T1B

Is there a death pool for stocks?
Looks like Kierland got out in time.

Edit: Reading too fast leads to blurred vision. Sorry, bro. 60 isn't bad.

Just barely, but it’s down 60 not 600.

Innocent Bystander wrote: ↑Mon Feb 24, 2020 2:22 pm Is there a death pool for stocks?
Looks like Kierland got out in time.

Edit: Reading too fast leads to blurred vision. Sorry, bro. 60 isn't bad.

No but I had a sell order at 900.
So a 5k case ended up paying me 18k.

Tesla is relying on big sales in China, so it is understandable that it takes a bump, although 60 bucks isn't that big a deal given its nice ride the last year or so. Queerland, if you were in during that period and bailed at 900, you did very well.

My guess is it doesn't see 900 again for quite a while. All depends if the chinks get a handle on Coronavirus.

Tesla forward splitting 1 to 5 on the 30th

I bought some Tesla a couple of years ago at around 300. After watching it do nothing but slowly drop, I sold it at around 280 before it bottomed out below 200. It seemed too volatile and nobody was very sure whether the company would actually last.

Bad call I guess but I've watched my ENPH go from $5.00 to $74+ today, so there's that. And NVDIA has gone from $120 to over $500.

Elon Musk is a visionary and has some great ideas. I don't trust him at all though. I've seen how he and his family do business back around 2007-2010 when I was consulting for California utilities in the solar industry. The stock is great for the folks who bought low and held onto it, but I wouldn't touch anything he does with a 10 foot pole.

Mikey wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:18 pm I've seen how he and his family do business back around 2007-2010 when I was consulting for California utilities in the solar industry.

Elon has been insistent for years it's overvalued.

What happened in California?

I bought something for my kid* that I would not have been able to afford if I had not sold at $900, and it made him very happy. So I made out like a bandit.

*Also bought some silver at $15/Oz. And a stock that is doing great.

Innocent Bystander wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:28 pm

Mikey wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:18 pm I've seen how he and his family do business back around 2007-2010 when I was consulting for California utilities in the solar industry.

Elon has been insistent for years it's overvalued.

What happened in California?

It's complicated but, long story short, when California was still paying homeowners incentives to install PV on their homes Solar City was seriously gaming the system.

DOW, S&P 500, NASDAQ all at or near record levels. Biggest 100 day gain in history.

Short sellers taking in the shorts.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/new ... 1029526869

This has me worried because it's mostly built on momentum and a thousands of bored Millennials suddenly thinking they know how to day trade. And FOMO is very high.

This is starting to remind me of 2001 when I lost my shirt, and it took me almost until now to get back to where I was then. I'm thinking it's time to dump the high-flyers (of which I have a few) and sit on cash for a while. A lot of this run is based on a few high flying stocks. Tesla, Apple, Alphabet (Google) etc. Apparently there are actually more losers than winners in the overall market.

Buy low. Sell high. A lot of stuff is pretty high right now.

Innocent Bystander wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:28 pm

Elon has been insistent for years it's overvalued.

Musk claimed exactly the opposite.

He said it was undervalued.

That’s why he threatened to take it private.

Bill in Houston wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:00 pm

Innocent Bystander wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:28 pm

Elon has been insistent for years it's overvalued.

Musk claimed exactly the opposite.

He said it was undervalued.

That’s why he threatened to take it private.

Then I misread him in the past.

Mikey, Poptart and Buffett have been warning that for over a year. We'll see in 30 days.

I don't see an economic Armageddon happening, like pops is always predicting.

A "Bear Market" or a correction - yes they are inevitable. But the economy is nothing if not cyclical. A lot of people thought that the world was ending when their stock portfolios lost 30% or more in a couple of weeks in March, on top of the pandemic. People panic and sell. That's when they lose money. It always comes back. The fact that it's now at its highest levels ever proves it. Other people see a drop in the market as an opportunity to buy stocks at lower cost, knowing that the market will recover.

The problem is that it's impossible to predict. People buy when the market is peaking because of FOMO (fear of missing out). They sell when the market is down because they're afraid of losing everything. Human nature influences you to do just the opposite of what you should do. It's hard to be rational when you're working with your own money.

Innocent Bystander wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 8:54 pm

Bill in Houston wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 5:00 pm

Innocent Bystander wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:28 pm

Elon has been insistent for years it's overvalued.

Musk claimed exactly the opposite.

He said it was undervalued.

That’s why he threatened to take it private.

Then I misread him in the past.

Mikey, Poptart and Buffett have been warning that for over a year. We'll see in 30 days.

30 days??? Why??? What has thirty days got to do with this? 30 days could be an eternity in this environment.

