All-Star Break World Series champion odds

[Yer a Fuckin Jerkoff]

At this point we know who is great, who is pretty good and who has the potential to make a run in September. Presently here are the teams that can win the World Series, and the percentages that they will.

Boston 61% Far and away the best team. Loaded top to bottom and should have a pretty easy run through the playoffs en route to another title.

St. Louis 14% Pound for pound I like them better than the Dodgers. Just a better baseball club with lots of professionalism.

N.Y. Yankees 10% Pretty good team that slugs its way to wins. In the playoffs, though, it's different. And their pitching always get yacked around.

L.A. Dodgers 7% Complete fraud team. They play in a shit division and their success this year has been with smoke and mirrots. But, they are a good bet to get swept in the W.S.

Detroit 5% I see them as dangerous overall, but not enough moxy to even get to the World Series. An ALCS berth would not be a shock.

Florida 2% A wild card team where anything is possible.

Tampa Bay 1% they are proving that last year was a complete fluke, but they are young enough to put together a bullshit Rockies-like streak and surprise some people

[Shoalzie]

The Tigers won't even make the playoffs as the Pale Hose will inevitably take first in the Central by September and not look back. The Marlins have a better chance at a WS appearance than the Tigers.

The Sox starting pitching is rounding into form after a slow start. Any team that has three or even four reliable starters down the stretch are going to be in the hunt. Buehrle carried that staff early on but now Danks and Floyd are returning to last year's form.

The Tigers have a very good 1-2 punch with Verlander and Jackson but I worry about Porcello in the second half and Galarraga is still very inconsistent. They've yet to find a reliable 5th starter as well. The x-factor could be what they get out Guillen after he returns from injury.

To me, Minnesota is the team to watch in that division as long as Mauer stays healthy. He's been the AL MVP in the first half because of much better they are when he returned to the lineup. The starting pitching hasn't been nearly as good as last year. Slowey had a great start to the season but his ERA has ballooned. Blackburn has been probably their best starter but I wouldn't put him up there with the years Verlander, Jackson and Buehrle are having.

[Shoalzie]

In the NL, you still have to give the nod to the Dodgers with solid starting pitching and a more complete lineup than the Cardinals. Pujols is the first half NL MVP in a landslide but the Dodgers are the best team in the NL. I like the Cards pitching but they're going to need to give Pujols and Ludwick some help. The Phillies are usually a strong second half team...definitely can't overlook the defending champs and the addition of Pedro is going to spice things up. I like the Giants for the wild card with that great starting pitching. They're the new Diamondbacks.

The Red Sox have to be the favorites in the AL because their starting pitching is a lot more reliable than the Yankees up to this point. I think the Yankees have a great shot at the wild card though. In the Central, I've already mentioned that I like the Twins but it could be a race that won't be decided until the last week with the Tigers and Sox in the hunt as well. Out West, the Angels will get it in gear when they get Guerrero and Hunter back from injury and they'll hold off the Rangers.

I know it's not a gutsy pick but I like the Red Sox over the Dodgers in the World Series...I think that was my preseason pick.

EDIT--Upon further review, I had Sox over Cubs.

[battery chucka' one]

No love for my Giants? I'll take the two headed monster combined with Sadowski with Kung Fu Panda, Ishikawa, and Schierholtz at the plate, along with our bully against any of the major's finest in a seven game series. Factor in a healthy Randy Johnson and a resurgent Jonathan Sanchez and I really wouldn't want to play them in October. Oh, and I think they'll get there, too. What says you? And yes, I am a bit biased. :twisted:

[The Seer]

L.A. Dodgers 7% Complete fraud team. They play in a shit division and their success this year has been with smoke and mirrots. But, they are a good bet to get swept in the W.S.

They'll fraud their way to a 100 win season. All those fraudulent batting avgs, and the pitching has been frauding their way through lineups. The ball has been frauded into going into the solid fielding/defense they have.

The fact that you claim they are a fraud team will bring great relief to the rest of the league.

[battery chucka' one]

L.A. Dodgers 7% Complete fraud team. They play in a shit division and their success this year has been with smoke and mirrots. But, they are a good bet to get swept in the W.S.

They'll fraud their way to a 100 win season. All those fraudulent batting avgs, and the pitching has been frauding their way through lineups. The ball has been frauded into going into the solid fielding/defense they have.

The fact that you claim they are a fraud team will bring great relief to the rest of the league.

I'll agree that the Dodgers are not a fraud team. If I'm wrong and they are, then they should collapse down the stretch. However, I hear that they are a bit afraid of the Giants. The orange and black, after the first sweep, have taken two series from them and one of those was in LA. Something to keep in mind.

[MgoBlue-LightSpecial]

a reliable 5th starter

I had no idea those existed.

[Shoalzie]

a reliable 5th starter

I had no idea those existed.

