http://www.nfl.com/news/story/8755729
Pat Kirwan By Pat Kirwan
NFL.com Senior Analyst
Turnovers could be key in explosive AFC West.
(Aug. 22, 2005) -- The AFC West always has had a reputation as the Wild West all the way back to the AFL days, and not much has really changed. It might be the most difficult division in football to predict which team will win the title.
Last year, San Diego jumped from last to first in one season. But that is not uncommon in this division. In the past three years, a different team has come in first (Kansas City in 2003; Oakland in 2002). The only consistency seems to be the Denver Broncos, who have come in second place all three years.
Ask four people which team will win the AFC West this season, and you are likely to get four different answers. Can Randy Moss and LaMont Jordan flip the Raiders from worst to first? Is Drew Brees a one-year wonder? Can the high-powered Chiefs offense get any support from their defense now that they have added a number of free agents? Will Denver get Jake Plummer to do what no one since Elway has done?
There are some interesting issues about how this division is built. For example, none of the starting quarterbacks was a home-grown first-round selection. Brees was the first pick of Round 2 in 2001, and Plummer, Trent Green and Kerry Collins come from other places. Compare that to the AFC South, where all four starting quarterbacks still play for the teams who chose them in Round 1.
The AFC West generated more passing yards from their four starting signal-callers than any other division with 15,334 yards, yet the division had only one wide receiver finish in the top 20 in the league in receptions -- Denver's Rod Smith. Moss should change that in one year's time.
This division is the home of the best tight ends in football. Tony Gonzalez and Antonio Gates combined for 183 receptions and 20 touchdowns. Every team in the AFC West better have excellent strong safeties who can cover, or these two men are going to put up big numbers again in 2005.
When you think about defense in the AFC West, it really comes down to San Diego and Denver playing excellent run defense and adequate pass defense. San Diego went 5-1 in the division last year and held division opponents under 20 points in four of those six games.
Last season, the Chiefs and Raiders were down at the bottom of the league in total defense. They have the old AFL reputation of trying to outscore opponents, which makes for some exciting football on Sundays.
The Chargers emphasized defense in the draft, and the addition of Shawne Merriman and Luis Castillo will help the strongest unit in the division. Denver also didn't sit still. It drafted three cornerbacks with its first three picks and brought in most of Cleveland's defensive line during the free-agency period.
Where the Chargers really separated themselves from the rest of the division last season was in turnover ratio. San Diego had a plus-15, which equates to one extra possession per game. The other three teams were horrible in 2004. The defenses in Oakland (minus-17), Denver (minus-9), and Kansas City (minus-7) were not aggressive in trying to take the ball away, and the offenses didn't protect the ball.
Chiefs players tell me there is a big emphasis on creating turnovers, which was one of the big reasons the Chiefs won the division back in 2003 (plus-19). If Plummer and Collins cut their interceptions down from a league-worst 20 each, then both teams will improve.
When I looked at the Chargers closely, a couple of things jumped out at me. The margin of victory was close in a three-game stretch of division games around Thanksgiving last year (Oakland 23-17, Kansas City 34-31 and Denver 20-17).
Some people would like to believe that will not happen again, but that might be wishful thinking. Last year, LaDainian Tomlinson, arguably the best offensive player in the division, rushed for over 100 yards in only two division games, missed one game, and scored only five times in six division games. The Chargers found other ways to win, and no one should expect Tomlinson to repeat that production again in 2005.
* I believe the Raiders will get a big season from Jordan, and Moss will create problems for every opponent, but teams trying to outscore opponents to compensate for their questionable defenses don't go far.
* Denver will see a more efficient Plummer, but should land up in the same spot it has the past four years -- second place and fighting for a wild card.
* Kansas City will have a better defense, but the offense is getting a bit long in the tooth. One or two key injuries to those seven starters in their 30s, and they will struggle. I hope they stay healthy for Dick Vermeil, who is trying to bring his third different team to a Super Bowl.
* The Chargers play defense, win the turnover battles, have a great running back and have the most unusual quarterback situation -- Brees on a franchise tag after a Pro Bowl season and Philip Rivers right behind him. Throw in Gates and they have the most team balance.
History says there will be a new division champion again this year. I think I'll buck the history factor and look for the Chargers to repeat.