And thirty days will not change the past twelve months, a period in which TSLA has appreciated by nearly 830%!

Mikey wrote: ↑Mon Aug 24, 2020 3:07 pm
This has me worried because it's mostly built on momentum and a thousands of bored Millennials suddenly thinking they know how to day trade.

You can be a complete idiot and make money doing simply day trading right now. Good opportunity for millennials who specialize in working very little and making a lot.

This is starting to remind me of 2001 when I lost my shirt, and it took me almost until now to get back to where I was then.

The old dot com implosion. I was working as a sales rep for a turf equipment manufacturer and calling on my accounts in Oregon, Idaho and SE Washington. A few of these guys that knew each other went all in on some shaky IPOs. And I mean all fucking in. Hundreds of thousands a few of them were rolling with. A couple of them are still working now because they lost their ass severely. A couple of others turned the plays into a couple million and retired early. It can go either way.

I'm thinking it's time to dump the high-flyers (of which I have a few) and sit on cash for a while. A lot of this run is based on a few high flying stocks. Tesla, Apple, Alphabet (Google) etc. Apparently there are actually more losers than winners in the overall market.

Tesla does not belong in that group of stocks. Not even close. I own a decent chunk of Apple and made about $ 5,000 on it last week. I have owned it for about 10 years now. No intention of selling it ever. I wish I had bought Google years ago. Both those are so strong, they are not going to get hurt. It took me a while to get the portfolio I wanted (somewhat anyway),and I used the volatility in the marks over this covid scam to reinforce some positions. Day trading on Costco mostly for the big swings. Fucking easy pickings.

Buy low. Sell high. A lot of stuff is pretty high right now.

Real estate I bought 4 years ago has more than doubled in price. Enough that I can sell a piece and use it for fun things and not living expenses. I have enough bare dirt right now to hold for the next 10 years, selling a piece every other year for income.

Derron is a lying sack of dog shit.

Like the degenerate gambling addict who brags of a win twice a year, and neglects to share the multitude of losses in between.

Zero credibility unless you want to be honest. Which for derrrrrun is never.

I've been long on Costco for three years now. Bought 62 shares at 160 and haven't touched it, and don't plan to.

I once had a big chunk of Cisco Systems and thought it was pretty solid until the bubble burst. It went from 82 to 13 in a matter of about 12 months. I kept telling myself it couldn't go any lower. But it did. And it's never gotten close to where it was before the bubble burst.

Same story for Intel. Solid stock. It peaked at 76 around the end of August 2000. By September of 2001 it was at 18 and bottomed out at 13 in 2002.

Yahoo topped out at $475 in January of 2000. By the end of 2001 it was less than $10.

I once owned stock in a company called Computer Associates. Highly respected company at the time. It went up tenfold in a couple of years and then lost 95% of its value.

I could go on. These all seemed like pretty bulletproof companies at the time. But, as they say, hindsight is 20/20.

Here are a few interesting charts I just pulled up.

This is the NASDAQ composite between 1/1/1998 and 1/1/2003. I remember very well when it hit 5,000 and I started thinking that something's gotta give. Only I didn't do anything about it. Sat on my hands and lost my shirt. That won't happen to me again.




Tesla for the past year:




Notice anything similar?

A couple more.

Nvidia is now one of my largest holdings:




Apple




The point being that exponential growth can't to on forever. Whatever system you are dealing with eventually becomes unstable. At some point Tesla, or Apple, or whatever, would be bigger than the rest of the world combined. I'm not saying that these stocks will crash, but you can't make money on them forever, and one or more of them probably will crash at some point when something new comes along. Look at where Yahoo is (if you can find it) compared to where it once was and where Google is now. GM and Ford used to be good shares to own. Where are they now? They're not even paying dividends anymore.

The exponential growth thing is a natural phenomenononon. When I was in 9th grade we did the drosophila experiment in our biology class. We put some fruit files in a closed glass jar with a bunch of food and counted them every day. The population grew exponentially for a couple weeks and then it crashed. Not exactly anomalous to the stock market, but still something to consider.

No logical connection between 9th grade biology experiment and stock market results.

I’ve taken the lazy approach. Everything in index funds. I’ve tried a few biotech stocks in the past. Watched them “pop” and drop. Never had much success.

I’ve figured it was like the Super Bowl bet in August: put a bet on your favorite team or bet the rest of the field. Actually, the index includes the favorites.

How often do all the stocks that you don’t know about, or don’t identify, outperform the one you pour all of that research into?

Sure if you bought Apple with every cent of your net worth back.... whenever (look at Mikey’s chart), you would crush the index returns. I just don’t believe anyone who say that’s what they did for the last 20 years.

Meanwhile I spend my time doing things much more valuable than stock research.

