Hey Pikkkle

[Goober McTuber]

Makes you proud to be a Badger, eh?

Hillary Clinton has opened a 15-point lead over Donald Trump in Wisconsin among likely voters in the latest Marquette Law School Poll.

The poll is the first in Wisconsin since Trump and Clinton accepted their respective party's nomination at the Republican and Democratic national conventions last month.

Before the conventions, Clinton led Trump among likely voters by only four points, 45-41, but in the latest poll leads 52-37. Among registered voters she led by six points, 43-37, before the convention and now leads 46-36.

Poll director Charles Franklin said the race is currently looking more like the 2008 election, in which Barack Obama won Wisconsin by 14 points, than the 2004, when John Kerry won Wisconsin by a very narrow margin.

"When we’re thinking about what kind of election is this shaping up to be right now in the nation as well as Wisconsin, it’s looking more like 2008 right now," Franklin said.

In the closely watched U.S. Senate race, Republican Sen. Ron Johnson trailed former Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold by 11 points among likely voters, 53-42. Among registered voters, Feingold leads 49-43.

Feingold's lead among likely voters increased from five points in the July poll.

The Senate results found Johnson continuing to lag the national trend of Republican Senate candidates outperforming Trump. As the Washington Post noted, Republican incumbent senators are faring about eight points better than Trump in 11 closely watched states. Johnson is doing four points better than Trump among both likely and registered voters.

The Post's analysis chalked up the difference to Johnson being less well-known in Wisconsin than senators in other states, such as Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who in one poll led his Democratic opponent by 13 points while Clinton led Trump by 6 points.

Political observers say the post-convention polls tend to define how the presidential race will shape up through November. In national polls, Trump received a bump from his convention, but Clinton received a slightly bigger bump and now leads by nearly eight points.

The Marquette poll was conducted after Trump had a tumultuous week in which he sparred with a gold-star Muslim family and withheld for several days his endorsement of House Speaker Paul Ryan, who handily won re-election on Tuesday.

The poll was conducted Aug. 4-7 with 805 registered voters. The margin of error is 4.6 percentage points. There were 683 likely voters, who say they are certain to vote in November. Their responses include a 5 percentage point margin of error.