Locks for this week

TheJON · Post by **TheJON** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 12:42 am

1. Notre Dame -3.5 over Michigan State
-Too much motivation and revenge on ND's side. Plus, the loss to Michigan still lingers and I expect a more talented ND team to come out fired up and hammer Michigan State and I don't care what the recent history of this series says. Notre Dame 34 Michigan State 17.

2. Iowa -20.5 over Illinois
-Illinois is fucking horrible. Ferentz' teams always play well after a nice win. This will nearly be a home game for Iowa. Iowa 45 Illinois 10.

3. USC -21 over Arizona
-Arizona is lousy. This is one of the biggest physical mismatches of the week. SC 44 Arizona 13.

4. Penn St +17 at Ohio State
-On paper this is a beatdown, but tOSU knows the run for the national title starts next week in Iowa City. Look for Ohio State to be a little sluggish even with revenge on their minds. Ohio State 23 Penn State 14.

5.Arizona St +7.5 over California
-I really think ASU is a much improved team and I'm still not sold on Cal. ASU pulled the upset 27-24.

6.Georgia -26.5 over Colorado
-Colorado is overmatched by just about anyone this year. Georgia is a damn good team. UGA 41 Colorado 3.

7.Virginia Tech -26.5 over Cincinnati
-Beamer is the master at covering against inferior opponents. Cincy can't score on this D. Va Tech 34 Cincinatti 0.

Nolesy · Post by **Nolesy** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 12:54 am

8. Jon=bitch is still Jon =bitch but he raised his game to a new level byentering only after Iowa was 3-0 and had defeated ISU. Thus he will for ever remain board bitch king.

Bobby42 · Post by **Bobby42** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 1:04 am

TheJON wrote:4. Penn St +17 at Ohio State
-On paper this is a beatdown, but tOSU knows the run for the national title starts next week in Iowa City. Look for Ohio State to be a little sluggish even with revenge on their minds. Ohio State 23 Penn State 14.

Rain/storms expected in C-bus will take away the Buckeye's passing attack. Folks have been waiting for TSmith to throw his 1st interception. He may throw one or more this weekend. Buckeye running attack vs. PSU #11 rush defense (on paper). Factor in all of this and Buckeye penalties & an unfocused tOSU will certainly fall prey to PSU. Let's see how far the revenge factor figures.

No, Jon. The run for the national title for the Buckeyes begins with conference play this Saturday..and every Saturday that follows.

King Crimson · Post by **King Crimson** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 2:38 am

TheJON wrote:
2. Iowa -20.5 over Illinois
-Illinois is fucking horrible. Ferentz' teams always play well after a nice win. This will nearly be a home game for Iowa. Iowa 45 Illinois 10.

Iowa didn't cover last week. the best rationale to bet this game is keep betting against Zook if you are on a roll doing so.

PSUFAN · Post by **PSUFAN** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 5:00 am

Rack Bobby42. Let's figger this will be a good one...

the_ouskull · Post by **the_ouskull** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 5:17 am

I'm just glad that OU's game this week is PPV. Isn't that usually where the UFC fights are...? I don't think I'd want kids watching this game...

What's the spread, anyway? 'cause, even though OU's gonna come out and open a can, MTSU usually covers.

Also, I'm glad the OU game is PPV because I don't want to have to hear the announcer's take on the OU / UO game more times than I heard that Colt McCoy rescued some guy...

the_ouskull

Terry in Crapchester · Fri Sep 22, 2006 10:18 am

King Crimson wrote:
TheJON wrote:
2. Iowa -20.5 over Illinois
-Illinois is fucking horrible. Ferentz' teams always play well after a nice win. This will nearly be a home game for Iowa. Iowa 45 Illinois 10.
Iowa didn't cover last week.

They didn't cover against Syracuse the week before, either.

the best rationale to bet this game is keep betting against Zook if you are on a roll doing so.

I'm not 100% sold on Zook being the problem here, but Illinois is horrible, much worse than the oddsmakers apparently think. Betting against them is a pretty good strategy.

