Week 1 of pick 'em discussion.

SunCoastSooner · Post by **SunCoastSooner** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:12 pm

RTS took Wake Forest? I don't get how WF is favored in this game... Baylor has most of its team returning and anyone who watched their progression last season had to be impressed. I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility that they end up the #3 team in the Big 12 south. Robert Griffen is going to create some severe problems and match up issues with everyone they face (even Oklahoma and Texas); you almost have to leave a LB keying on him or get screwed.

I think the Clemson/MTSU and tOSU/Navy games are trap door games. MTSU pulls a lot of overlooked talent out of Tenn, Bama, and Fla. It also seems to pull one or two games out of its ass against big names whether they lose or not for some crazy reason they at least tend to keep them close... they also tend to get blown up once a season as well though. tOSU always starts out slow offensively and Navy has the style of game plan that can eat a lot of clock even when they are not putting up points, their players are also very disciplined.

Texas should beat La-M by numerous TDs but they have a history of stumbling out of the starting blocks and then picking up steam their first game of the season.

New Mexico State/Idaho... seriously?

L45B · Post by **L45B** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:50 pm

SunCoastSooner wrote:I think the Clemson/MTSU and tOSU/Navy games are trap door games.

Definitely agree on the tOSU-Navy game. If I wasn't superstitious about jinxing my own team, I would probably take Navy and the points in this one. Tressel is gonna be ultra-conservative in his playcalling and the team could very well be looking ahead to the showdown with the Trojans.

FYI-- just a few quick notes to all of you on neutral site games and other one-offs, since the Pick'em sheet only lists Home & Visitor:

Alabama vs. VaTech (Atlanta, GA)
Oklahoma vs. BYU (Arlington, TX)
Illinois vs. Mizzou (St. Louis, MO)
Miami (OH) vs. Kentucky (Cincinnati, OH)
UCLA vs. SDSU (over a campfire)
**Kal vs. Maryland (kickoff is at 7pm PST but note that this is 10 pm Maryland time hence the UM players might be extremely tired due to jetlag and it being past their bedtime)**

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Sep 01, 2009 1:51 pm

I picked OSU. I think that's a pretty low spread to cover. What answer will Navy have for Pryor? I see a 14 td lead by halftime, at least. If it was in the high 20s, I'd have stayed away.

buckeye_in_sc · Post by **buckeye_in_sc** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 2:46 pm

I think Minnesota is going to POUND the cuse...Greg Paulus are you kidding...

oh and I heard Maryland has been in the Bezerkely area since mid August trying to acclimate to the time change...no worries lance

Van · Post by **Van** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 4:22 pm

MgoBlue-LightSpecial wrote:I picked OSU. I think that's a pretty low spread to cover. What answer will Navy have for Pryor? I see a 14 td lead by halftime, at least. If it was in the high 20s, I'd have stayed away.

Mgo's got OSU being up by 98 at the half. Yeah, I guess he does think that's a pretty low spread to have to cover for OSU.

Terry in Crapchester · Tue Sep 01, 2009 4:36 pm

SunCoastSooner wrote:RTS took Wake Forest? I don't get how WF is favored in this game... Baylor has most of its team returning and anyone who watched their progression last season had to be impressed.

In fairness, Wake is favored by 2 1/2 at home. Essentially, a line less than 3 is a pick game, and IIRC, oddsmakers allow 5 points in BTPCF for homefield advantage. On a neutral field, Baylor should be a 2 1/2 point favorite.

Also, I know home dogs are popular bets, but I really like UConn - 3 1/2 @ Ohio.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Sep 01, 2009 4:59 pm

Van wrote:
MgoBlue-LightSpecial wrote:I picked OSU. I think that's a pretty low spread to cover. What answer will Navy have for Pryor? I see a 14 td lead by halftime, at least. If it was in the high 20s, I'd have stayed away.
Mgo's got OSU being up by 98 at the half. Yeah, I guess he does think that's a pretty low spread to have to cover for OSU.

ooooooops

14 pt lead

Van · Post by **Van** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:42 pm

Mgo, quickly scanning everyone's picks so far, you seem to be about the only guy who isn't picking ND to cover at home against Nevada. Not only did you not pick ND, you didn't even skip the game. You actually went with Nevada.

The ND game seemed to be the one most everybody jumped on. I didn't see too many people pass on that one, and we all took ND.

You're the Lone Ranger. What's your thought process there?

(Edit: JayDuck also just picked Nevada. So, so far it's 8 picks for ND, 2 picks for Nevada, with 3 people skipping that game.)