Bill in Houston wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 12:05 am No logical connection between 9th grade biology experiment and stock market results.

Of course there’s no “logical” connection. I was only giving several examples of exponential growth and how it can quickly become unsustainable in any case.

You do understand the concept of “exponential” and what it implies. Don’t you?

Bill in Houston wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 12:05 am index

hmmm...

So you're still alive?

FiatLux wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 4:40 am

Bill in Houston wrote: ↑Tue Aug 25, 2020 12:05 am index

hmmm...

So you're still alive?

I wish indexhb were still alive. Funnier than Dark Gable, steady debater. He and Detroit were the anti Skilla-Meds, though. Detroit distracted him from the funny and the music.

I bought a few shares of NIO this morning.

NIO, BTW is a Chinese company that's considered a competitor with Tesla. They make electric vehicles, chargers and battery swapping stations, storage betteries, and an AI platform for autonomous vehicles.

They also sponsor one original teams in Formula E auto racing.

It's a relatively new company and the stock is still pretty cheap (under $20.00) so there's lots of room for growth. It gained something like 20% yesterday and is up another 10% today. It will be interesting to watch. Looking back it would have been a great investment a few months ago.

I still have Dark Gable on Mt Rushmore for sure.

You could probably find odd on that in Vegas.

Mikey wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 3:27 pm I bought a few shares of NIO this morning.

Just hit Etrade up for a few myself. We shall see what happens.

I told my kid about it and he wanted to know how much it will be if it goes where Tesla is and he seemed pretty happy with that number.

It's already up something like 400% this year, but still a lot of headroom, IMO.

Hindsight and all that...

I won $5000 at a poker machine once, I think, I don’t really remember. I do however remember losing $500 on a blackjack hand on the very same trip.

That’s some skilled speculation.

I lived in Henderson, NV for five years, about a 10 minute drive from the Strip.

I once took a $10.00 roll of quarters into one of the casinos and played until it was gone.

That was the only gambling I did the entire time I was there. I moved back to SoCal in 1999 and haven't been to Vegas since.

And yet you have still been gambling.

Yes that's true, but bending, or at least attempting to bend the odds a little by following along.

I don't do much "day trading" mostly "buy and hold" in a very diversified portfolio with a roboadvisor.

I just kept a small sum outside of that for my own use, and have done pretty well recently on a few good calls. And most of those I've owned for multiple years. It's gotten to where I need to rebalance and put some of the profits into the box that I can't (or won't) touch until I'm ready to retire.

Gambling and speculating are not investing.

Bill in Houston wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:08 pm Gambling and speculating are not investing.

Care to elaborate, or are you just into spouting ill-informed, generalized cliches?

Bill in Houston wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:08 pm Gambling and speculating are not investing.

Name an investment that is not a gamble and calls for no speculation as to what will happen with it. Outside of education and what not.

Kierland wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:21 pm

Bill in Houston wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:08 pm Gambling and speculating are not investing.

Name an investment that is not a gamble and calls for no speculation as to what will happen with it. Outside of education and what not.

That's the problem with the entire worker funded 401(k) and IRA retirement system that our nation has devolved into.
I don't particularly like it but, unfortunately, we have to deal with it. Especially those of us who are approaching retirement. To do otherwise is foolish and akin to hiding your head in the sand.

I don’t have to deal with IRA-401(k)BS thank god. Nice being in charge of your life.
That and retirement sounds horrible so I’m skipping it.

You're fortunate. I have to deal with both tax-deferred vehicles and non-tax deferred accounts.

One advantage of trading from within an IRA is that, even though it's taxed eventually, you don't have to deal with short or long term capital gains on each trade.

And I'm looking forward to retirement. I have plenty of stuff that I'd rather do than deal with work. Self-employment must be nice.

Self employment is a shit sando on a plate of exasperation. So yeah, way better than a yob. And the government has gotten more in grief and bills to pay to respond to all my papers and whatnot so they can take a chunk and I still “owe” them.

Kierland wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:36 pm I don’t have to deal with IRA-401(k)BS thank god. Nice being in charge of your life.
That and retirement sounds horrible so I’m skipping it.

So you voluntarily pay more taxes than you need to.
Whatever for?

Mikey wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:17 pm

Bill in Houston wrote: ↑Wed Aug 26, 2020 9:08 pm Gambling and speculating are not investing.

Care to elaborate, or are you just into spouting ill-informed, generalized cliches?

Sure, since your invitation comes with bias.

It has to do with the degree of uncertainty. Investing requires research, due diligence. An investigation into to potential risks and returns. There are unknowns, but an investor looks to limit them to the greatest extent possible.

A speculator will place money down on chance, hoping to gain and likely bails at a poor time.