How much longer do you see your coach at your program?

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Thu Jul 30, 2009 2:42 pm

Whether it be from retirement, getting fired, or moving on to another job, what is your guess as to how long your current head coach remains?

My guess with Dantonio is that if MSU can hang on to him for the next 2-3 years, this'll be his last stop. And that's not as big of an "if" as you might think. If somebody is going to nab him they've got to do it now because he's already 53 years old. But who?

He's not going to make a lateral move, it'll have to be to a major program. He admittedly has no interest in coaching outside of the midwest, because this is where all his established recruiting ties are, and this is home for him. At his age, he doesn't want to start the game all over again somewhere else. Furthermore, when you look at some of the major programs around the country, there are no foreseeable vacancies. Few guys, if any, are on the hot seat, and for some of the older coaches, their successors are already lined up. To add further to that, it's still no guarantee Dantonio would even receive an offer from any of those schools.

So that leaves, in my opinion, two possible coaching jobs that he'd leave for; the obvious one being Ohio St, and the more outside possibility, Notre Dame.

Ohio St is really the only job I see Dantonio seriously bolting for if offered. He's an Ohio guy, was a great d-coordinator there, is well respected amongst the OSU program and fanbase, good friends with the Tressel family, it's a tier 1 destination job, and the best job in the Big Ten right now. That being said, Dantonio is only 3 years younger than Tressel (53 to Tressel's 56), and Tressel has got a few more solid years left in the tank. By the time Tressel hangs it up, Dantonio will be nearing the retirement age himself. At that time, I just don't see how OSU will be interested in a 60 year old tired, aging Dantonio. They're going to want a guy they can invest in over the long haul, not a guy they can get just a few solid years from.

Then there's Notre Dame. You have to at least consider this a possibility for two reasons, 1) Uhhh, it's Notre Dame (as much as so many of us like to scoff at the notion, it's still a national destination job), and 2) it's located in the upper midwest.

Plus, just one more mediocre season and Weis could be gone in a flash, instantly opening that job up. Yet, up to this point, ND has shown they're willing to give the guy every possible opportunity to do something. With their 2009 schedule, they've set themselves up nicely for a potential 10 or 11 win season if they don't shit the bed, and that would likely take Weis off the hot seat and buy him some more time (though I think he might have to win a BCS bowl to truly do that). If that does happen, then I think you can count out Dantonio as ever being a candidate for the job. And again, he's gotta be more than just a candidate, he's gotta actually receive and accept the job in order to leave, and that's obviously no guarantee considering the level of competition he'd go up against as the next HC of ND.

Last, and probably least, you have Dantonio's statement about this being his last stop; that he has no desire to coach anywhere else. Now, I'd probably rank this dead last as to one of the reasons why he'll stay, considering what we know about head coaches and their "word," but I'm giving it at least a mention seeing as he seems to have a little bit more integrity than say, Oh, I dunno, a Nick Saban. You couple that with the fact that he wants to build MSU into a BCS-contending program, and if he does do that? He'll be an old dude by that time. Where else is he going to go? You also have to consider his relationships with guys like AD Mark Hollis, Tom Izzo, and other major players within the program and university, are about as good as it gets. For some coaches, that type of support is all it takes to stay. The expectations at MSU are high, but also reasonable, unlike many other head coaching jobs.

So I'll estimate him at 7-10 more years, and then off to retirement. Probably a generous and biased guess on my part, but we'll see.

indyfrisco · Post by **indyfrisco** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 2:49 pm

Mike Sherman will be with the Ags for 3-4 more years unless he can manage a 9-10 win season (unlikely in the XII South for us with OU/t.u. dominating.) A&M will be a coaching carousel until we catch up with t.u. and/or OU. The fans won't accept mediocre teams, but we will need to catch lightning in a bottle to help us get back to the top of the XII. A couple good seasons is all it takes to get the momentum in the program. We have the money. We have the facilities. We need the talent. That's the hardest part to change in a program. Top tier talent. Coaching can only get you so far.

King Crimson · Post by **King Crimson** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 2:58 pm

ATM has not recruited poorly....i actually thought you guys might break through with Fran in the early 00's when Mack was wearing the "can't win a big game" tag....and then the Ags might have been the "cool" school in Texas like it was in the last days of the SWC with the rich kids from Plano and such. Ags need to start playing D again, IMO.

Stoops is at OU as long as he wants to be but Switzer and Wilkinson's 3 NC's are going to start weighing like a ton of bricks for Billy Joe Cletus Sooner fan here pert quick.

Dan Hawkins has an out in his contract for the Notre Dame job. if he doesn't win 7 games this year, he's more likely to be coaching catholic high school in Idaho than waking up the echoes. Hawkins is good for two more seasons (CU can't afford to fire him, they are still paying Barney to play golf in Arizona)....but if he doesn't go bowling with KU, MU, and NU all in Boulder this year...he's toast. his assistants are kind of iffy to me. he likes to talk about how people try and hire them away but they sure look more WAC than Big XII on gameday.

and to complete the FSU/Duke trifecta: Vandy couldn't possibly have two better coaches than Bobby Johnson/Kevin Stallings....for Vandy.