SunCoastSooner · Post by **SunCoastSooner** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:43 pm

Sudden Sam wrote:Oklahoma's offensive line concerns worry me. That and BYU's generally putting up lotsa points made me stay away from that game. I can see OU winning 31-28 or something like that.

I find it funny that everyone is blowing OU's line problems out of proportion while completely ignoring the major issues on Tejass DLine and at TE; especially by the pundits and so called experts. Oklahoma has a combined 38 starts amongst its Olineman that will see action on Saturday and that's not counting Eldridge at center who came in at TE specifically in blocking situations his previous seasons while also doing a little bit of deep snapping. It's not like Jarvis Jones wasn't hyped as the next coming while he was at LSU before he transferred... I guess you're AWESOME as long as you're in the SEC but if you leave an SEC school for another major BCS school outside ballsuckinghomer territory you immediately devolve into dog meat. OU's Oline may not be as good as it was last season with 4 future NFL players starting but at the same time one of those guys is back (the one who graded out the highest of all them for that matter).

Oklahoma State at home...with their offense? Okay. We saw what a good SEC defense did to a great Big 12 offense in the MNC game last year, but... can Georgia score at all against the Cowboys? New QB, new RBs (now Caleb King appears to be out). And Georgia going west past the Mississippi River? Holy shit...they may get so turned around they can't get outta the locker room. Gotta lean toward OkSU. 5 1/2 seems reasonable.

I don't have much faith in OSU's defense but I think they can outscore Georgia at home. They put up some points against both Oklahoma and Texas last season with almost everyone returning. And don't feed me the BS about Oklahoma not being an SEC Defense... Oklahoma's issue in the BCSNT wasn't its defense, especially considering they held UF's offense to its 2nd lowest total of the season, it was putting points on the board from the red zone.

I feel like Minnesota will have a fairly good year. Gotta go with anybody against the Orangeboys.

LSU and Washington. Whoa. New QB at LSU. Yeah, he had a great bowl game, but is he gonna be that good this year? Lotta high expectations for the Tigers, but I gotta wait and see. LSU should cover, but I'm scared of that one. You know those SEC kids have never flown before and they may be pretty shook up by the time that plane hits the ground.

Washington is just void of any talent outside of Locker is their problem. I don't think LSU is overwhelming but that Washington is underwhelming.

I'm curious about Notre Dame. Easy schedule...supposedly. Lou picks 'em to go to the BCS title game. Others figure 5 losses. This would be a disastrous start for Weiss if they lose this one. But I ain't comfortable pickin' 'em here.

I agree with SCS about Clemson/MTSU. Those MTSU kids usually play everyone tough. Clemson tens to stumble around all year. I think Coach Dabo may change that (Alabama training and attitude) eventually, but it may take a while before they toss the Clemson tradition of sucking.

I thought Dabo was there when Bama was pretty much mediocre to the suck?

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:49 pm

Van,

Because two touchdowns over what is by many accounts a competitive team is a large spread for ND to cover. Are we all suddenly forgetting the types of teams ND has lost to and struggled against in recent years? Nevada seems to be a bit of an under the radar type team based on what I've heard, with a qb who can hurt you in multiple ways, and ND's defense has already proven vulnerable. So, yeah, I think Nevada could cause ND just enough fits to cover that spread.

Hell, ND might be much improved and might blow them out of the water, but I've got to see it before I buy into it. But, I dunno, it's ultimately just a guess as are most picks in week 1. We'll see.

L45B · Post by **L45B** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 5:59 pm

MgoBlue-LightSpecial wrote:Are we all suddenly forgetting the types of teams ND has lost to and struggled against in recent years?

I agree 100%. Exactly the reason I stayed away from that game. Am actually surprised to see that many of you taking ND. I know it's been a year and this is a different season we are about to embark on, but barely beating a horrible SDSU team in last year's opener still stands out in my mind. Moreso than all the media folk jumping on the ND to a BCS game bandwagon.

Moby Dick · Post by **Moby Dick** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 7:50 pm

I really didnt want to but the hype monster made me pick Notre Dame to cover that spread.

if the machine fails me i'm sending Weis a poisoned hoagie.

edit. switcharoo on the pick. jayduck types the truth me thinks.

JayDuck · Post by **JayDuck** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 8:22 pm

Van wrote:Mgo, quickly scanning everyone's picks so far, you seem to be about the only guy who isn't picking ND to cover at home against Nevada. Not only did you not pick ND, you didn't even skip the game. You actually went with Nevada.

The ND game seemed to be the one most everybody jumped on. I didn't see too many people pass on that one, and we all took ND.

You're the Lone Ranger. What's your thought process there?