Adelpiero · Post by **Adelpiero** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 10:41 am

to zooks credit, the team he inherited was complete shit. bordering temple shitty.

all he has to do is keep the top kids in state and 2/3 of kids from chicago, and illinois is bowling, and competing for a BCS bowl in the next 3-5 years. illinois steals kids from st.louis, because of its big10 fanbase, but it will come down to keeping the kids in chitown home.

you can win on the talent in chicago.

Terry in Crapchester · Fri Sep 22, 2006 12:38 pm

Adelpiero wrote:all he has to do is keep the top kids in state and 2/3 of kids from chicago, and illinois is bowling, and competing for a BCS bowl in the next 3-5 years. illinois steals kids from st.louis, because of its big10 fanbase, but it will come down to keeping the kids in chitown home.

Nice idea in theory, but it doesn't work in practice. Here's why.

According to http://www.mapquest.com the University of Illinois is about 138 miles away from Chicago. Even though Notre Dame is "out of state," ND (which recruits heavily in Chicago, btw) is still considerably closer to Chicago than is the University of Illinois. So the "stay home to play football" pitch doesn't necessarily work as to Chicago kids for the Illini. Throw in the difference in standing between the two programs, as well as the fact that there's a heavy concentration of both ND alumni and subway alumni in the Chicago area as well. For that matter, Northwestern is closer still to Chicago, and before you laugh at that comparison, at least right now Northwestern has a better program than does Illinois, although I'm not saying that's destined to continue forever.

And it's not as though Illinois, ND and Northwestern are the only schools recruiting Chicago. Virtually the entire Big Ten does, to one extent or another, and occasionally you see a school from outside the area get the occasional Chicago prospect (e.g., Syracuse and Donovan McNabb). So it's virtually impossible for Illinois to get 2/3 of the Chicago prospects. They'd be extremely fortunate to get 1/3.

Killian · Post by **Killian** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 2:00 pm

These should go over well!

Sin,

TheJON wrote:
Okay, for anyone that bets on college football, here are some picks you can take to the bookie and make a few bucks on. These spreads are per Yahoo.

Alabama -12 1/2 at Ole Miss (LOSS)
Iowa -14 1/2 vs Indiana (WIN)
Missouri -6 vs Iowa State (LOSS)
UCLA -6 at Wazzou (LOSS)
TCU -23 vs Army (LOSS)
Nebraska -2 1/2 at Baylor (WIN)
Taco Tech -14 vs K-State (WIN)
USC -11 1/2 at Notre Dame (LOSS)
Louisville -7 at West Virginia (LOSS)
Auburn -7 1/2 at Arkansas (WIN)
Cal -16 vs Oregon State (LOSS)

(Disclaimer: I do not encourage gambling on sports, especially college athletics, nor do I gamble myself. However, in the event that you were to place some bets on CFB, these are the ones you should pick. And for anyone that thinks they can beat me against the spread, you have no chance.)

JON the Greek

WolverineSteve · Post by **WolverineSteve** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 3:55 pm

I agree with 1,3, and 7.

I wouldn't play the others.

Snake · Post by **Snake** » Fri Sep 22, 2006 4:06 pm

after sundays singles matches at the Ryder Cup, one of these babes is gettin' some.....................

Degenerate · Post by **Degenerate** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 2:43 pm

Rack N0J

WolverineSteve · Post by **WolverineSteve** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 3:40 pm

TheJON wrote:1. Notre Dame -3.5 over Michigan State
-Too much motivation and revenge on ND's side. Plus, the loss to Michigan still lingers and I expect a more talented ND team to come out fired up and hammer Michigan State and I don't care what the recent history of this series says. Notre Dame 34 Michigan State 17.

2. Iowa -20.5 over Illinois
-Illinois is fucking horrible. Ferentz' teams always play well after a nice win. This will nearly be a home game for Iowa. Iowa 45 Illinois 10.

3. USC -21 over Arizona
-Arizona is lousy. This is one of the biggest physical mismatches of the week. SC 44 Arizona 13.

4. Penn St +17 at Ohio State
-On paper this is a beatdown, but tOSU knows the run for the national title starts next week in Iowa City. Look for Ohio State to be a little sluggish even with revenge on their minds. Ohio State 23 Penn State 14.