WolverineSteve · Post by **WolverineSteve** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 3:22 pm

The next two seasons will tell the tale for RR. If the team improves and he keeps hauling in strong classes UM will be back near the top and he will be around as long as he likes. If the team flops around with 4, 5, 6 loss seasons after year 2 the seat will get hot.

My view....the program is on the right track. This was a transition that was going to be painful and agonizing at times, and both have been delivered. But it was a transformation akin to turning Navy into a run-n-shoot team, or Mrs. Rumps into an Olsen twin. A night and day scenario. So getting the existing players on board while RR stocks the cupboard with his guys was going to take some time. So I would say that by 2011, Devin Gardner's second year or Tate Forcier's third, UM should be competing for Big Ten titles and BCS bids. I expect to be perrinially atop the Big10 from there and RR to stay 10-12 years. Not sure what the impetus for him leaving will be, perhaps retirement, maybe the NFL. I just cannot see him leaving for another college gig.

Killian · Post by **Killian** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 3:35 pm

Interesting subject, MGo.

This is the make or break year for Weis. If he pulls off a 10-2, 11-1 season and beats USC and/or wins a BCS game, I think he will have proven to the ND fans and more importantly himself, that coach with and beat the big boys. If this happens, he will be around as long as he likes.

If he stumbles this year to a 9-3 or 8-4 type of year, including bad losses to USC and teams he should beat, he will be gone. If that is the case, I pray to God and G0d that ND looks hard at Dantonio (this is assuming the hail mary's like Meyer, Stoops, Saban don't want the job). His offensive philosophy would fit perfectly with what ND has already on the roster, and I love his ties to the midwest. If they don't look at Dantonio, I would love to see them look at Gruden, Richt, Butch Davis and possibly Brian Kelly, if he agreed to upgrade his coaching staff.

buckeye_in_sc · Post by **buckeye_in_sc** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 3:46 pm

I have been on record recently that if Tressel with the talent he has now doesn't

Beat an SEC team in CAP ONE or higher Bowl
Win a BCS game regardless of opponent
Win a BCS Championship Game regardless of opponent

within the next 3-5 years...then his time has come to step down gracefully...

I would love my future list to have

Urban - no shot more than likely
Pelini - definitely could see him back in C BUS
Fickell - current DC but not sure he is HC material

and insert BCS coach who would want a shot at OSU...who knows maybe we could get SABAN...he seems to wander every 3-4 years!

King Crimson · Post by **King Crimson** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 4:03 pm

Sudden Sam wrote:Saban at Bama? If he stays 'til the opener with VaTech, I'll be happy.

Seriously? I think he'll be in Tuscaloosa at least 5 more years.

I sorta figured Sherman would be out at A&M after this year (no matter what they do) and y'all would hire Tuberville.

Sherman has guaranteed money for way longer than a freak hire like him deserves (was he on anyone else's short-list?)....

Killian · Post by **Killian** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 4:57 pm

Jsc810 wrote:
Killian wrote:This is the make or break year for Weis. If he pulls off a 10-2, 11-1 season and beats USC and/or wins a BCS game, I think he will have proven to the ND fans and more importantly himself, that coach with and beat the big boys. If this happens, he will be around as long as he likes.

If he stumbles this year to a 9-3 or 8-4 type of year, including bad losses to USC and teams he should beat, he will be gone.
Let's see.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Sat, Sep 5 Nevada
Sat, Sep 12 at Michigan
Sat, Sep 19 Michigan State
Sat, Sep 26 at Purdue
Sat, Oct 3 Washington
Sat, Oct 17 USC
Sat, Oct 24 Boston College
Sat, Oct 31 Washington State
Sat, Nov 7 Navy
Sat, Nov 14 at Pittsburgh
Sat, Nov 21 Connecticut
Sat, Nov 28 at Stanford

Sure wins:
Nevada
Washington
Washington State
Navy
Connecticut
Stanford
Purdue
Boston College

We'll see:
Nevada
Michigan
Michigan State
USC
Pittsburgh

So the best case scenario is 11-1 and the worst is 5-7. Out of the 'we'll see' group, I see ND dropping at least 1, maybe 3. I'll call it 9-3 for the season.

FTFY.

That's how it should go with the talent ND has on their team. If Nevada is a blow out win, they are on their way. Close win or loss? Swarbrick will begin vetting candidates.

Degenerate · Post by **Degenerate** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 5:01 pm

Until this happens:

PSUFAN · Post by **PSUFAN** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 5:42 pm

~sigh

I have no fucking idea. BUT while Jay is a co-OC, and as such Joe is hands-off on the offense, the long-awaited offensive improvement is finally occurring, so long story short, I think Joe will definitely coach as long as he can and the team will be at least a top 20 shoo-in.

