The Coming Market Crash

Y2K · Post by **Y2K** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 3:56 am

Scott,
as a tech geek kinda guy I already know about some of the incredible advances about to hit the market in the next 2 years with Quad Core processors running on 1000 Mhz bus speeds, quad channel RAM, blue Ray DVD and the use of multiple video processers on card with a gig of Ram. Apple is solid as a rock and will push Intel back into profitability and if MS Vista sells as good as predicted it will carry good profit margins in a tech heavy Nasdaq far into 08 and beyond if intrest rates stay reasonable and consumers have a green light to buy all the new gadgets in store for 07.

Sorry but your charts don't represent reality, sure an attack upon the market will destableize it but not anything longterm.

Just my 2 cents

Dinsdale · Post by **Dinsdale** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 5:02 pm

Y2K wrote:Apple is solid as a rock and will push Intel back into profitability

In addition to the new breakthrough product designs, Intel is in the midst of a major managerial/corporate restructuring to reduce operating expenses. Combine these two, and Intel should be profitable again.

And Hewlett Packard is getting ready to release some products that should have an impact on enterprise-scale printing. Greater speed and resolution from high-speed printers(in the form of new efficiency/technology in drum-fed inkjets).

U&L guy knows these things.

A.C. Crut · Post by **A.C. Crut** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 5:17 pm

I'm in a long position on this thread at 9 pages, I got in at 3 pages so that will be a profit of 6 pages of incredible dialogue and financial analysis/advice.

12.

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 7:11 pm

As usual, I see you trying to backpeddle, spin or just outright lie your way out of this thread

Here's your bullshit - One point at at a time.

mvscal wrote: YOU are the dumbfuck who thinks low crude prices will tank the stock market.

Sorry you couldn't understand - it figures to be well above your head.
Big Oil is a major component of the indexes - when it dropped it took $$$ out of the indexes.
It's just making it back to a resistance level now.
Go look at OIH when it hits 131.40 - 131.80 it will reverse trend and head backdown again.

YOU are the dumbfuck who predicted the NASDAQ would be down when it continues to trend upwards.

I've already put my prediction on the Naz and where it will top; Around 2445
Time will tell if this is right or wrong

YOU are the dumbfuck who is predicting a market crash on imaginary market conditions.

Oversold on low volume is not an imaginary market condition.
Trends are not imaginary market conditions.
You thinking you know what your talking about is an imaginary market condition

YOU are the dumbfuck who continues to lose ground on the stocks you shorted because you don't have a fucking clue of what you're doing.

I posted my short price and what price I covered the shorts of AMD and ADI at.
Nice try at the Lie, but read the thread - I made profit of 2 of the 3 shorts.
KLAC is the only short I still have open and the cost basis on it is now 48.75

Nope. Many people far smarter and better educated than you can ever hope to be think it is a buy. I brought it up to illustrate the fact that you are a total idiot. You saw a single, utterly meaningless stock drop and you shit all over yourself and cashed out.

And yet just a couple threads earlier I pointed out where you again are full of shit.
I've never owned MRVL long or short - but it's drop along with the other semis demonstrated a strong trend.

But since you posted that little nugget of wisdom, I'm going to track MRVL through this thread to show just what a dumbuck you are

you are sackless pussy.

Bwa! - I made my calls, yet you don't have the spine to make any except to sit of the sidelines and toss rocks.
You've answered every call out with cowerdice.
Better to have gone to the plate and struck out than to have never gotten up at all.
Enjoy your seat in the dugout, MVnoSpine

Raydah James · Post by **Raydah James** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 8:38 pm

I see Scott is getting his Jurassic Ass beat down yet again........

mvscal wrote:
KC Scott wrote:No balls to make his own call, though
I already made my call: You don't know what the fuck you're talking about.

YOU are the dumbfuck who thinks low crude prices will tank the stock market.

YOU are the dumbfuck who predicted the NASDAQ would be down when it continues to trend upwards.

YOU are the dumbfuck who is predicting a market crash on imaginary market conditions.

YOU are the dumbfuck who continues to lose ground on the stocks you shorted because you don't have a fucking clue of what you're doing.