5.Arizona St +7.5 over California
-I really think ASU is a much improved team and I'm still not sold on Cal. ASU pulled the upset 27-24.

6.Georgia -26.5 over Colorado
-Colorado is overmatched by just about anyone this year. Georgia is a damn good team. UGA 41 Colorado 3.

7.Virginia Tech -26.5 over Cincinnati
-Beamer is the master at covering against inferior opponents. Cincy can't score on this D. Va Tech 34 Cincinatti 0.

Nice work there Mr. TheGreek.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Mon Sep 25, 2006 5:51 pm

So dude's absent for many months, and finally reinstates himself with a "Locks of the week" thread and proceeds to go 0-7??

BWAHAHAHAHAHA!

Fuckin' OUCH!

Van · Post by **Van** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:28 pm

0-7.

That would be damn near impossible to do even if one were to try to get 'em all wrong.

This dude managed it though, and he did it with his sure fire "lock" picks.

That's just awesome.

Terry in Crapchester · Mon Sep 25, 2006 9:43 pm

I suppose, in a sense, JON deserves props for sticking his neck out like that. But rarely does a single post result in such a complete flameout.

I almost feel sorry for JON. Almost.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:17 pm

Hey JON, can you PM me with your week 5 locks? I need to make up some ground in the PickEm.

Think hard and pick honestly, and when you're done, PM me the teams opposite of who you picked. Thanks in advance.

Bucmonkey · Post by **Bucmonkey** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:18 pm

Wow, that is the mother of crash and burns....

Adelpiero · Post by **Adelpiero** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 10:19 pm

looks like my nfl bets sunday 2-8-1

i lost everything i won saturday, sunday. +570 turned into -35.50

MiketheangrydrunkenCUfan · Mon Sep 25, 2006 11:17 pm

JON,
You should take up Keno. I think you actually win a decent amount of money when none of your picks come up...

Cuda · Post by **Cuda** » Mon Sep 25, 2006 11:20 pm

MgoBlue-LightSpecial wrote:So dude's absent for many months, and finally reinstates himself with a "Locks of the week" thread and proceeds to go 0-7??

BWAHAHAHAHAHA!

Fuckin' OUCH!

He's 7-0 when KC Paul is on board, though

At Large · Post by **At Large** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 12:06 am

LOL

That is so hilarious! I saw this bumped up and started reading through his "locks" and quickly realizing that one after the other was wrong. What's sad is that we'll egg him into doing another Lock thread and he'll try to be wrong and there'd be no way he could go 0-7 again.

L45B · Post by **L45B** » Tue Sep 26, 2006 12:17 am

Just when you thought the 2006 Board Bitch Crown was locked up...

TheJON · Post by **TheJON** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 12:32 am

Oh snap, didn't even realize I went 0-7! Rack me!

How much money did you guys win off of my picks!!??

We have a Pick 6 league and I went 1-5 and finished right near the middle of the pack (22 people in the league). It's all against the spread so that just goes to show that this was kind of a messed up week. Vegas definitely made some cash this week. I got screwed big time though...... I had Virginia +17 and that was a push (pushes in our league = loss). I also took South Florida +5 and they lost by 6. I had the Bears -3.5 and they only won by 3. Also had Iowa -20.5 and we were up 24-0 in the 4th when are 1st and 2nd string safeties went down with injury. Then, in comes Harold Dalton (a guy who has barely ever played), and he absolutely got torched and that was the only reason Illinois scored a TD, which fucked over the spread. So, even though I was 1-5, I very easily could have been 5-1.

I'll make sure to have you guys my locks for Week 5, and I'm expecting to do much better.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Wed Sep 27, 2006 12:36 am

TheJON wrote:I'll make sure to have you guys my locks for Week 5, and I'm expecting to do much better.

I'd hope so. You'd have to be all kinds of stupid in order to score less than 0.

WolverineSteve · Post by **WolverineSteve** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 6:49 am

TheJON wrote:Oh snap, didn't even realize I went 0-7! Rack me!

How much money did you guys win off of my picks!!??

