BC/ND/Syracuse.
Miami/UCF*: One of these schools will be on the right side of this equation, the other will be fucked. Ordinarily, that would be a no-brainer, but given the current allegations against Miami and the possibility of the program being shut down either voluntarily or involuntarily makes it a possibility for UCF.
Louisville: No apparent negatives, but I think it comes down to either Cincinnati or Louisville in the Big East/ACC. In that case, I think the conference goes with Cincinnati, because of more talent in Ohio than in Kentucky.
North Carolina State: Arguably the unkindest cut of all. It comes down to a numbers game, and the final two slots in the Big East/ACC go to Rutgers and Houston because those schools are located in areas of greater need to the conference than is N.C. State. Note: If the B1G drops an existing member and adds a third eastern school, I think N.C. State goes to the East Division of the Big East/ACC, and the school dropped from the B1G goes into the "fucked" category.

[Goober McTuber]

After giving this some thought, I'm not sure that the 4 x 16 format will ever become a reality. From what I'm hearing ND is a sine qua non of any future B1G expansion, and if that's true, that means that ND could singlehandedly block such a formation . . .

Do you honestly believe that if all of college football becomes committed to the idea of 4 super conferences, that Notre Dame could single-handedly block it?

[indyfrisco]

Do you honestly believe that if all of college football becomes committed to the idea of 4 super conferences, that Notre Dame could single-handedly block it?

Yes, he does. He truly and honestly believes the world of college football revolves around Notre Dame. Do a search on his posts. Look at how many topics have absolutely nothing to do with Notre Dame and he feels the need to inject ND into the conversation.

Example:

SunCoastSooner: Hey KC, you going to the game this weekend vs. okie lite?
KC: You betcha. We'll be tailgating on west side of Memorial where we always do.
SunCoastSooner: Cool. Might see you there. I'll bring some brats.
TiC: At Notre Dame, noody eats that swine. That's why we will never join the Big 10.
SunCoastSooner/KC: :?

[Terry in Crapchester]

Do you honestly believe that if all of college football becomes committed to the idea of 4 super conferences, that Notre Dame could single-handedly block it?

Yes, he does. He truly and honestly believes the world of college football revolves around Notre Dame.

No, I don't believe that the entire world of college football revolves around ND. Could ND single-handedly block a 4 x 16 alignment? Right now, yes, because Big Ten expansion is contingent, at least at this point, upon adding ND. For that matter, Texas probably is also in a position to block it singlehandedly as well, since Texas also figures into any future Big Ten expansion.

Will that still be the case 5-10 years from now? Who knows? I, for one, am not saying that definitely will still be the case, although it could be.

[Bizzarofelice]

I don't get why the Big Ten really wants Texas. The cultures are very, very different.

Not to mention Texas does not play well with others and the Big Ten is a bunch of socialist revenue sharererers.

[txangler74]

This was in the Austin paper this morning. I could see this going down next week.


http://www.statesman.com/sports/longhor ... 09134.html