Van · Post by **Van** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 5:52 pm

Jsc810 wrote:Coach Miles will be at LSU as long as Coach Miles wants to be at LSU, and I suspect that will be at least until his kids graduate from high school, about 10 years from now.

Not a chance. If Miles burps up another couple seasons like last year, he'll be gone. No way he writes his own ticket there, not with the expectations LSU now has for their football program. He's going to need to win if he still expects to be there ten years from now.

As for USC, Pete's 57 or maybe even 58 now. He's going to retire at USC, unless he just gets too fed up by all the nitpicky witch hunting from the likes of the m2s and Indys of the world, at which point he'll take the NFL money and run. I don't see any way he leaves USC to go to another college job, not unless it would be some sort of pet project thing, where he basically considers himself retired as he coaches some small time local team, just for fun.

If Pete should ever retire, or leave, I wouldn't be surprised if Lane Kiffin takes over, assuming he does well at Tennessee.

Go Coogs' · Post by **Go Coogs'** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 6:03 pm

Now that Houston is turning in 8 and 9 win seasons every season, I see them turning into a stepping stone for coaches who want to take the next leap as a head coach at a major conference.

It worked for Briles. He did his five seasons at Houston and now has an opportunity to turn Baylor into a mediocre team in the toughest division in college football.

Sumlin turned in a decent season last year, but it could have been better. I think the team underachieved defensively, but he did get a nice bowl win for his efforts. Sumlin actually had a better recruiting class than Briles ever did in his five year stint with the Coogs. I think Sumlin has a real opportunity to pull out a 1-loss season in '10 which will propell him to a headcoaching position at a major conference school.

I'm fine with this cycle as long as Houston keeps dishing out 8-10 win seasons. Maybe one season they will catch lightning in a bottle and go undefeated or have one loss as I mentioned above and vie for a BCS bid. It most likely will not happen, but you never know. I'm content with the moderate success and the headcoaching position becoming a revolving door every 4-5 seasons.

As long as Houston remains a mid-major, that is all I can hope for until they change the post-season format.

indyfrisco · Post by **indyfrisco** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 6:19 pm

[SOFTBALL]

[/SOFTBALL]

JayDuck · Post by **JayDuck** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 7:57 pm

Chip Kelly, at Oregon.

Well, considering that he's yet to coach a game it should be hard to say to be sure, but under these circumstances I'd say that there are some fairly reasonable assumptions about this.

Chip is taking over for Mike Bellotti, who hand-picked him for the job and is now our Athletic Director.

It seems unlikely that Bellotti will fire him, barring some pretty pretty drastic drop offs in performance. Assuming he keeps things relatively close to the level we won at with Bellotti, there's no chance of him getting fired, and his relationship with Bellotti probably means he'll get more leeway than somebody else. I'd say the chances are pretty good that Kelly keeps Oregon at about the same level it was at with Bellotti too, but really that's just speculation. I'd like to hope that he doesn't have the same loyalty to Nick Allioti that Belloti did and gives us a new DC within a couple years, because we can only do better there.

Chip's a fairly young guy...45. He could easily coach another 20 years, assuming he produces.

It seems more likely that Kelly will move on due to success than due to failure, IMO.

However, he's a spread-option guy, so I can't see the NFL calling on him. It would have to be a 'historical' top program taking him away from Oregon, if he leaves. MIchigan, USC, Notre Dame, etc... And to be honest, I don't know if that sounds all that likely to me either.

My best guess is that he will be at Oregon for 10+ years.

Mr T · Post by **Mr T** » Thu Jul 30, 2009 8:23 pm

Terry in Crapchester · Fri Jul 31, 2009 4:37 am

Killian wrote:Interesting subject, MGo.

This is the make or break year for Weis. If he pulls off a 10-2, 11-1 season and beats USC and/or wins a BCS game, I think he will have proven to the ND fans and more importantly himself, that coach with and beat the big boys. If this happens, he will be around as long as he likes.

If he stumbles this year to a 9-3 or 8-4 type of year, including bad losses to USC and teams he should beat, he will be gone.

Slight disagreement here. Agree that if he's 10-2 or better, he'll be at ND as long as he likes.

9-3 or 8-4 is where I see a lot of iffiness. At 9-3, personally I think he'll be back, although perhaps not for the long haul. A 9-3 season would be the second straight three-win improvement upon the previous season. So far Swarbrick has been more cautious than many would like, and I see that continuing. Rather than change horses prior to the 2010 season, when a BCS bid should be the minimum goal, I think he keeps Weis on for another season in that event.

At 8-4, I think Weis is likely gone. However, if the qualitative analysis were to yield a schedule which in hindsight looks much more challenging than it does now (I wouldn't hold my breath on that happening, but I suppose anything is possible), Weis could stay for one more year.