The fact he thinks MRVL is a buy
Nope. Many people far smarter and better educated than you can ever hope to be think it is a buy. I brought it up to illustrate the fact that you are a total idiot. You saw a single, utterly meaningless stock drop and you shit all over yourself and cashed out.

Not only are you a complete idiot who doesn't know the first thing about investing, you are sackless pussy.

You are better off out of the market, though. You clearly don't have the nerve, the knowledge or the aptitude for it.

I was chuckling lightly throughout this thread........and fucking lost it laughing at this post.

RACK mvscal

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 10:23 pm

RJ,

Surprised you'd open a thread about Money and trading stocks when you have neither.

Now if this thread had been called "Minimum Wage to Increase for Gym employees" then I would understand.

Good to see you continue to dangle off MVnoSpines nuts, though. I'm sure he appreciates having a simple minded cabana boy to scratch for him.

Raydah James · Post by **Raydah James** » Mon Oct 16, 2006 10:31 pm

KC Scott wrote:RJ,

Surprised you'd open a thread about Money and trading stocks when you have neither.

Now if this thread had been called "Minimum Wage to Increase for Gym employees" then I would understand.

Good to see you continue to dangle off MVnoSpines nuts, though. I'm sure he appreciates having a simple minded cabana boy to scratch for him.

Lets see-one of us bought an oceanfront condo complete with launch rights and has a boat in the garage in one of the most desireable and beautiful places to live in this country.

The other has a home in a redneck shithole that people aspire to get the fuck out of and has just shit the bed from being a gaping pussy in the stock market.

Who would I rather be.......hmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmmm.

Bottom line-you dont fucking rate old man.

Bow to your master, bluehair.

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Tue Oct 17, 2006 2:04 am

Raydah James wrote:

Lets see-one of us bought an oceanfront condo complete with launch rights and has a boat in the garage in one of the most desireable and beautiful places to live in this country.

How did you afford it?

Did you finally kick your coke habit?

Hard to believe anyone would pay much for the Hans & Franz treatment,
But as long as it keeps you in VO5 I guess you can't complain.

I'm sure if you did actually buy property (which I kinda doubt) -
your stuck with a Negative amortiztion ARM or something equally horrific,
beacuse frankly, your not smart.

War Wagon · Post by **War Wagon** » Tue Oct 17, 2006 2:39 am

KC Scott wrote: If I'm wrong, then they miss out on a few % up and can buy back in.

I'll wait two more weeks, and won't have lost a damn thing.

Rack Scotty.

Mister Bushice · Post by **Mister Bushice** » Tue Oct 17, 2006 2:49 am

Scott,

You just need to know how to interpret Jimmy.

Raydah James wrote: Lets see-one of us bought an oceanfront condo

Means:

and

has a boat in the garage in one of the most desireable and beautiful places to live in this country.

means:

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Tue Oct 17, 2006 3:58 am

For anybody wondering what will happen to KLAC on Tuesday or why I'd increase my short on them as they have gone up:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061016/kla_tenc ... .html?.v=5

AP
KLA Tencor to Take $400M Options Charge
Monday October 16, 8:26 pm ET
By Michael Liedtke, AP Business Writer
KLA Tencor Braces for $400 Million Blow for Mishandled Options

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- KLA Tencor Corp.'s mishandling of stock options will cost the company up to $400 million -- a blow that provoked the supplier of chip-making equipment to cancel the options of its former chief executive.

With Monday's announcement, San Jose-based KLA joins a lengthening list of companies facing up to the consequences of stock option chicanery that went undetected for years.

The repercussions are erasing a substantial chunk of past profits and spurring efforts to clean out executive suites and boardrooms as federal regulators and prosecutors explore possible civil penalties and criminal charges.

In the past week alone, more than a dozen executives and directors at six companies nationwide have either resigned or been fired. Four of those companies are based in Silicon Valley, which has become the focal point of the latest scandal to rock corporate America.

In its reckoning, KLA acknowledged company insiders improperly booked employee stock options from July 1997 through June 2002. KLA will absorb charges of up to $400 million to correct the bogus accounting caused by the shenanigans.