Mr. French has done well in that role so far. The problem is that Porcello, the third starter, is running out of gas. Galarraga in the 4-hole is inconsistent. Verlander and Jackson give this team a chance to win but they haven't been able to score any g-damn runs since the break.

[Yer a Fuckin Jerkoff]

The fact that you claim they are a fraud team will bring great relief to the rest of the league.

Most of the time when a team wins 100 games, they aren't as good as they appear. The Angels had that 100 win world-beater look last year but I told everyone that they were going to get the shit kicked out of them by the Red Sox in crunch time. The Dodgers are much like that Angels team...there's just something missing. I see them not even getting to the World Series, but if they do, they will get beat easy by Boston. Actually, the Dodgers remind me more of that 2004 Cardinals team that had the best record in baseball and then got the piss kicked out of them by the Red Sox.

[Bizzarofelice]

2004 Cards were a great team. Can't fit their square peg into your quivering round hole.

[Yer a Fuckin Jerkoff]

BoSox just picked up Billy Wagner from the Mets. Talk about bolstering an already stacked bully.

Now they have the perfect setup guy for Jonathan, and Wagner will be motivated to not only get a ring, but play for a contract to be some other team's closer in '10.

This is what I mean when I talk about making the perfect moves for October

[Shoalzie]

The Tigers won't even make the playoffs as the Pale Hose will inevitably take first in the Central by September and not look back. The Marlins have a better chance at a WS appearance than the Tigers.

That lead in the Central is quietly getting bigger for the Tigers but I can't get too cocky considering how 2006 finished up...

Today, the Tigers lead the Twins by 4.5 games and the Sox by 5. On this date in 2006, the Tigers had a 5 game lead on the Twins and 5.5 game lead on the Sox. Then again, the Tigers also had the best record in baseball at that time. This year, they'd be the so-called 8th seed if the playoffs started today. This team doesn't have the luxury they had in 2006 of blowing the division and still getting into postseason as the wild card.

With the way the schedule shakes out, this race will definitely be decided in the last couple weeks. 13 of the final 16 games are against the Twins and White Sox including the last 6 games of the season being at home. If they're go into those last two series with a lead of a few games, I think they're ability to win at home should get them in.

[Yer a Fuckin Jerkoff]

Here's an odds update with a month left in the year:

Boston Red Sox 44%- on fire right now and positioned perfectly with lots of Fenway games left. The rest of the schedule is easy to mow through and now that the rotation is clicking like we all knew it would, they'll be close to unbeatable in October.

St. Louis Cardinals 23%- I really like the moves they have made recently and I have been a believer in this team ever since June or so. They are my pick to get to the WS and get swept by the BoSox

New York Yankees 17% not good enough to get to the World Series. Some decent pieces in place here, but no proven postseason pitchers, and that will come back to fuck them in the ass.

Detroit Tigers 6%- starting to shore up the offense and make the White Sox fans look like jackasses. Tigers will be under the radar in October.

L.A. Dodgers 5%- proving to be a fraud team as I said earlier. It's looking worse and worse as the Rockies catch up. They are a divisional round exit.

L.A. Angels 4%- Gritty as balls. If they can play the Yankees in the first round, they will be in the ALCS.

Philadelphia Phillies 1%- Not enough to get to the world series. Too inconsistant and not the same team they were back in June....but they do have an outside shot of getting there.

[Shoalzie]

The Tigers are now 7 up on the Twins...it's feeling like this team is on their way back to the postseason. That was a huge sweep this weekend on the road against a team fighting for their playoff lives.

It might actually work out well for the Tigers if they draw the Yankees in the ALDS in a best-of-5 instead of a best-of-7 in the ALCS. I think the Tigers having Jackson and Verlander start 3 or 4 of the 5 games gives them a shot at the upset and if they can get a split in New York, I think the home field advantage at Comerica might get them through like it did three years ago. I think the Tigers have the pitching to at least keep the Yankees' bat at bay but I don't think they can hang with them if they're hitting well.

I look back at the series after the All-Star break in the Bronx and they lost three close games including a pair of 2-1 losses. That was back when the offense was sputtering. The bats are coming around at the right time and I'd love to see them go into the postseason on fire versus backing in like they did in '06.

I can't help but look ahead but there is still 26 games left in the season but the magic number continues to shrink. I think they could easily go .500 the rest of the way and get in safely. The big games are obviously the head-to-head matchups with Chicago and Minnesota. It's possible that they could wrap up the division before the last week of the season and they won't have to sweat it out when the close out the season at home. They've got the Royals and Jays coming up...can't look past them and allow the Twins or the Sox to inch closer before those big series start up next weekend. Plus, there's a series in Cleveland sandwiched in and the Tribe have played the role of spoiler going down the stretch.