7-5 or worse and he's gone.

Terry in Crapchester · Fri Jul 31, 2009 12:49 pm

Screw_Michigan wrote:
Terry in Crapchester wrote: Slight disagreement here. Agree that if he's 10-2 or better, he'll be at ND as long as he likes.
You guys are fucking pathetic. 10-2 season writes him a lifetime check at ND? Kind of makes me wish he'd go 10-2 (with no national title appearance and the inevitable BCS bowl game loss) so ND would keep him around forever when he'd inevitably fall back to 6-6, 7-5, 5-7 seasons.

Reality is not South Bend.

As it is, he's already under contract through 2014. A 10-2 season means that there won't be any talk of a buyout anytime soon. The ND job eats coaches alive, so I don't see him staying beyond 2014 in any event. Holtz has the longevity record for ND coaches, in the modern era anyway, at 11 seasons.

A 10-2 season followed by a 5-7 season? Yeah, that would bring back talk of a buyout. But if you want to talk reality, that's probably not happening either. We should be stronger, if anything, in 2010 than in 2009.

Btw, as long as Michigan and USC are on the schedule, bad breaks alone could get us to 10-2 every season. Not saying 10-2 every year is what I want (although it'd be a damn sight better than what we've seen over the past decade), but for anyone with a sense of reality, a 10-2 season shouldn't be a trigger to the coach getting fired.

Killian · Post by **Killian** » Fri Jul 31, 2009 1:23 pm

Screw_Michigan wrote:
Terry in Crapchester wrote: Slight disagreement here. Agree that if he's 10-2 or better, he'll be at ND as long as he likes.
You guys are fucking pathetic. 10-2 season writes him a lifetime check at ND? Kind of makes me wish he'd go 10-2 (with no national title appearance and the inevitable BCS bowl game loss) so ND would keep him around forever when he'd inevitably fall back to 6-6, 7-5, 5-7 seasons.

Reality is not South Bend.

And you have no idea what the fuck you're talking about. Inevitably fall back to 6-6, 7-5, 5-7 seasons? I think Weis is a cut above Willingham and Davie. Terry is right. If he falls back to a 5-7 season, there will be talks of a buyout. But with the way he has been recruiting, I don't think there will be a 2 year black hole like there was for the 2007 and 2008 seniors. As long as that doesn't happen, I don't think he will be falling back to those depths. Assuming what I said in my first post holds true.

Van · Post by **Van** » Fri Jul 31, 2009 4:30 pm

I think Weis is a cut above Willingham and Davie.

Why? Based on what?

His performance says he a cut below. Neither of those guys ever dragged ND to the depths they've experienced under Weis. He's still shown no sign of improving, not unless you consider ND's AD feeding him ever softer schedules a sign of improvement.

All the talk of his recruiting success has yet to materialize on the field. Most everybody else with similar recruiting classes sees immediate production from those kids. Standout production.

Hell, keep it up and sure, ND under Weis can eventually achieve 10 win seasons again. Why stop at 10-2? Why not just get rid of USC and Michigan from the schedule and shoot for undefeated seasons? There are certainly enough pastries out there for ND to schedule themselves into all the Pyrrhic success they could ever desire.

Killian · Post by **Killian** » Fri Jul 31, 2009 4:41 pm

Van wrote:
I think Weis is a cut above Willingham and Davie.
Why? Based on what?

His performance says he a cut below. Neither of those guys ever dragged ND to the depths they've experienced under Weis. He's still shown no sign of improving, not unless you consider ND's AD feeding him ever softer schedules a sign of improvement.

All the talk of his recruiting success has yet to materialize on the field. Most everybody else with similar recruiting classes sees immediate production from those kids. Standout production.

Hell, keep it up and sure, ND under Weis can eventually achieve 10 win seasons again. Why stop at 10-2? Why not just get rid of USC and Michigan from the schedule and shoot for undefeated seasons? There are certainly enough pastries out there for ND to schedule themselves into all the Pyrrhic success they could ever desire.

Do you truly believe this, Van? Or are you just trying to bait me?

He's a cut above Willingham because of his actual coaching ability as evident in his first two years. If you disagree, tell me, how many teams return their QB, WR, TB's, TE and most of the defense, including a Butkis finalist from a 9-3 team and then goes 5-7? That 5-7 team wasn't much different from the 3-9 team. They beat Navy in OT instead of losing, and they had a weak WSU team in the opening week they should have lost to, but beat in OT. Davie, he's on par with right now in terms of overall record and some would even say ability. I'll give you that one.

As far as his recruiting, don't be obtuse. Most people also don't have to rely almost entirely on their first and second recruiting classes in their third year, or their first three classes in their fourth year. I guess the production from Floyd and Rudolph as true freshman, and Clausen, Tate and Allen as true soph's wasn't stand out production. Unless you figure that they led the team last season in every major offensive category. Tate was a 1,000 yard receiver and Floyd was on his way until his knee injury against Navy. Clausen played how most Soph's play and Allen was inconsistant based on a huge gripe most have with Weis, OLine play.