The company had previously reported profits totaling $710 million during that five-year period.

Although KLA didn't directly blame anyone for the misconduct, its actions pointed at its former CEO, Kenneth Schroeder, and top lawyer, Stuart Nichols. The company fired Schroeder, who had been a special adviser since his January retirement as CEO, and accepted the resignation of Nichols, who had been general counsel since 2000.

Schroeder, 60, was KLA's president and chief operating officer from 1991 to 1999 when he was promoted to CEO.

To penalize the former executives, KLA said it will cancel all of Schroeder's outstanding stock options and re-price Nichols' awards so he won't benefit unfairly. The company said it will also re-price the options of its chief operating officer, John Kispert, because he was chief financial officer during part of the time tainted by the mishandled stock options.

KLA absolved Kispert of any wrongdoing, as well as its current CEO, Richard Wallace, and current chief financial officer, Jeffrey Hall.

Both the Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Justice Department are still investigating KLA's past stock option practices. The federal government task force looking for evidence of stock option malfeasance is based in San Francisco.

Like most other companies entangled in the scandal, KLA's troubles revolve around a technique known as "backdating," which occurs when insiders look back in time for a low point in their company's stock price so the exercise, or "strike," price of the options could be set at that ebb.

If they aren't properly disclosed, backdated options can inflate corporate profits and result in an underpayment of taxes.

Silicon Valley has been caught in the eye of the stock option storm because of an entrepreneurial culture that embraced the rewards during the 1990s as the best way to get rich fast. That mind-set encouraged high-tech companies to pass out stock options like candy on Halloween.

All told, at least 135 companies nationwide have disclosed internal inquiries or government investigations into the accounting of past stock options.

=============================

Also on Tuesday EMC will opn up "Earnings Season" for big tech. - I'm expecting some ugly numbers and ugly guidance. This will reverberate through the tech stocks. After the bell Intel reports, and while I think they will not suck, they will also not inspire.

=============================

Some of you asked (OK 2 of you so far) asked how to make money if the market drops and you don't want to open a margin account and short the market or individual stocks - There are a couple ways:

If you buy stocks - You can buy QID
This is an inverse ETF that provides double the daily opposite return of the Nasdaq.

They also offer SDS (S&P 500) & DXD (Dow) inverse ETFs. (Simply put, if the markets drop - these go up)

Rydex offers a family of Mutual Funds (Bear) that do the same thing:

http://www.rydexfunds.com/ourproducts/f ... iles.shtml

I'm not big on the Rydex funds beacuse of the management fees(1.5%) , but they do provide an alternative.

Goober McTuber · Post by **Goober McTuber** » Tue Oct 17, 2006 1:34 pm

Here’s a take that always gets a chuckle out of me:

KC Scott wrote: your not smart.

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Tue Oct 17, 2006 4:13 pm

For those interested - EMC down 6% today after earnings announcement.

Semi conductors Down 3% - Intel reports tonight.

The tech breakdown is begining - the NAZ is down 32 points now.

As mentioned earlier, the prediction is it will fall below 2300 then rise back to around 2445 before it begins the big dive.

poptart · Post by **poptart** » Tue Oct 17, 2006 4:41 pm

What time does mvscal log on ... ?

I like his news reports better.

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 6:01 pm

KLAC Down 7% since Monday.

Self off in the semi conductors accelerating
SMH (semiconductor holder index) ETF Down 6% since Monday

QID - Bear Nasdaq ETF up $2.50 since Monday

=================================

From a particular Trader who is calling this market top:

I dont believe in Dow theory, I believe in modern market theory - the market is constantly changing over time and is a time-varying process. As technology, preferences,government policy variables and rate of financial innovation change, the market can experience different states -- steady state random walk, coherent cycles, and chaotic dynamics. This model helps you understand why Dow theory is no longer valid.

In this time and age, it is the Nasdaq theory that rules. Yes. It is my theory. Nasdaq theory replaced Dow Theory because we are no longer in industrial age, it is all about technology. Technology is the main engine of this economy , not industrials.