[Yer a Fuckin Jerkoff]

This is shaking out just like I predicted. You have to say that the Cardinals are the odds on favorite to get to the World Series and take their four game sweep medicine. The Dodgers are proving to be a fraud without a good frontline starter. Those are really the only teams in the mix in the NL.

Boston is hitting the accelerator at the perfect time, and DiceK is back ripping through lineups. And they have a series yet to play against New York next weekend where they should be able to regain the division. If they can't, they will likely play the Angels which will be a 3 game series. The Tigers are irrelevant at this juncture other than giving the Yankees fits in the ALDS. Thats IF the Yankees hold on to the division which I highly doubt they will.

Either way, the Boston over St. Louis world series sweep is more obvious today than it was at the All-Star Break.

[jiminphilly]

Philadelphia Phillies 1%- Not enough to get to the world series. Too inconsistant and not the same team they were back in June....but they do have an outside shot of getting there.

Not enough what? Pitching? Defense? Offense?

[The Seer]

However, I hear that they are a bit afraid of the Giants. The orange and black, after the first sweep, have taken two series from them and one of those was in LA. Something to keep in mind.

:D

[Shoalzie]

Philadelphia Phillies 1%- Not enough to get to the world series. Too inconsistant and not the same team they were back in June....but they do have an outside shot of getting there.

Not enough what? Pitching? Defense? Offense?

Brad Lidge

[Rack Fu]

Boston is hitting the accelerator at the perfect time, and DiceK is back ripping through lineups. And they have a series yet to play against New York next weekend where they should be able to regain the division. If they can't, they will likely play the Angels which will be a 3 game series. The Tigers are irrelevant at this juncture other than giving the Yankees fits in the ALDS. Thats IF the Yankees hold on to the division which I highly doubt they will.

This would have been a lock for the absolute worst job of prognosticating on T1B in the past week but as luck would have it, m2 stole it right from under you with his Cal will beat Oregon by four touchdowns thread.

Your crystal ball gazing still sucks though.

[The Seer]

L.A. Dodgers 5%- proving to be a fraud team as I said earlier. It's looking worse and worse as the Rockies catch up.

[Yer a Fuckin Jerkoff]

What I should do is update these odds for end of September but we'll get our picks right before the division series begin. Minnesota was the one team I completely overlooked, as did the rest of you since the White Sox were susposed to contend

Dodgers will stumble in and lose....Cards pretty much have the NL locked up.
BoSox have it set up perfectly since the Angels are the team they get to beat the shit out of once again in the ALDS. Then it's most likely the Yankees whom they own in October.

Gotta go with the teams with double Cy Youngers in there- StL/Bos in the WS, with the Sox winning in four. Looking forward to the Division Series

[Rack Fu]

The BoSox sure have everything firing on all cylinders and "setup perfectly" as they limp into the playoffs having to face a team they have a losing record against this season. Great analysis, tard. Their pitching has been just awesome as of late, right? They are also not the most healthy team heading into the postseason either.

The Sox could very well go on a run and march to another WS title. It's far more probable that they don't make it out of the series against the Angels.

[jiminphilly]

Philadelphia Phillies 1%- Not enough to get to the world series. Too inconsistant and not the same team they were back in June....but they do have an outside shot of getting there.

Not enough what? Pitching? Defense? Offense?

Brad Lidge

Madson looks pretty good..

[ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2]

The BoSox sure have everything firing on all cylinders and "setup perfectly" as they limp into the playoffs having to face a team they have a losing record against this season. Great analysis, tard. Their pitching has been just awesome as of late, right? They are also not the most healthy team heading into the postseason either.

The Angels went 8-1 in the regular season last year versus the Sux. The Sux had an injured Beckett, Lowell, and DL Drew (I know... go figure) heading into that series, while the Angels were healthy, had the best record in baseball, and Texeira. Remind me again what happened?

[Rack Fu]

The BoSox sure have everything firing on all cylinders and "setup perfectly" as they limp into the playoffs having to face a team they have a losing record against this season. Great analysis, tard. Their pitching has been just awesome as of late, right? They are also not the most healthy team heading into the postseason either.

The Angels went 8-1 in the regular season last year versus the Sux. The Sux had an injured Beckett, Lowell, and DL Drew (I know... go figure) heading into that series, while the Angels were healthy, had the best record in baseball, and Texeira. Remind me again what happened?

How often does lightning strike twice in the same exact place?

Another great effort by Boston's pitching staff again tonight. While there are some similarities to last year's series, Boston could still actually pitch going into the post season last year. Not so much right now.

[ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2]

How often does lightning strike twice in the same exact place?

Just twice? Appears to happen anytime the Angels play the Sux, apparently. As much as I despise the Sux, the Tigers have a better chance of moving on to ALCS than the Angels.