(Edit: JayDuck also just picked Nevada. So, so far it's 8 picks for ND, 2 picks for Nevada, with 3 people skipping that game.)

Nothing too complicated. Notre Dame sucks, Nevada is not that bad. If I were betting real money, I'd be upset about not getting it at 14.5 rather than 13.5, but Nevada is an improving team right now that should be a legitimate contender with Fresno and Boise State at the top of the WAC.

If Kaepernick can improve his accuracy a little bit, now being an upperclassmen, their offense is going to score against Notre Dame. I see nothing out of Notre Dame that would lead me to believe they are going to win by more than 2 TDs.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Sep 01, 2009 8:47 pm

I see Kaepernick goes about 6'6" and can apparently throw AND run quite well. Rivals is pretty high on him as well. ND could have its hands full.

Van · Post by **Van** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 9:09 pm

Even though it would go against my pick, and my selfish desire to see ND at least become a plus rather than a minus on USC's schedule, I hope you two are right.

If you two do turn out to be correct, I hope it goes all the way. In that instance I don't want Nevada to merely cover, I want them to win.

If ND loses that game, no way in hell Weis is back next season.

Van · Post by **Van** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 10:24 pm

it made me happier than m2 in a sea of cocks

FLW Buckeye · Post by **FLW Buckeye** » Tue Sep 01, 2009 11:45 pm

Papa Willie wrote:I dunno know about y'all, but god DAMN it made me happier than m2 in a sea of cocks to see that first pick 'em thread go up. FINALLY - CFB is back!

Sig worthy. Thanks.

Dinsdale · Post by **Dinsdale** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 2:00 am

MgoBlue-LightSpecial wrote:I picked OSU. I think that's a pretty low spread to cover. What answer will Navy have for Pryor? I see a 14 td lead by halftime, at least. If it was in the high 20s, I'd have stayed away.

Navy has the ultimate answer to Pryor -- a running game to keep him off the field.

Don't get me wrong, Navy has no chance. BUT, when a team grinds out that much ground, it becomes more a math problem than a strategic one -- how may minutes will tOSU get in TOP to enable them to clear 3+ TDs?

That's my issue with that game, and the inherent "trap," although I have no doubt the game won't be as close as the score indicates.

But my selections show I'm not ruling a 4TD win out, either... not touching that one.

Blueblood · Post by **Blueblood** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 2:33 am

L45B wrote: **Kal vs. Maryland (kickoff is at 7pm PST but note that this is 10 pm Maryland time hence the UM players might be extremely tired due to jetlag and it being past their bedtime)**

Maryland will be in the Bay Area on Thursday...

From an article...

Maryland will fly to Cal on Thursday night. Fridge wants the players tired when they arrive so they will sleep through the night. No sleeping on the plane allowed, guys.

....I think the time zone difference is more of an issue in the morning, not evening. Seriously, what college kid do you know who goes to bed before 2am ?

L45B · Post by **L45B** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 2:56 am

Maryland will fly to Cal on Thursday night.

Nice to know that Maryland's athletic department isn't nearly as fucking stupid as Cal's.

I think the time zone difference is more of an issue in the morning, not evening.

It's only an issue for teams who are soft and fragile and whose biggest fan is that of a sword-swallowing, third-rate scribe.

Van · Post by **Van** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:12 am

L45B wrote:It's only an issue for teams who are soft and fragile and whose biggest fan is that of a sword-swallowing, third-rate scribe.

I do not think that sentence means what you think it means.

Sin,

Roger_the_Shrubber · Post by **Roger_the_Shrubber** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 8:27 am

Suncoast,

Home game for Wake, season opener, and that field there is a peice of crap. LOTS of damn injuries happen on that throwback from No Man's Land in the Ardennes they call a football field. I didn't set the lines, just took a SWAG.(scientific wild ass guess)

Pick Baylor; no skin off of my titanium filled broken back.

And the next time Baylor is a major player nationally, will be the first in a loooooong time. As far as the Big 12 goes, if they are what you say they are, why are their next three games against UConn, Northwestern State(where the HELL is that?), and Kent State? (yeah, I know about FSU v Jacksonville State...what a piece of crap game/scheduling that is). I just think they will lose, by at least 2.5 points. :D

As for Griffin, who knows man. But the hype about him may be detrimental. Tebow, he ain't.

Anyway, was just my pick.

Peace

Moby Dick · Post by **Moby Dick** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 10:27 am

sup shrubbah?