We have a Pick 6 league and I went 1-5 and finished right near the middle of the pack (22 people in the league). It's all against the spread so that just goes to show that this was kind of a messed up week. Vegas definitely made some cash this week. I got screwed big time though...... I had Virginia +17 and that was a push (pushes in our league = loss). I also took South Florida +5 and they lost by 6. I had the Bears -3.5 and they only won by 3. Also had Iowa -20.5 and we were up 24-0 in the 4th when are 1st and 2nd string safeties went down with injury. Then, in comes Harold Dalton (a guy who has barely ever played), and he absolutely got torched and that was the only reason Illinois scored a TD, which fucked over the spread. So, even though I was 1-5, I very easily could have been 5-1.

I'll make sure to have you guys my locks for Week 5, and I'm expecting to do much better.

No way in hell did I expect dude to spin it as a "tough week".

0-7 is hard to do. Of course there were wierd circumstances, you could not lose 7 of 7 without weird shit happening. That's why Vegas has 100 foot Chandaliers and $1000.00 per sq. foot carpet. They don't pave the streets in gold with their own money. They count on douchebags like yourself to think "I've got an edge. I know something the wiseguys don't" Not during your best year will you beat the books. Vegas got rolled during a "perfect storm" year last year. Favorites covered at a 20 year high. They will "adjust" things this year and the betting public who loves to bet the favorite and the over will pay the books back...and then some. Smart money stays home.

Killian · Post by **Killian** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 12:51 pm

In two years you've picked 18 games. You're 4-14. And are you playing against Chimps if a 1-5 record landed you in the middle of the pack?

Sky · Post by **Sky** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 1:20 pm

MgoBlue-LightSpecial wrote:I'd hope so. You'd have to be all kinds of stupid in order to score less than 0.

BWHWHAHAHAHAHAAHA

Still, spinning this as a bad week was not the Jon response I expected either. Still, I question how these odds makers get it so damn close. I was looking over the spreads and o/u this weekend and they probably hit 8 of 10 games w/in 0.5 or 1 pt and their o/u was really close. Who makes the odds anway? Is it one group of guys and sportsbooks build off of there or what?

Dinsdale · Post by **Dinsdale** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 4:54 pm

Sky wrote:Still, I question how these odds makers get it so damn close.

To an extent, they don't...the bettors do...to an extent.

While it's crazy how accurate the oddsmakers are at this stuff, bear in mind that they don't care what the score of the game is, as a general rule. They're quite aware that they'll win some and lose some, although they prefer to set lines at just the right point to make it a "sucker bet" whenever possible. But remember, those spreads change as the week goes on...they're generally aiming to get about half the bettors to bet one way, and half to bet the other. That way, they get to keep the half of the losers, and get to keep 5% of the winners' take. Over time, it's win/win. If too many bettors are laying it on one side, they change the spread to where it tempts enough people to bet the other way, thus ensuring their 5% of the total. Win/win, as long as the betting is even on both sides. And generally, their good weeks balance out the bad ones, over time.

WolverineSteve · Post by **WolverineSteve** » Wed Sep 27, 2006 5:40 pm

^^in addition...If "tweaking" the line fails to generate more action to the other side they "call off" money to offset a potential large loss. This is when the bookies make a bet to another bookie to hedge their bets. Their goal is simply to win the vig. They don't care who wins, they only care about taking equal action on both sides.

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Thu Sep 28, 2006 5:43 am

What's absolutely hilarious about going 0-7, in a really pathetic sorta way, is that going 7-0 would actually probably be easier.

Mr T · Post by **Mr T** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 7:58 pm

IMO, jon just took the lead in the board bitch race

rack the 0-7 lock thread

Nolesy · Post by **Nolesy** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 11:22 pm

Mr T wrote:IMO, jon just took the lead in the board bitch race

rack the 0-7 lock thread

True that. This , plus rolling in AFTER Iowa is 3-0 and beats ISU seals it.

indyfrisco · Post by **indyfrisco** » Fri Sep 29, 2006 3:09 pm

There's a lot of season left.

PSUFAN · Post by **PSUFAN** » Fri Sep 29, 2006 3:22 pm

rack the 0-7 lock thread

Indeed. IMO, JON has a long way to go before he's at SissyCrown or m200l's level, though

T1B

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