Not taking the bait on the schedule bit. I've stated before, and I'll state again, ND's schedule this year is an abortion. It's revenue whoring at it's highest.

Van · Post by **Van** » Fri Jul 31, 2009 5:05 pm

Killian, look at Florida's starting twenty two last year. Count how many freshman and sophomores were in that group.

That's standout production.

Look at Julio Jones, at Bama. Look at A. J. Green, at Georgia. Dez Bryant, at Okie St. Adrian Peterson, at OU. Freshman. Sophomores. Monster production.

ND has no excuse. They aren't getting standout production from anybody, and that includes Claussen, who's merely vacillated between tough but awful to tough but passable. On a team as poor as ND's been in recent years, some of these freshman and sophomores should've come in and simply dominated. With the numbers of recruits Weis has supposedly brought in, ND should be right there with Ohio St and Florida. They should be killing people, especially considering their schedules of late.

It doesn't take five years. Good coaches get the thing turned around in year two, then they keep it there, and build it.

As for Davie and Willingham, Davie wasn't close to being as bad as Weis. ND was mostly respectable under Davie. They weren't constantly getting embarrassed. Under Willingham, ND became bad, but they started off well, same as they did under Weis. They never became nearly as bad though as they've become under Weis, to the point where they're no longer even competitive against good teams and they even lose to Navy and Syracuse, at home.

Davie and Willingham didn't preside over historical lows for the program; sustained historical lows. That's all been Charlie Weis. Whereas other coaches would be blowing up by now at ND, Weis went the opposite direction. He's dragged the program down.

Taking over from Willingham, he should've instantly been able to pull an Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops, Jim Tressell or a Pete Carroll. He was at ND, a monster program, immediately following a bad coach. (That's not to say that Tressell followed a bad coach, btw. Tressell sure did improve them immediately though.) The improvement at ND should've been similarly meteoric, especially when Willingham was the preceding act.

How can you even begin to argue otherwise? He's made ND into an embarrasment they've never been in your lifetime, or mine. He hasn't done a damn thing to right the ship. He actually ran it aground.

Killian · Post by **Killian** » Fri Jul 31, 2009 5:52 pm

Van wrote:Killian, look at Florida's starting twenty two last year. Count how many freshman and sophomores were in that group.

That's standout production.

Look at Julio Jones, at Bama. Look at A. J. Green, at Georgia. Dez Bryant, at Okie St. Adrian Peterson, at OU. Freshman. Sophomores. Monster production.

ND has no excuse. They aren't getting standout production from anybody, and that includes Claussen, who's merely vacillated between tough but awful to tough but passable. On a team as poor as ND's been in recent years, some of these freshman and sophomores should've come in and simply dominated. With the numbers of recruits Weis has supposedly brought in, ND should be right there with Ohio St and Florida. They should be killing people, especially considering their schedules of late.

Why don't you compare Michael Floyd's numbers to Julio Jones and AJ Green. Tell me that Floyd's numbers wasn't "monster production" while missing 3 games. Look at Tate's and tell me that wasn't "monster production". Also look at their surrounding cast and how many upperclassmen they had helping them out. Apples and oranges.

Van, do you watch anything besides USC? Honestly? You saying that shit is beyond stupid.

Van wrote: It doesn't take five years. Good coaches get the thing turned around in year two, then they keep it there, and build it.

Most coaches have an entire roster to work with, and can supplement any holes with JUCO's. Neither of which was the case with Weis.

Van wrote:As for Davie and Willingham, Davie wasn't close to being as bad as Weis. ND was mostly respectable under Davie. They weren't constantly getting embarrassed.

Yep, the back to back thrashings by MSU, including being down 42-3 at halftime weren't embarassing. Neither was the blood letting at Nebraska, the chineese fire drill at Purdue, the mercy killings by Texas A&M, Tennessee, Oregon State, etc. The statements like "we have to close the talent gap with MSU" and "we need to find a way to beat Navy" weren't embarassing.

Van wrote:Under Willingham, ND became bad, but they started off well, same as they did under Weis. They never became nearly as bad though as they've become under Weis, to the point where they're no longer even competitive against good teams and they even lose to Navy and Syracuse, at home.

You're right. Had they retained Willingham, they never would have experienced 3-9. We can tell by the epoch job he did at Washington in his fourth year. The year after he went 10-3, he had one of the worst recruiting classes in ND history. His apathy directly caused a poor team in 2007. Weis could have made it better by playing close to the vest and possibly beating Purdue or Navy, but is a 5-7 record that much better than a 3-9 record? One is a pile of shit, the other is a bigger pile of shit.