That is why Nasdaq leads all other indices over the long run. Within the technology, it is Semiconductors that holds the core leadership role because Semiconductors is the oil of technology. The fundamental material that is needed for anything evertyhing in tech.

And for the last 10 months, the way Nasdaq negatively diverged from Dow and S&P, and the way Semicondictors negatively diverged from Nasdaq is quite telling about what is about to hit the market. A top of historical importance, in my words "MOTHER OF ALL TOPS" about to be made...

Mister Bushice · Post by **Mister Bushice** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 8:29 pm

Scott,

Why don't you start and mod a stocks forum here? There are certainly enough people here who are investing.

Don't think I've ever seen one anywhere.

I don't really know the terminology, but I wouldn't mind learning some of it at more of a tard training level. The stock sites and the charts, graphs and lingo are a bit overwhelming to pick up easily.

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Wed Oct 18, 2006 10:43 pm

Mister Bushice wrote:Scott,

Why don't you start and mod a stocks forum here? There are certainly enough people here who are investing.

Don't think I've ever seen one anywhere.

I don't really know the terminology, but I wouldn't mind learning some of it at more of a tard training level. The stock sites and the charts, graphs and lingo are a bit overwhelming to pick up easily.

Will -

If you guys want to set one up, I'll Mod it - Just can't say how much time I can devote to it.

But the basic advice to everyone right now is pretty easy - Move into cash (or go short) so you don't get creamed.

AMD was another of my shorts -

Tonight it is down 14% in after hours

Wonder where MVS is? ;)

A.C. Crut · Post by **A.C. Crut** » Thu Oct 19, 2006 6:23 pm

bump

protecting my investment

fix · Post by **fix** » Thu Oct 19, 2006 10:18 pm

KC Scott wrote:
Mister Bushice wrote:Scott,

Why don't you start and mod a stocks forum here? There are certainly enough people here who are investing.

Don't think I've ever seen one anywhere.

I don't really know the terminology, but I wouldn't mind learning some of it at more of a tard training level. The stock sites and the charts, graphs and lingo are a bit overwhelming to pick up easily.
Will -

If you guys want to set one up, I'll Mod it - Just can't say how much time I can devote to it.

But the basic advice to everyone right now is pretty easy - Move into cash (or go short) so you don't get creamed.

AMD was another of my shorts -

Tonight it is down 14% in after hours

Wonder where MVS is? ;)

Done...

poptart · Post by **poptart** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 7:46 am

The dow has gained about 4.3% since you gave your warning, Scott.

If someone had a $100,000 portfolio tied up in ONE dow index fund, and they moved it ALL to cash upon your warning, they would have 'lost' $4,300 by now.
If they had a $500,000 portfolio and moved it to cash they would be out $21,500.

You said the NASDAQ would take a dive within 6 weeks of your post (Oct 3).
It's made good progress upward since then, and we're only about a week away from the 6-week mark.

What say you .... ?

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 4:24 pm

poptart wrote:The dow has gained about 4.3% since you gave your warning, Scott.

If someone had a $100,000 portfolio tied up in ONE dow index fund, and they moved it ALL to cash upon your warning, they would have 'lost' $4,300 by now.
If they had a $500,000 portfolio and moved it to cash they would be out $21,500.

You said the NASDAQ would take a dive within 6 weeks of your post (Oct 3).
It's made good progress upward since then, and we're only about a week away from the 6-week mark.

What say you .... ?

I made my call about the Naz topping too soon.
If you go back and read through this thread, you'll see that my theory was money was not going to the Naz
And the divergence upward of the dow and SP500 vs. Naz would eventually drag down all the markets.
I still firmly believe this to be true.

Right now the Naz is at a critical juncture.
The Naz has just touched it's previous 52 week high -
What it does from here will determine the direction for the next 12 months.
If it moves up on any type of volume then I will promptly declare I was wrong and go bullish.
If, as I expect it falters at this level, this will be confirmation of of the call and it will begin to correct.

It may be at least 2 more weeks before we have a solid signal, one way or the other.

