2015 Hot Stove

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Go Coogs'
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Re: 2015 Hot Stove

Post by Go Coogs' »

I'm shocked he has Davis rated higher than Heyward as a free agent. Heyward has the 3rd most WAR among all outfielders since 2012.

His defense is elite and he's a good hitter, not great, but there isn't much out there besides Trout who possess greatness in every category. What Heyward provides is a solid AVG (.270-.290), some pop (15-20 HRs), decent K/BB rates (10-12%) and some speed (15-25 SBs a year) What makes him a superstar is there is no glaring weakness in his game. He doesn't do anything bad. He's slightly above or above average in every offensive category, but that glove and arm and his angles on fly balls are damn near second to none in RF.

Heyward doesn't put up gaudy numbers by any means, but he is the perfect #2 hitter in any lineup.
88 wrote:Go Coogs' (Regular Season Total Points Champ)
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Re: 2015 Hot Stove

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Sudden Sam wrote:Braves appear determined to get some serious value for Shelby Miller. Everybody wants Miller.

D-Back gave up way too much for Miller. Dansby Swanson is a possible superstar. Braves absolutely raped Arizona with that haul of young talent.

Heyward taking less money to sign with Cubs for an 8 year deal is a little surprising. I suppose you could tip your cap to him for wanting to win more than anything, but to leave two more years and $30m on the table is a huge risk IMO. Heyward's body type screams leg and back problems when he's 34 years old and I'm not sure he'll get another good deal when he hits that age.
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Re: 2015 Hot Stove

Post by Shoalzie »

The reason why free agency is so screwy is that you're paying for seasons that these guys have put up with other teams when they made less money and you're getting them with the hopes they can produce for at least half of the years you sign them for. The "smart teams" tend to let their proven guys walk in free agency simply because they may have gotten the best years out of these players at a much more affordable salary.

I think the Cardinals with Pujols is the perfect example. The Cardinals already got a Hall of Fame career and multiple titles out of Pujols. What would be their reason to pay him $30 million dollars a year when you probably got his best years prior to free agency? It's making less and less sense to pay a guy for 8 years at $20-30 million a year when you paid the guy a fraction of that and got the prime years out of them prior to turning 30.

Why are going to pay a guy on the wrong side of 30 years old at an inflated rate? You're better off sticking with a young team with guys at lower salaries that you have control of in their best years (usually early-to-mid 20s). The Red Sox have thrown money away signing guys who've probably already had their best seasons (Sandoval and Ramirez). They did the Giants and Dodgers a favor by taking them off their hands and paying them money they'll never live up to as their careers are heading towards their decline.

Paying guys in their early to mid 20s (Trout, Harper, et al) can be kind of risky because they're not as proven but at least you're going to pay more money for their best seasons. You'd probably rather pay those guys $20 million when they're 23 and only getting better rather than when they're 33 and on the decline. When you're seeing more and more teams winning with homegrown young talent and not free agent mercenaries...where's the desire to pay these aging free agents all this money?
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Re: 2015 Hot Stove

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You're not exactly pulling the curtain back on a secret formula, Shoalzie. Most teams want to do that, but if the market supports deals like the M's gave Cano and the Angels gave Pujols, then what can you do? The Angels are in a bad spot because they lack a whole lot in their farm system to build around Trout. The M's have the talent to be good for a very long time, but Cano is looking like a regressing star already. They might be a seller if things don't get turned around.

Heyward was a unicorn because his UFA came at a great age (26). That doesn't happen too often because his Super 2 status started in his age 20 season. I wanted the Astros to get into the bidding war for Heyward, but when Rasmus accepted the QO, I knew they were out of the running.

If I'm the Astros, I'm locking up Correa, Keuchel, and Springer to long term deals before they hit arbitration. They've got the flexibility and still one of the lowest payrolls in baseball to get the core to stay for 10 years. The farm is still deep with talent and I think the Astros need to sit out the trade wire for a while and see what their fringe MLB ready talent can do (Feliz, Duffy, White, Reed, and Singleton). Give those guys a long leash and see if any of them pan out.

The Astros may need a #5 and I hope its Mike Leake.
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Re: 2015 Hot Stove

Post by Shoalzie »

Heyward is definitely a rare case of a quality players in his mid-20s hitting the open market. More than likely the Cubs will get half or 2/3 of that deal when he's in his prime years. His power numbers have dipped since his big year in 2012 but his average climbed.

I'm sure there's a trend out there of when a guy is in his prime years...what age is the "statistical prime". Unrestricted free agency hits a player after their best years but there the rare cases of guys still being able to hit well into their 30s. Speed and defensive efficiency has to drop off with age but the bat might hang around. Baseball will have those cases of older guys hanging around because they can still hit or they're good enough to pitch an effective inning in relief.

You're seeing younger and younger players making it to the majors. I look at a sport like hockey where top prospects make the NHL at 18 or 19 or 20 and when they're hitting their perceived prime around 25 or 26...they've been in the league for as many as 8 years. Free agency is around the same age in that sport. Some of these guys have a lot of tread off the tire when they're on the market looking to cash in.
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Re: 2015 Hot Stove

Post by ChargerMike »

Cubbies scarfed up Heyward and lackey ahaha..bleepin loaded and favored to win it all. Mace, I'll be making back to Wrigley this year for sure.

Odds to win the 2016 World Series

Chicago Cubs: 11/1
Kansas City Royals: 12/1
Los Angeles Dodgers: 12/1
New York Mets: 12/1
St. Louis Cardinals: 12/1
Toronto Blue Jays: 12/1
Washington Nationals: 12/1
Houston Astros: 14/1
Pittsburgh Pirates: 14/1
Texas Rangers: 14/1
New York Yankees: 18/1
Boston Red Sox: 20/1
Cleveland Indians: 20/1
Detroit Tigers: 20/1
Los Angeles Angels: 20/1
San Francisco Giants: 20/1
Seattle Mariners: 25/1
Tampa Bay Rays: 33/1
Baltimore Orioles: 40/1
Minnesota Twins: 40/1
Arizona Diamondbacks: 50/1
Chicago White Sox: 50/1
Cincinnati Reds: 50/1
Miami Marlins: 50/1
Milwaukee Brewers: 50/1
Oakland Athletics: 50/1
San Diego Padres: 50/1
Atlanta Braves: 100/1
Colorado Rockies: 100/1
Philadelphia Phillies: 200/1
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