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Wed Sep 02, 2009 11:36 am

Dinsdale wrote:
MgoBlue-LightSpecial wrote:I picked OSU. I think that's a pretty low spread to cover. What answer will Navy have for Pryor? I see a 14 td lead by halftime, at least. If it was in the high 20s, I'd have stayed away.

Navy has the ultimate answer to Pryor -- a running game to keep him off the field.

Don't get me wrong, Navy has no chance. BUT, when a team grinds out that much ground, it becomes more a math problem than a strategic one -- how may minutes will tOSU get in TOP to enable them to clear 3+ TDs?

I understand, but we're talking about Ohio State's defense, not Army's. Navy will be punting more often than not. Ohio State will be scoring touchdowns.

buckeye_in_sc · Post by **buckeye_in_sc** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 1:11 pm

Holy shit rack Lance...

what is going to happen if maryland should beat Cal while flying cross country???

Oh and I think Fridge has had them set their watches back for the last couple weeks...they might be late or miss class all together but he wants them ready

Degenerate · Post by **Degenerate** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 3:04 pm

Jsc810 wrote:What will be the upset of the week?

I'll take a stab at Washington State +17.5.

Having two healthy quarterbacks (Lopina and Loebbenstael) is better than having zero, which is what Wazzu dealt with for most of '08.

Van · Post by **Van** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 4:31 pm

Degenerate wrote:
Jsc810 wrote:What will be the upset of the week?
I'll take a stab at Washington State +17.5.

Having two healthy quarterbacks (Lopina and Loebbenstael) is better than having zero, which is what Wazzu dealt with for most of '08.

I don't have 'em winning, but I do have 'em covering.

Winless Washington somehow hanging around and beating a potentially disoriented LSU, that would be the funniest upset of the week...other than Maryland beating Cal.

Nothing would be funnier than that.

Thing is, some people seem to forget that Washington wasn't all that horrible last year, at least not before the injuries killed 'em. When they still had Jake Locker they had BYU beaten, in the game where they got hosed on that stupid "excess celebration" call, when Locker merely flipped the ball back over his head following the score.

I don't see Washington winning this one, but a home team, in their opener, with a new coach who isn't Ty Willingham? Playing against a team with a severe aversion to time zone changes?

Yeah, I could see Washington covering there. If LSU's rookie QB shits the bed with turnovers, and if Locker plays well, I could even envision Washington hanging around long enough to pull off the upset.

Even so, Maryland beating Cal would still be funnier.

Dinsdale · Post by **Dinsdale** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 4:38 pm

Degenerate wrote:
Jsc810 wrote:What will be the upset of the week?
I'll take a stab at Washington State +17.5.

Having two healthy quarterbacks (Lopina and Loebbenstael) is better than having zero, which is what Wazzu dealt with for most of '08.

I kinda thought that was kind of a "freebie."

Although both teams have sucked huge ass for a couplefew years (Wazzu moreso than Furd), both are trying to get out of the cellar (Furd moreso than Wazzu).

Wazzu, while low on talent, returns a whole buncha guys from last year. Additionally, they caught the injury bug as badly as anyone last year, losing some of their "better" players, who should be back (when you suck that bad, at least you don't lose juniors to the NFL). They even managed to pluck a badass DB from the M2s.

They'll still suck balls, but should be an improved squad. And 17.5 is just too many points for a home dog on opening day, even with opening with a conference game.

That's my theory, and I'm sticking to it, until it doesn't hold, then I'll rethink it.

Similarly, I went with UDub. For those who've forgotten, the Fuskies are my sworn enemy, and I'd really enjoy seeing them take a 100 point whoopin. But if I'm serious about picking games...

16.5 at home to a team with a fear-of-flying? Hell, it's probably about as long a drive from SeaTac to Husky Stadium as a typical LSU "road" game.

UDub had their share of injuries last year, as well. They got a few guns back, although not enough to make them good. Oedipus Locker theoretically will make a couple of plays, and LSU just doesn't (in years past) put up enough total yardage in a game to cover 16.5 in a PAC team's house in the home opener.

And since I given such eloquent, sound reasoning as to why I picked those teams, you can probably take out a second mortgage and throw it all on Stanford and LSU.

Van · Post by **Van** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 4:43 pm

I just like the 'home team getting big points is the safest pick in all of betting-dom' adage...especially in a season opener.

Nevermind what USC did to Virginia in Charlottesville last season.

Dinsdale · Post by **Dinsdale** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 4:49 pm

Van wrote:I just like the 'home team getting big points is the safest pick in all of betting-dom' adage...especially in a season opener.

Nevermind what USC did to Virginia in Charlottesville last season.

Before you go down this road, I'll need to know what the spread was on that game -- I'm sure it was massive. Did USC cover?