Watch Gold / Materials and Oil as contrarian indicators.
Both are on the rise - This is a bearish indicator for the Naz and the market in general
I missed the Gold blow up - but caught Oil at the breakout.

Sirfindafold · Post by **Sirfindafold** » Wed Apr 25, 2007 2:20 pm

you're a fuckin' jerkoff.

indyfrisco · Post by **indyfrisco** » Wed Apr 25, 2007 2:47 pm

Scott,

Please tell me when I can put my cash back into the market.

Sin,
Still Waiting In The Money Market Account

Ruff · Post by **Ruff** » Wed Apr 25, 2007 11:51 pm

oh no, you wait and see.

I know for a fact the market will go down again.

I also suffer from the same problem Scott does, no clue when or how much.

Bucmonkey · Post by **Bucmonkey** » Thu Apr 26, 2007 12:02 am

*sigh*

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Tue May 01, 2007 4:13 pm

IndyFrisco wrote:Scott,

Please tell me when I can put my cash back into the market.

Sin,
Still Waiting In The Money Market Account

For my 401K and the majority of my holdings (90%) I've been cash since Nov. 07
I've been short and long different issues in my trading account.

My call on a crash was off (although some view the March 9% drop a mini crash) -
The follow through selling didn't materialize - there is still a lot of liquidity in the markets.

So now I'm looking for for an entry point.
According to someone who has proved himself very adept at identifying cycles:

maybe a minor 2.5 wk low can bottom around 6/1. may 15/16 approx is a possible 10 wk low, mid to late july the 4.5yr,80w,40,w,20w,10w,5w,2.5w nest of cycle lows.

Dale is targeting mid- July as a bottom. That would also jive with last years dive and would make sense as right now earnings growth is stunted and there needs to be an impetus to move the market higher. The fed is going to have to step in and lower rates to help save the housing market - that would be the signal that a bottom is close.

Again - Just my opinion for what it's worth

indyfrisco · Post by **indyfrisco** » Fri May 04, 2007 8:46 pm

mvscal wrote:I sincerely hope you're joking.

I was.

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Thu Jul 26, 2007 4:28 pm

KC Scott wrote:
So now I'm looking for for an entry point.
According to someone who has proved himself very adept at identifying cycles:

maybe a minor 2.5 wk low can bottom around 6/1. may 15/16 approx is a possible 10 wk low, mid to late july the 4.5yr,80w,40,w,20w,10w,5w,2.5w nest of cycle lows.
Dale is targeting mid- July as a bottom. That would also jive with last years dive and would make sense as right now earnings growth is stunted and there needs to be an impetus to move the market higher. The fed is going to have to step in and lower rates to help save the housing market - that would be the signal that a bottom is close.

Again - Just my opinion for what it's worth

Dale nailed this cycle bottom - all the indexes are getting hammered this week.
The "reasons" given by the media being concerns over liquidity, Motgage debt, etc - it's just smoke.

If anyone was still cash and looking for a good entry point into the market, it is close or possibly here right now.

The longer term forecast is a huge bull run after the dust settles on this shakeout.

poptart · Post by **poptart** » Fri Jul 27, 2007 3:15 am

Why the long term bull run forecast?

And what IS long term?

ty

Mister Bushice · Post by **Mister Bushice** » Fri Jul 27, 2007 7:09 am

KC Scott wrote:
KC Scott wrote:
So now I'm looking for for an entry point.
According to someone who has proved himself very adept at identifying cycles:

maybe a minor 2.5 wk low can bottom around 6/1. may 15/16 approx is a possible 10 wk low, mid to late july the 4.5yr,80w,40,w,20w,10w,5w,2.5w nest of cycle lows.
Dale is targeting mid- July as a bottom. That would also jive with last years dive and would make sense as right now earnings growth is stunted and there needs to be an impetus to move the market higher. The fed is going to have to step in and lower rates to help save the housing market - that would be the signal that a bottom is close.

Again - Just my opinion for what it's worth
Dale nailed this cycle bottom - all the indexes are getting hammered this week.
The "reasons" given by the media being concerns over liquidity, Motgage debt, etc - it's just smoke.