Van wrote:Davie and Willingham didn't preside over historical lows for the program; sustained historical lows. That's all been Charlie Weis. Whereas other coaches would be blowing up by now at ND, Weis went the opposite direction. He's dragged the program down.

Taking over from Willingham, he should've instantly been able to pull an Urban Meyer, Bob Stoops, Jim Tressell or a Pete Carroll. He was at ND, a monster program, immediately following a bad coach. (That's not to say that Tressell followed a bad coach, btw. Tressell sure did improve them immediately though.) The improvement at ND should've been similarly meteoric, especially when Willingham was the preceding act.

How can you even begin to argue otherwise? He's made ND into an embarrasment they've never been in your lifetime, or mine. He hasn't done a damn thing to right the ship. He actually ran it aground.

This is why this year is so critical for ND and Weis. Everyone knew that 2005 and 2006 would be good years and 2007 and possibly 2008 would be rebuilding years. Did any ND fan think it was going to get that bad? Hell no. But again, ND couldn't plug and play JUCO's to offset two black holes in successive years in recruiting.

Do me a favor before you write your next thesis in this thread: Do a little research on ND, their players, what they've done and what Weis has done and perhaps you won't look so foolish trying to argue a point where you have no back up. Weis isn't Lombardi, but he's not Willingham either. We'll find out this year where he will end up.

Van · Post by **Van** » Fri Jul 31, 2009 8:24 pm

No, we won't, not necessarily. Their schedule is so easy this year that ND could again see a marked improvement in their record while remaining a horrible team.

Forget the records. Records can be manufactured, to a great degree.

The gap between ND and the upper-tier teams is widening, and that should be the only barometer you care to use. Losing to teams like Navy and Syracuse, at home, that's just further proof that the ship sank.

No matter how bad Willingham or Davie were, they never lost at home to Navy, almost doing it a second time, too, and they never lost at home to a team like last year's Syracuse team.

They sure as fuck never struggled to get even a single first down against their main rival, after getting shut out the year before, at home. They never saw a 6 win season represent a three game improvement over the preceding year.

Killian, you're trying to see things as positive, instead of being objective about it. Had someone told you when Weis was hired that ND would then set records of historical futility, you would've said, "Hell no. We can't have that. We've had it bad enough, under Davie and Willingham. We can't possibly get worse."

You got worse.

It's year five now, and you're still struggling to even get back to the Willingham levels of success. You're certainly no further along now to being a title contender than you were when Willingham took over, or when Weis took over. You're just trying to tread water right now, hoping to recover.

This is exactly where you were five years ago, only five years ago you didn't have these new records of futility on the books.

You're a fan. You want to look on the bright side. Great. That's admirable.

It's called being a fan.

Killian · Post by **Killian** » Fri Jul 31, 2009 8:40 pm

Van wrote:No, we won't, not necessarily. Their schedule is so easy this year that ND could again see a marked improvement in their record while remaining a horrible team.

Forget the records. Records can be manufactured, to a great degree.

The gap between ND and the upper-tier teams is widening, and that should be the only barometer you care to use. Losing to teams like Navy and Syracuse, at home, that's just further proof that the ship sank.

No matter how bad Willingham or Davie were, they never lost at home to Navy, almost doing it a second time, too, and they never lost at home to a team like last year's Syracuse team.

They sure as fuck never struggled to get even a single first down against their main rival, after getting shut out the year before, at home. They never saw a 6 win season represent a three game improvement over the preceding year.

Killian, you're trying to see things as positive, instead of being objective about it. Had someone told you when Weis was hired that ND would then set records of historical futility, you would've said, "Hell no. We can't have that. We've had it bad enough, under Davie and Willingham. We can't possibly get worse."

You got worse.

Up until this point, I can see your argument and even agree with parts of it. I'm sure you don't realize that Davie almost lost to Navy his first year on a hail marry, and needed a ref to turn a 9 yard completion on a 4th and 10 into a first down to beat them in '99. Or that Willingham almost lost to them the week after BC in '02 and again in OT in '03. We couldn't afford historic lows. But then again, I would have told you that no matter who they hired in the winter of '04, that coach would struggle a ton in '07 and almost have to go through the whole rebuilding process that year.

But it's in this next sentence where you lose all credibility:

Van wrote:It's year five now, and you're still struggling to even get back to the Willingham levels of success.

Willingham never made the BCS and was awful on the recruiting trail. Willingham didn't get to Davie levels of success.

Van wrote:You're certainly no further along now to being a title contender than you were when Willingham took over, or when Weis took over. You're just trying to tread water right now, hoping to recover.

This is exactly where you were five years ago, only five years ago you didn't have these new records of futility on the books.

You're a fan. You want to look on the bright side. Great. That's admirable.

It's called being a fan.

This is where I disagree. When Willingham took over, there was talent, but Davie had unbalanced classes. He missed on CJ Leake, so he took 4 QB's the next class and zero Olineman. He also couldn't figure out what offense to run. When Willingham took over, he had a top flight defense and rode that to an 8-0 start and a strong class. After that, he didn't recruit. Weis, for all of his faults, has recruited his ass off. So if he doesn't get it done and he gets the axe, the next will walk into a BCS caliber lineup.