Furthermore -- are you really trying to bolster your "lack of pitching take" based upon one performance of some dude returning from injury who won't even be in their post-season rotation?

[Yer a Fuckin Jerkoff]

Just twice? Appears to happen anytime the Angels play the Sux, apparently. As much as I despise the Sux, the Tigers have a better chance of moving on to ALCS than the Angels.

Furthermore -- are you really trying to bolster your "lack of pitching take" based upon one performance of some dude returning from injury who won't even be in their post-season rotation?

If you beat your head against the wall enough times while saying "this is the year we beat them!" maybe it will come true. Some people never learn. And the funniest part is how in this series, it seems like every single time, Game 1 is IN Anaheim where everyone is fired up after killing Boston 9-0 or 8-1 in the regular season, and Lackey is ALWAYS on the bump, everyone is waving their giant red dildos and then Beckett mows them the fuck down while Papi and Pedrioa are going deep.

Why do people perceive Lackey as some awesome postseason pitcher? Since Game 7 of the '02 WS, he hasn't done shit. Dude's 0-3.

And the Red Sox are just a little nicked up in the rotation....they aren't "stumbling in." The way I see it, the last couple weeks, they realized the division wasn't for the taking, and when they saw that it was the Angels that they would get to play in the division series, they did this-------> in the clubhouse and just hit nuetral.

And It was LAST year that they had injuries yet STILL almost ripped the hearts out of that fluky Rays team.

[ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2]

Here are the Sept stats for Boston's struggling rotation that appears destined to fail:

Code: Select all

1-Sep	TB	1	0	0	6	7	2	2	9
6-Sep	CHW	1	0	0	7	4	0	2	8
13-Sep	TB	1	0	0	8	2	0	3	7
19-Sep	BAL	1	0	0	6	10	3	0	4
25-Sep	NYY	0	1	0	2.333	8	5	3	3
		Lester	4-1	3.068216684	29.333		10		
2-Sep	TB	0	0	0	6	7	4	0	9
7-Sep	CHW	0	1	0	7	6	3	2	4
12-Sep	TB	1	0	0	5	4	1	1	4
17-Sep	ANA	0	0	0	8	7	3	0	7
23-Sep	KC	1	0	0	6	12	2	1	7
		Beckett	2-1	3.65625	32		13		
15-Sep	ANA	1	0	0	6	3	0	3	5
20-Sep	BAL	1	0	0	5.3333	8	3	1	5
26-Sep	NYY	0	1	0	7	6	1	5	3
		Matsuzaka	2-1	1.963639934	18.3333		4		
3-Sep	TB	1	0	0	6	6	3	1	3
8-Sep	BAL	1	0	0	7	3	0	1	5
13-Sep	TB	0	0	0	7	5	1	3	5
18-Sep	BAL	1	0	0	6	5	1	3	1
24-Sep	KC	1	0	0	6.6667	5	0	0	8
29-Sep	TOR	0	1	0	5	8	7	1	4
		Buchholz	4-1	2.8672541	37.6667		12

Any other shit takes to offer up, Special Agent FU?

[Rack Fu]

Here are the Sept stats for Boston's struggling rotation that appears destined to fail:



Any other shit takes to offer up, Special Agent FU?

Dear Shit-for-brains,
Please provide me the quote where I said anything disparaging about their starting rotation. I believe I specifically said "their pitching" and "pitching staff." I guess relievers don't count as part of their pitching staff in your world, huh? It's great that their starters give them six solid innings. Too bad it's a nine inning game and they don't have anyone who can pitch for shit right now that can give Papelbon a good chance to close things out.

Reading comprehension is your friend.

If I may borrow from your last "great" take:

[ucantdoitdoggieSTyle2]

What reliever is getting lit up, dumbfuck? Show me some proof... Wagner? Okajima? Bard? Who in the fuck are you babbling about? Beyond Delcarmen... who only pitches when they're losing... their relievers are good.

Face it. You have... nothing.

[Yer a Fuckin Jerkoff]

What reliever is getting lit up, dumbfuck? Show me some proof... Wagner? Okajima? Bard? Who in the fuck are you babbling about? Beyond Delcarmen... who only pitches when they're losing... their relievers are good.

Face it. You have... nothing.

No shit

Boston's got the best bully in all of baseball.

And great defense outside of the catchers not being able to throw anyone out.

Pitching and D is what wins titles. BoSox have two Cys in the rotation and a lights out bullpen and defense. All they need is 4 runs a game to cruise to another title.

[Rack Fu]

Boston's got the best bully in all of baseball.

They looked fucking great today.

[jiminphilly]

Philadelphia Phillies 1%- Not enough to get to the world series. Too inconsistant and not the same team they were back in June....but they do have an outside shot of getting there.

Not enough what? Pitching? Defense? Offense?

Brad Lidge

So far so good.