Nope. Friend of mine is a realtor. He's got 40 plus foreclosures on his books right now. No smoke.

If anyone was still cash and looking for a good entry point into the market, it is close or possibly here right now.

I've been sitting on 20K in a 4% int account for a year, waiting for this scenario.

So - entry point into what?

The longer term forecast is a huge bull run after the dust settles on this shakeout.

Bush has relied on the housing market to buoy up his economy. I agree he will fall back on that soon as his saving grace. So many people are taking a fucking beating all up and down the line because of this int rate and foreclosure shit. His house of cards will fall real fast if he doesn't do something soon.

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Fri Jul 27, 2007 1:45 pm

Will,

First thing to understand is that for all intent and purpose - The stock Market and The state of the Ecomony are not tied together. The Stock market is Lehman & Goldman Sachs and Da Boyz and they can make or break the markets at any time the deisre.

That said - there are absolutely segments of the market that rise and fall as funds and bokerages move in and out. Homebuilding and the subprime crdit market are two perfect examples of bear market for the last 6 months.

David,

By longer term the next leg up on this current bull should run all the way till Jan 09 - Reasons for a continuation of this run is the amount of liquidity sitting in accounts just like Will (and me) - Also there is a huge amount of capital coming in from China / India right now - Once this final shakeout is done we should see some nice gains for a while.

Mister Bushice · Post by **Mister Bushice** » Fri Jul 27, 2007 5:46 pm

The foreclosure rate is at a 15 year high and rising. People are out of work because of the slowdown in home sales. Not just contractors, but home furnishing people, decorators, painters, carpet and flooring businesses, etc. Hell, Lowes is a ghost town here, where a year ago it was crowded.

A couple of years back a neighbor of mine dropped 60K on a new house, a second home investment property. The value of that house has dropped 100k, and he's about to lose it to the bank because he can't sell it and the rent is lower than the mortgage, and the bank won't refi. I believe he'll be stopping payments soon.

The market is glutted with new and foreclosed homes that no one can afford to buy. The ripple effect to the economy is at the first wave right now.

Bush rode the economic wave of the housing boom. That's over and in a bad way. Unemployment will begin to rise if it hasn't already.

You think this is all a good thing?

Mister Bushice · Post by **Mister Bushice** » Fri Jul 27, 2007 9:58 pm

You should try telling that to all the unemployed builders, craftsmen, contractors and the myriad of businesses tied to the home building industry. A pilot friend of mine says when he flies over the newer residential neighborhoods in cen-cal all he sees are hundreds of bare concrete pads that are surrounded by weeds and tall grass.

Mister Bushice · Post by **Mister Bushice** » Fri Jul 27, 2007 10:52 pm

they may be employed ( as in real estate agents or business catering to the industry) but they aren't making shit for money.

PL · Post by PL » Sat Jul 28, 2007 4:40 am

high foreclosure rates mean i can buy a high value house off some sucker for pennies on the dollar. i see no problem with market corrections

Fat Bones · Post by **Fat Bones** » Tue Aug 07, 2007 10:32 am

Cramer's melting with the Market

Mister Bushice · Post by **Mister Bushice** » Thu Aug 09, 2007 9:23 pm

Meanwhile, The Dow has plunged nearly 800 points in three weeks:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070809/wall_street.html?.v=64

Mister Bushice · Post by **Mister Bushice** » Thu Aug 09, 2007 11:49 pm

That's just about what happened

You left off the subtitle:

back to front Chickenshit french bank, investors

War Wagon · Post by **War Wagon** » Fri Aug 10, 2007 3:17 am

Mister Bushice wrote:Meanwhile, The Dow has plunged nearly 800 points in three weeks:

And is still up 6.5% for the year.

KC Scott · Post by **KC Scott** » Tue Aug 21, 2007 4:21 pm

You guys need to focus more on the S&P 500, rather than the Dow 30. S&P is a staple in almost all 401Ks and typically beats most mutual funds on annual gain.

I believe last week was the bottom of this intratrend correction - market may drift sideways for the next month to 6 weeks. Should begin to see upward momentum after that.