Terry in Crapchester · Sat Aug 01, 2009 11:08 am

A few nits to pick here . . .

Van wrote:No matter how bad Willingham or Davie were, they never lost at home to Navy

And no matter how bad Weis has been, he's never lost to Michigan State five times in a row. Davie did.

Killian wrote:Willingham never made the BCS

In fairness, this is something of an apples-and-oranges comparison. The BCS rule changes beginning in the '06 season made it much easier for ND to qualify for the BCS. ND made the BCS in '06 whereas a team with a similar resume would not have made it in previous seasons. On the opposite side of that coin, ND's '02 team would have made the BCS had the current rules applied back then.

He [Davie] also couldn't figure out what offense to run.

Weis also fell into this trap, if only briefly. Demetrius Jones out front told me so.

Btw, Davie's career record at ND was 35-25. Weis' career record, entering this season, is 29-21. He's poised to overtake Davie this season, and likely will do so. In fairness, Davie's career record was accumulated against generally tougher schedules, although it wasn't until last year that the disparity in that regard became huge.

Terry in Crapchester · Sat Aug 01, 2009 4:23 pm

Jsc810 wrote:
Terry in Crapchester wrote:The BCS rule changes beginning in the '06 season made it much easier for ND to qualify for the BCS.
Finally, you admit it. :P

I've never denied it. There used to be 2 at-large BCS bids; there are now 4. As a matter of simple mathematics, 4 > 2 (I think I learned that one in first grade). Always has been, and always will be.

That having been said, that wasn't the impetus for the addition of the two BCS at-large bids. If you look at the new rules, it's clear that the primary purpose was to make the path easier for non-BCS programs ('sup, TCU).

The rule that's worked to ND's advantage the most was an old rule, and the advantage it's given to ND is probably the result of the law of unintended consequences. I'm talking about the rule that limits at-large BCS bids to no more than one per conference. That had no practical impact on ND under the old rules. But with four at-large BCS bids, and given that the BCS conferences aren't all equal, or even remotely close to equal, in terms of overall strength, that rule now provides ND, at least potentially, with a huge advantage.

'06 was a prime example. Under the BCS rules, Michigan (#3) and Boise State (#8) were automatic qualifiers. Michigan's selection eliminated Wisconsin (#7) from further BCS consideration. LSU (#4) wasn't an automatic selection, but they were a no-brainer for an at-large bid. That selection eliminated Auburn (#9) and Arkansas (#12) from further BCS consideration. That left ND (#11) and West Virginia (#13) as the only teams eligible for the final BCS bid.

stuckinia · Post by **stuckinia** » Sun Aug 02, 2009 10:57 pm

Beamer will coach the Hokies until he dies. Hopefully Foster will take over.

TheJON · Post by **TheJON** » Sun Aug 02, 2009 11:48 pm

Ferentz will retire at Iowa. I never thought I would ever say that but if he was going to leave for the NFL, he would have done it by now. He's had far too many good offers. If Belichik has his way (and he will), there's a very good chance he will choose Kirk to replace him. The only question is, does Kirk want to go to the NFL? He's got too good of job security and guaranteed money to leave. So my guess is if Belichik wants him to replace him someday, it's 50/50 if he leaves. If not then I doubt he ever does leave until he's ready to retire.

stuckinia · Post by **stuckinia** » Mon Aug 03, 2009 12:19 am

I suppose failing with 45 NFL players rather than 105 NFL-calibre players will be quite a step up.

TheJON · Post by **TheJON** » Mon Aug 03, 2009 4:37 pm

stuckinia wrote:I suppose failing with 45 NFL players rather than 105 NFL-calibre players will be quite a step up.

Yeah, he's been terrible. We shoulda fired him right after we hired him. It's pretty much been 1970's Iowa-bad under Kirk. Just horrible.

MuchoBulls · Post by **MuchoBulls** » Mon Aug 03, 2009 5:47 pm

I see Coach Leavitt staying here until he is ready to retire. He's from this area, has family in this area and started this program from scratch. Those factors alone would make it hard for him to leave. He's already turned down Alabama (twice) and Kansas State (where he came from before being hired here), so he has shown a loyalty to USF when he could have left for more money.

TheJON · Post by **TheJON** » Mon Aug 03, 2009 7:44 pm

MuchoBulls wrote:I see Coach Leavitt staying here until he is ready to retire. He's from this area, has family in this area and started this program from scratch. Those factors alone would make it hard for him to leave. He's already turned down Alabama (twice) and Kansas State (where he came from before being hired here), so he has shown a loyalty to USF when he could have left for more money.