Sorry -- I'll stick with well-trodden statistics -- home dogs cover at an alarming clip, and casual spread-players seem to never learn.

If a gambler did nothing but bet home doggies all season long, they'd just about always finish the season ahead, since they cover at a rate that would cover the juice (not by a whole lot, but would traditionally cover the expenses for a small profit margin).

L45B · Post by **L45B** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 4:49 pm

Dinsdale wrote:Hell, it's probably about as long a drive from SeaTac to Husky Stadium as a typical LSU "road" game.

Rack this blast. SECBSH, you gonna take that? You need to go Jesse Jackson and get in here and defend your beloved conference, holmes.

Now that you mention it, I'm starting to reconsider that Wazzou game. :idea:

Van · Post by **Van** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 4:52 pm

Dins, just in case we're not on the same page here, I'm agreeing with you. I like home teams getting big points. Like you, I took both Wazzou and Washington to cover this week.

I don't recall the spread in the USC-Virginia game, but you can be certain it wasn't 45, and USC won 52-7, IIRC.

Dinsdale · Post by **Dinsdale** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 4:59 pm

Have I mentioned how freaking excited I am for the season starting tomorrow?

Wait... I'm telling that to a buncha dudes who post on a BTPCFB message board year-round... nevermind.

Van · Post by **Van** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 5:20 pm

I'm excited about the season, but not about my team, and not about this season in general, compared to most recent seasons.

Knowing that this entire season is just one long opening act before the inevitable Florida stompage of the Big XII winner in the title game...meh.

Instead, I'll look to things like this Oregon-Boise St game, and the Iowa-Penn St game, and the Ole Miss-Bama game.

I just don't have a good feeling about my team's season, and short of injuries I don't see any way Florida doesn't roll this year. I'll have to find my fun elsewhere, so this year it'll be the other teams which will most interest me.

Van · Post by **Van** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 5:53 pm

Jsc, Saturday night won't say much about their readiness, one way or the other.

Need I remind you, they're playing a team which went 0-12 last season.

The only way this game says anything about LSU is if the Tigers somehow manage to shit the bed.

buckeye_in_sc · Post by **buckeye_in_sc** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 6:04 pm

Spread on USC v UVA last year I believe was USC -34 I made a last second bet on them BODE ME

OSU went to UW 2 years ago (2007) after UW won their first 2 games (1 of which was over Boise State)...everyone had that as an upset for UW to beat OSU...well OSU slapped them silly and got no credit...

I guarantee you that if LSU beats UW they will continue to extoll the meat grinder...

Are you sure LSU flew? Or did they take a train or something?

Dinsdale · Post by **Dinsdale** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 6:14 pm

I think this makes a great standalone quote:

buckeye_in_sc wrote:LSU flew?

Degenerate · Post by **Degenerate** » Wed Sep 02, 2009 7:44 pm

Dinsdale wrote:
Degenerate wrote:
Jsc810 wrote:What will be the upset of the week?
I'll take a stab at Washington State +17.5.

Having two healthy quarterbacks (Lopina and Loebbenstael) is better than having zero, which is what Wazzu dealt with for most of '08.
I kinda thought that was kind of a "freebie."

Although both teams have sucked huge ass for a couplefew years (Wazzu moreso than Furd), both are trying to get out of the cellar (Furd moreso than Wazzu).

Wazzu, while low on talent, returns a whole buncha guys from last year. Additionally, they caught the injury bug as badly as anyone last year, losing some of their "better" players, who should be back (when you suck that bad, at least you don't lose juniors to the NFL). They even managed to pluck a badass DB from the M2s.

They'll still suck balls, but should be an improved squad. And 17.5 is just too many points for a home dog on opening day, even with opening with a conference game.

That's my theory, and I'm sticking to it, until it doesn't hold, then I'll rethink it.

Hope you're right about it being a freebie because I'm on it. Wazzu was being held together by duct tape last season. I just didn't see any spread greater than 17.5 where I was willing to take the dog. I thought about La-Monroe +40.5 because most Sun Belt teams not named North Texas can usually grind it out for at least a half even against the top tier. But since Texas will be in McCoy-4-Heisman mode from the get-go, i'm staying away.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Wed Sep 02, 2009 8:41 pm

Brandon Minor now questionable vs WMU. I'm liking this pick more and more.

Blueblood · Post by **Blueblood** » Thu Sep 03, 2009 11:06 am

Van wrote:that would be the funniest upset of the week...other than Maryland beating Cal.

Nothing would be funnier than that.

Even so, Maryland beating Cal would still be funnier.

the truth