He's a fantastic coach. To take that program from where it was to where it is now is simply amazing. And to do it against the kind of competition he has in his own state is even more amazing. My question is has he built the program to a point where it's almost impossible to win at the level the fans want? This was the problem with Ferentz taking Iowa to 3 straight top 10 finishes in that it made some of our idiot fans think that anything short of 10 wins is unacceptable when, in reality, you just can't do that consistently at Iowa. I wonder if that will be the case with USF.

King Crimson · Post by **King Crimson** » Mon Aug 03, 2009 8:14 pm

I'm pretty sure Leavitt is waiting for the Cal job.

L45B · Post by **L45B** » Mon Aug 03, 2009 9:13 pm

King Crimson wrote:I'm pretty sure Leavitt is waiting for the Cal job.

Can't see it. Why would he want the pressure of having to win an average of 3 MNCs every season? On top of that, I doubt he really covets the responsibility of booking the team's flight and coordinating last minute hotel arrangements and wake-up calls for every road game.

Killian · Post by **Killian** » Tue Aug 04, 2009 1:10 pm

TheJON wrote:
MuchoBulls wrote:I see Coach Leavitt staying here until he is ready to retire. He's from this area, has family in this area and started this program from scratch. Those factors alone would make it hard for him to leave. He's already turned down Alabama (twice) and Kansas State (where he came from before being hired here), so he has shown a loyalty to USF when he could have left for more money.
He's a fantastic coach. To take that program from where it was to where it is now is simply amazing. And to do it against the kind of competition he has in his own state is even more amazing. My question is has he built the program to a point where it's almost impossible to win at the level the fans want? This was the problem with Ferentz taking Iowa to 3 straight top 10 finishes in that it made some of our idiot fans think that anything short of 10 wins is unacceptable when, in reality, you just can't do that consistently at Iowa. I wonder if that will be the case with USF.

I think the difference is that no matter how Iowa does, they will always have to over come OSU and UofM, and to a lesser extent, PSU. While the head to head is in Iowa's favor, PSU has gone to two BCS bowls in the last 4 years, winning one. In the Big East, they have no one who you look at year after year and say "that's the team" now that Miami, VaTech and BC left. Throw in Rodriguez bolting to UofM and WVU is a huge question mark. That leaves teams like USF and Cincinnati the ability to jump up and take a strangle hold on the conference.

MuchoBulls · Post by **MuchoBulls** » Tue Aug 04, 2009 2:09 pm

TheJON wrote:He's a fantastic coach. To take that program from where it was to where it is now is simply amazing. And to do it against the kind of competition he has in his own state is even more amazing. My question is has he built the program to a point where it's almost impossible to win at the level the fans want? This was the problem with Ferentz taking Iowa to 3 straight top 10 finishes in that it made some of our idiot fans think that anything short of 10 wins is unacceptable when, in reality, you just can't do that consistently at Iowa. I wonder if that will be the case with USF.

The expectation level has certainly gone up and there was a good deal of disappointment with a bad year in 2008, but I think that made the fans realize that it's a bit tougher to be that consistent year after year when we are still a newcomer to Division 1 A football.

We had a very good recruiting class this year and we are getting better looks at players that would have never given USF a second thought, so I think that we will be seeing more consistency in the next couple of years.

This season is tough to gauge. The Big East is wide open this season. We have some big questions on the OL and some in the secondary, but there are 4 other teams who also have big question marks surrounding their respective teams who have a good shot to win the league. I can see us winning anywhere from 7 to 10 games.

Felix · Post by **Felix** » Tue Aug 04, 2009 3:25 pm

Chris Petersen has a pretty good thing going at Boise State, but he'll eventually give in to the temptation of a higher paying gig with the chance to consistently compete at the BCS level....

one thing is that he's pretty good friends with Dirk Koetter and Koetter is constantly reminding Pete that the grass is not always greener (s'up ASU) on the other side...hopefully he'll be around for at least 2-3 more years

MgoBlue-LightSpecial · Tue Aug 04, 2009 3:34 pm

Killian wrote:I think the difference is that no matter how Iowa does, they will always have to over come OSU and UofM, and to a lesser extent, PSU. While the head to head is in Iowa's favor, PSU has gone to two BCS bowls in the last 4 years, winning one. In the Big East, they have no one who you look at year after year and say "that's the team" now that Miami, VaTech and BC left. Throw in Rodriguez bolting to UofM and WVU is a huge question mark. That leaves teams like USF and Cincinnati the ability to jump up and take a strangle hold on the conference.

Add to that, USF and Cincy are both located in and around recruiting hotbeds. Even if they are just snatching up leftovers, that's still some pretty good eatin'. I could definitely see those two teams rise to the top in the Big East.

Nolesy · Post by **Nolesy** » Wed Aug 05, 2009 7:43 pm

stuckinia wrote:Beamer will coach the Hokies until he dies. Hopefully Foster will take over.

Foster will come to FSU when Mickey Andrews retires in 2 years.